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What is latest?

Gross Value Added: Why Not the Double Deflation Method for Estimation? - 15/08/2015
To estimate gross value added for the manufacturing sector, the 2011-12 National Accounts Statistics series follows the "single deflation" instead of the "double deflation" method. In this note, it is argued that the double deflation method estimates come closer to the Index of Industrial Production growth estimates, and that this reinforces the view that gross value added of manufacturing is overestimated in the 2011-12 series. This has an impact on overall GDP growth numbers, which too end up lower than in the new series.

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Private Corporate Sector in New NAS Series: Need for a Fresh Look - 18/07/2015
Revisiting the MCA-21-based estimates of the size of the private corporate sector in the rebased National Accounts Statistics, it is argued that the use of a single blow-up factor for non-government non-financial public and private limited companies could be leading to an overestimation of gross value added and gross savings. If there has to be a blow-up, it should be done separately, given the distinct characteristics of public and private limited companies.

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New Estimates of Saving and Capital Formation: Larger Numbers in a Declining Trend - 21/03/2015
The new series of National accounts statistics raises the estimates of saving and investment but it also reconfirms the trend of a decline in domestic saving and capital formation in recent years. Analysing available data, this note attempts to understand the statistical differences in how saving and capital formation are measured in the new series.

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GDP Sectoral Growth Rates: What Is Driving Growth? - 28/02/2015
An analysis of the new 2011-12 series of National Accounts Statistics to understand the trends of GDP growth and the sector-wise break-up. Data up to the advance estimates for 2014-15 are explored. The service sector continues to lead growth, manufacturing shows a revival, while agriculture has once again slowed down.

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New Series of National Accounts - A Review - 14/02/2015
The new series of national accounts released by the Central Statistics Office has made a number of conceptual changes and has tapped new sources of data. This note presents a discussion of the key modifications in this new series of national accounts.

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Release of New Series of National Accounts (Base Year 2011-12) - 02/06/2015
EPWRF is pleased to further update the New Series of National Accounts with the fresh Advance Estimates of National Income for 2014-15 and Quarterly Estimates for all quarters of 2012-13 and 2013-14 and three quarters of 2014-15.

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Recent Trends in Inter-Sectoral Terms of Trade - 31/01/2015
Revisiting an old debate about terms of trade of agriculture vis-à-vis other sectors in the Indian economy, it is argued that the ToT of agriculture has remained favourable for a large part of the post-liberalisation phase, with it being most favourable since the mid-2000s. This is despite rising costs of production, high rural inflation, and rising human labour costs. It is further argued that large farmers seem to have benefited the most from the favourable ToT, which helps understand the narrowing inequality between rural and urban India, along with rising inequality within rural India.

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Investment Revival: Not by Lending Rates Alone - 27/06/2015
An analysis of bank lending rates suggests that reducing the lending rate, while important, may not be as critical to reviving investment as it is made out to be. The three interest rate regimes followed over the last two decades or so are compared here and it is found that the current base rate regime is by far the most stable, and is one which reduces uncertainty of interest costs.

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Monthly Economic Review - October 2014 - 30/11/2014
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has announced Minimum Support Prices (MSPs) for certain rabi crops of 2014-15. Industrial output improved in September 2014 from the previous two months, while services output came to a standstill in October 2014. Both wholesale and retail inflation eased in October 2014, heightening expectations of a rate cut by the central bank. Fiscal health continues to be worrisome as revenue collections lag, six months into the fiscal. These uncertainties over growth revival continue to prevail.

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Financial Markets Review - Fortnight Ending 25 July 2014 - 25/07/2014
Moderate pick up in global economic activity helped the risk appetite of investors resulting in a strong rise in the portfolio inflows in to emerging market economies in the recent period. In conjunction with improved business sentiments amid firming up of industrial growth and exports, the domestic financial market activity also got a fillip.

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