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Latest from EPWRF

Comparing IIP and NAS in Their New Incarnations - 30/09/2017
The Index of Industrial Production series, the most significant macroeconomic lead indicator, was revised by the Central Statistics Office in May 2017, two years and three months after revising the National Accounts Statistics series. Even as the new IIP series is more current, growth rates of output do not match those of the NAS. This, along with the significant lag in the periodic revision of IIP, diminishes its usefulness.

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Measuring Manufacturing: Comparing NAS and ASI - 20/05/2017
Bringing attention back to the manufacturing sector and to the statistics available to understand it, this analysis presents the differences in size and rates of growth of the sector when measured using the new National Accounts Statistics series (2011-12) and the Annual Survey of Industries. Clearly, changes in methods of measuring (for instance, the shift from the establishment approach to the enterprise approach) have introduced unexplained changes into measures of the manufacturing sector

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Not for Growth: Analysing Union Budget 2017–18 - 04/03/2017
Sticking to the firm commitment to contain fiscal deficits, the reduced thrust on government spending does not seek to be countercyclical given that economic growth is falling. There is vast scope to step up collection of corporate taxes by widening the tax base through greater compliance.

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Maharashtra Budget – 2016-17: Need to scale up Revenue & not curtail Social Spending - 16/12/2016
Maharashtra accounts for nearly 14% of gross state domestic product (GSDP) of all states. Being one of the largest states in the country, its fiscal strength has a definite bearing on the combined finances of both central and state governments. This article aims to examine the fiscal scenario of the state of Maharashtra by examining trends in its receipts and expenditure of the recent years. In addition, we have considered the actuals for the first half (that is, April-September) of 2016-17 and compared the same with that of the corresponding period of last year.

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Apprehensions about Macroeconomic Scenario - 10/12/2016
Demonetisation and the RBI's monetary policy have created uncertainty in the economy.

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Demonetisation: 1978, the Present and the Aftermath - 26/11/2016
In the context of the demonetisation of ?500 and ?1,000 notes, the issuance of currency and its different denominations are traced over time, while also tracking key macroeconomic features of India's changing economy over the decades. Further, the possible immediate and longer term economic effects of demonetisation are discussed.

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Estimates of High GDP Growth for 2015-16: Not Entirely Convincing - 25/06/2016
In producing the new series, the Central Statistics Office with its rebased National Accounts Statistics has done a studious job of marshalling diverse sources of data and weaving them together into a composite new source. However, the final picture of NAS data would have been more acceptable if better caution was exercised in using new concepts as well as new sources of data, and in weighing the growth results against frequent and extensive revisions. The CSO has failed to refine the growth results juxtaposed against the repetitive and substantial revisions that the data sources have impelled and have completely ignored the analytical construct of gross domestic product at factor cost.

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Underutilised Fiscal Space: Maharashtra’s Budget Post Fourteenth Finance Commission - 21/05/2016
The hike in tax devolution to states by the Fourteenth Finance Commission to give a larger fiscal space to the states has meant sharp cuts for centrally-sponsored schemes. Studying the case of Maharashtra, it is found that without adequate norms and yardsticks of development expenditure, the state has failed to exploit its fiscal potentials.

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Budget 2016: Continuation of Under-taxation and Under-spending - 19/03/2016
Yet another opportunity-this time blessed by windfall gains from lower global crude oil prices-has been bypassed. Budget 2016 sticks to fiscal consolidation and ends up producing a budget where off-budget borrowings help the numbers showing fiscal rectitude and the budget unrealistically increases tax revenue, and within that focuses on the more regressive indirect taxes.

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Continuous Revisions Cast Doubts on GDP Advance Estimates - 05/03/2016
Two recent press releases by the Central Statistics Office substantially revise the new series of National Accounts Statistics. The new releases are more than just routine updates, and entail methodological changes and incorporate new sources of data, perhaps in response to various critiques. Yet, on comparing the advance estimates released with past such estimates, the CSO's latest growth projections once again turn out to be far too optimistic.

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