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Current Economic Statistics and Review For the Week 
Ended December 19, 2008 (51st Weekly Report of 2008)

 Theme of the week:

The Changing Pattern of Primary Equity Market Mobilisations *

Since the repeal of the Controller of Capital Issues (CCI) Act in 1992, the primary equity market in India has seen a paradigm shift in its regulation, technology applied and structure of the market, reflecting the spirit of the reforms in the capital market. The processes involved have been straightened significantly by reducing the time lags and delays, both in terms of the receipt of applications and reimbursement of funds, with the latest introduction being the new process of Application Supported by Blocked Amounts (ASBA) under which banks are allowed to block initial public offerings (IPOs) application money in the applicant’s bank account till the time of allotment of shares. Under ASBA, only that amount proportionate to the share allotment will be transferred from the account.  

In the last fifteen years, the primary mobilisations have jumped rather sharply improving the depth of the market as well as reflecting the diverse nature of companies appearing to tap the market. One of the avowed objectives of capital issue polices has been to encourage equity cult among retail investors, but neither the reform measures appear foolproof nor the corporate behavior appears above board. Every attempt is made by the companies to cut corners and defeat the broader objectives of public policies. The recent shift towards private placement of equity by an overwhelming number of companies rather than relying on public offerings, is a classic case of such loopholes in policies allowing private placement and the companies merrily taking advantage of them. The brief structure of the primary market has been enumerated in the chart 1.

Chart 2: Different Kinds of Issues in the Primary Market

The trends of mobilisations in the recent years have been reflective of the economic activity with particular emphasis on the industrial growth. During the period of lower industrial growth, that is, between 1997-98 and 2002-2003, the mobilisations have been rather subdued, but with the revival of the economic activity, there has been a sharp jump in the primary mobilisations.  In the current financial year, the mobilisations through public offerings route- the initial public offering (IPOs) and follow-on public offers (FPO)- have dipped rather sharply while among the private placement route, that is, qualified institutional placements (QIP) have slipped but mobilisations through preferential allotment have remained firm. If the issuers continue to place significance on the private placement route then it would have adverse implications for the retail investors as they are the ones who would miss the opportunity to be part of the growth stories as well as the spread of the equity-cult across investors would suffer. While it is necessary that the needs of issuers be addressed, the goal of spreading equity culture should not be jeopardized.

Brief Background  

            Under the era of CCI, the public issues were regulated and consequently even the issue price was to be fixed by the issuer within the formula provided thereof. With the repeal of CCI Act, the role of market forces in the determination of pricing of issues and allocation of resources for competing uses assumed significance. The issuers of securities were allowed to raise capital from the market without requiring any consent from any authority for either making the issue or pricing it. However, this unfettered freedom had led to a phenomenon of vanishing companies, that is, companies after raising funds from the market disappeared usurping investors’ money without leaving a trail; this led to the introduction of stringent norms of access to the market. With significant emphasis being placed on disclosure-based regulations, there has been remarkable improvement in disclosure standards that have enhanced transparency. Among the significant changes in the infrastructure and process flow, the introduction of the book-building mechanism which, on one had, facilitated better process of mobilization of resources, price discovery and on the other, gave rise to a series of irregularities in 2006 which again led to establishment of stricter norms of the know-your-client (KYC) norms and other related requirements.

Despite the chequered phase of the primary equity market, the mobilisations from the market have grown substantially during this phase. The market has contributed to financial deepening by encouraging diverse industries to tap the market and led to significant mobilisation of funds.  

Upsurge in Equity Mobilisations 

 As referred to earlier, that the primary market mobilisations have reflected the underlying economic activity which went from a phase of lower growth during the mid-nineties to a buoyant growth in the second half of the present decade. As shown in Chart 2, initially the mobilisations from primary equity market have dipped from the peaks of Rs 27,633 crore raised in 1994-95 to a low of Rs 4,030 crore in 2002-03. With the bullish sentiments in the secondary market, the primary market mobilisations have steeply jumped to Rs 33,508 crore and further to Rs 87,029 crore in 2007-08 (Table 1). But, it has been short-lived for during April-September 2008, the amounts raised have fallen equally sharply to Rs 2,032 crore as compared with Rs 32,646 crore in the corresponding period of 2007-08.

Table 1: Trends in Primary Market Mobilisation (Amount in Rs crore)

Year

Total

Category Wise

Public

Rights

No.

Amount

No.

Amount

No.

Amount

 1993-94

1143

24372

773

15449

370

8923

 1994-95

1692

27633

1342

21045

350

6588

 1995-96

1725

20804

1426

14240

299

6564

 1996-97

884

14284

753

11565

131

2719

 1997-98

111

4570

62

2862

49

1708

 1998-99

58

5587

32

5019

26

568

 1999-00

93

7817

65

6257

28

1560

 2000-01*

151

6108

124

5378

27

729

 2001-02

35

7543

20

6502

15

1041

 2002-03

26

4070

14

3639

12

431

 2003-04

57

23272

35

22265

22

1007

 2004-05

60

28256

34

24640

26

3616

 2005-06

139

27382

103

23294

36

4088

 2006-07

124

33508

85

29797

39

3711

 2007-08

124

87029

92

54511

32

32518

*: Discrepancy as per the source.

Source: SEBI, Handbook of Statistics 2008.

Diversification of Issuers  

            As shown in Table 2, the industry-wise classification of capital raised through public and rights issue shows that it has become more diversified with a wider set of industries tapping the market. While telecommunications, power, cement and constructions have begun to raise larger amounts, the dominance of banks and financial institutions witnessed during the earlier phase until 2002-03 has declined somewhat in the recent years, that is, between 2003-04 and 2007-08. They accounted for nearly 85 % of the total amount raised in 2002-03 to a low of 7% in 2006-07.

Increasing Dominance of Private Placement of equity  

            Resembling the primary corporate debt market, the primary equity market has recently witnessed substantial mobilisations through the private placement route as compared with public offerings. The private placement of equity is through two modes: the QIP, which was introduced in May 2006, and preferential allotment.  

Qualified Institution Placement

Table 3: Capital Raised from the Primary Market through QIPs

Period

NSE

BSE

Total*

 

Amount (Rs crore)

2006-07

4530

4963

4963

2007-08

24679

25525

25525

2008-09 until Sep

75

75

75

* Total includes the aggregate issues listed on both the exchanges which includes some overlaps                                  Source: Annual Report, 2007-08, SEBI

Around May 2006, notwithstanding the robust growth of the primary market, an element of concern was expressed that there were relatively less number of follow-on public offers (FPOs) by listed issuers as against the backdrop of an increasing number of overseas offerings by Indian companies through global depository receipts (GDRs)/foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCB) issues. During the period from 2001-02 to 2004-05, the number of FPOs increased from Nil to 6, while the number of GDR/FCCB offerings increased nearly 14 times (3 to 42). It was noticed that the listed companies preferred GDR/FCCB route on account of its timeliness and cost effectiveness. While, on the one hand, this was resulting in a gradual ‘export’ of the domestic market, on the other hand, it was impacting the depth of the domestic markets. Hence, with a view to making the domestic market more competitive and as a step towards reducing the ‘export’ of the capital market, the SEBI introduced the system of qualified institution’s placement (QIP) wherein a listed issuer issues equity shares or securities convertible into equity shares to qualified institutional buyers (QIB) in terms of provisions of Chapter XIIIA of SEBI (DIP) guidelines.  

As shown in Table 3, the mobilisations through QIP jumped to Rs 25,525 crore in 2007-08 given the buoyancy in the secondary equity market, but following the fall in stock indices since the beginning of the current financial year, the amounts raised have slipped to a meager amount of Rs 75 crore.  

Preferential Allotment

The preferential issue of equity shares/ fully convertible debentures (FCDs)/ partly convertible debentures (PCDs) or any other financial instruments which would be converted into or exchanged with equity shares at a later date, by listed companies whose equity share capital is listed on any stock exchange, to any select group of persons under Section 81(1A) of the Companies Act 1956 on private placement basis shall be governed by these guidelines.  

Preferential allotment is a way of infusing fresh equity in the business by issuing shares or warrants to the specified entities at specific prices to a promoter or promoter group or a person acting in concert (PAC) or institutional players. The basic reasoning is that if the promoter is pumping in money into the business, they must be confident of its prospects. And when other institutions pick up preferential shares, this also adds to the confidence factor.  

In the early 90s, the regulations on preferential allotment were very stringent. As per the first Sebi takeover code in 1994, after the preferential allotment, the allottee had to go through a mandatory open offer to the public. This rule made the preferential route a bit averse for them. Due to this, preferential route was out of favour. Later, Sebi set up a committee under the chairmanship of Justice Bhagwati, which recommended exempting the need to make an open offer. The rationale was that infusion of capital into the company was in general interest of all shareholders. And then in 1997 the takeover code came into being and allotment via the preferential route was exempted from making open public offers. Shareholders could also send in their approvals through a postal ballot. When these restrictions were cleared, promoters seemed to make hay. They then used the preferential allotment route to make unusual profits at the expense of the shareholders. And this was due to the fact that there was no basis for pricing a preferential allotment. Due to this, various promoters, especially of foreign companies listed on Indian bourses, were seen allotting equity shares to themselves at comparatively lower prices than the prevailing market price. And subsequently, selling the shares in the secondary market to make a quick killing at the expense of the existing shareholder. During the height of the IT boom, many new software companies made preferential allotment to mutual funds at a price higher than that prevailing in the market. But then, such cases are few and far between.  

But, now things have changed, the current guidelines state that the price of the issue must be the average of the weekly high and low of the closing prices of the related shares quoted on the stock exchange during the six months or last two weeks preceding the relevant date, whichever is higher. The company is also required to disclose the details of the number of shares allotted, and details about the allottee. It also has to disclose the rationale of raising the funds.  

Private Placement exceeding Public Offers

Table 4: Resources Raised through Public and Rights Issues

 

2008-09 (Apr-Sept)

2007-08 (Apr-Sept)

April-Mar 2008

Particulars

Number of issues

Amount (Rs crore)

Number of issues

Amount (Rs crore)

No

Amount (Rs crore)

Public Offers

 

 

 

 

 

 

Public Issues

19

2032

52

32646

92

54511

 IPOs

19

2032

48

21038

85

42595

 FPOs

0

0

4

11607

7

11916

Rights Issues

14

10377

11

947

32

32518

Total

33

12409

63

33593

124

87029

Private Placements

 

 

 

 

 

 

QIPs

1

75

12

9132

36

25525

Preferential Allotment*

 

 

191 #

28876 #

398

61589

BSE

217

33529

Na

Na

 

 

NSE

188

17664

Na

Na

 

 

Total

218

33604

 

 

434

87114

Grand Total

 

 

 

 

558

174143

*Preferential issues are classified according to the month in which they are listed and may include common issues reported to both the exchanges. #: Apr-Oct 2007. Na: Not available.

Source: SEBI Bulletin, October 2008

 As seen in Table 4, it is interesting to note that in 2007-08 amidst the buoyancy in the primary market, the amounts raised through public (IPOs, FPOs and rights issues) offer stood at Rs 87,029 crore while through the private placement route, it amounted to Rs 87,114 crore, thus exceeding the amount raised through the public offer route. Further, in April-September 2008, the mobilisations through preferential allotment have continued to remain robust while all others have slumped against the backdrop of falling secondary market.  

Conclusion  

In the past fifteen years, there appears to be a change in the pattern of mobilisations from the equity market with different industries tapping the market and earlier dominance of banks and financial institutions appear to be declining.

Despite the issues with the CCI, there was a clear policy to spread equity-cult in the capital market, the policy then prevalent was encouraging allotment to the applicants of the lowest lot with the highest weightage and scaling down to the applicants of the highest quantity with almost the lowest weightage. However, in the recent times with the shifts in the technology application, process flow, structural changes and relatively liberal regulatory environment, the issuers appear to be moving in favour of private placement which would not be in the interest of the retail investors and also would not lead to deepening and widening of the market.  

_______

* This note is prepared by Piyusha D Hukeri. 

Highlights of  Current Economic Scene

Agriculture  

Food Corporation of India (FCI) is expected to have record foodgrain procurement of 51 million tonnes this year comprising 28.5 million tonnes of rice and 22.68 million tonnes of wheat, respectively. Up to 1 December 2008, stock of total foodgrains (wheat and rice) in the central pool is reported to be around 35.2 million tonnes, including 15.6 million tonnes of rice and 19.6 million tonnes of wheat, respectively. This is around 96% more than the last year's corresponding stock of 18.4 million tonnes, and more than double the buffer stock norms of 16.2 million tonnes.

State government of Madhya Pradesh has announced paddy bonus of Rs 25 per quintal over and above the minimum support price (MSP) fixed by the central government. Similarly it is estimated that this year procurement of coarse grains would be at Rs 840 per quintal.

As per official sources, area cultivated under wheat is expected to augment by 3%-4% in 2009 due to good monsoon and remunerative prices. It is predicted that if the pace of sowings continued till the last week of December, then the total area under wheat would be around 29.3 million hectares, displaying a rise from last year’s acreage of 28.19 million hectares. The central government has targeted to cover 28.5 million hectares under wheat during this rabi season. Up to 12 December 2008, acreage under wheat is reported to be around 21.36 million hectares, up from last year’s 20.47 million hectares. It is expected that bumper wheat output in 2009 and huge output in 2007 and 2008, would compel government to lift the curbs on export of foodgrains and also relax stockholding limits.

Cereal Output                            (in million tonnes)

 

2006

2007E

2008F

Wheat

69.4

75.8

78

Coarse grains

32.5

40.5

36.3

Rice (paddy)

140

144.6

147

Total

241.9

260.9

261.3

E = estimated, F=forecast     Source: Media

As per the latest report by Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), India ’s cereal output would remain stable this year despite favourable climatic conditions. It is predicted that cereal output would rise marginally by 0.15% to 261.3 million tonnes in 2008 as compared to 260.9 million tonnes in the previous year. Rice output is expected to rise to 147 million tonnes this year as against 144.6 million tonnes during the corresponding period last year due to better paddy crop. Similarly, wheat crop size in 2008 is forecasted to rise to 78 million tonnes this year from 75.8 million tonnes last year due to continuing relatively high prices and government support policies.

Estimates by Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA) reiterates that vegetable oil imports into the country is likely to rise by 3.17% during this oil year (November - October) on stagnant domestic production and increasing local demand. Total oilseed output in the kharif season is estimated to be at 16.5 million tonnes and rabi oilseed production is forecasted to be at 10 million tonnes. The acreage so far, during the ongoing rabi oilseed crop has risen to 8.375 million hectares from 7.7 million hectares a year ago.

According to latest import data released by the Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA) reveals that total imports of vegetable oil has increased by 30% to 5.55 lakh tonnes in the month of November 2008, as compared to 4.28 lakh tonnes during the same period a year ago. It includes 5.19 lakh tonnes of edible oils and 36,310 tonnes of non-edible oils. Imports of palm products including CPO and RBD palmolein has been reported to be around 3.63 lakh tonnes and 1.37 lakh tonnes during the same period, as compared with 3.14 lakh tonnes and 30,014 tonnes in November 2007.Import of refined edible oils increased to 1.37 lakh tonnes and that of crude oil to 3.81 lakh tonnes. Import of non-edible oils, declined by 55% to 36,310 tonnes as compared with 80,592 tonnes in the previous period. The total import of soybean oil was at 7.59 lakh tonnes as compared with 40.44 lakh tonnes of CPO.

National Agriculture Cooperative Marketing Federation (Nafed) has procured 30 lakh quintals of cotton valued at Rs 900 crore till 17 December, 2008 at the minimum support price (MSP). Procurement of cotton is going on at a faster pace from the sates like Gujarat, Punjab, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra . Procurement of cotton during this cotton season is expected to be around 30 lakh quintals.

International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) retreated that global cotton trade is likely to fall by 12% to 7.3 million tonnes in 2008-09, following uncertainty in the global financial crisis and tightening credit availability for spinning mills. Imports of cotton in the world would decline mainly due to 24% drop in imports by China to 1.9 million tonnes and further fall in imports from other countries by 7% to 5.4 million tonnes. Usage of cotton by mills is expected to fall by 6% to 24.9 million tonnes in the next year. Meanwhile, global cotton production is also expected to decrease by six per cent to 24.6 million tonnes, driven by a decline in cotton area caused by increased competition from grains and oilseeds.

Prices of poultry have dropped by 25%-30% since last one month due to outbreak of bird flu in northeastern states of Assam . This outbreak is expected to affect country’s export to traditional overseas markets. According to an official from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), countries like Muscat , UAE and few other countries have put imports of poultry products from India on their watch lists. The major markets for exports of poultry-products are the UAE, Kuwait , Oman , Germany and Japan .

Inflation

The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 6.84% for the week ended 06/12/2008 (over 08/12/2007) as compared to 8.00% for the previous week ended 29/11/2008 and 3.84% during the corresponding week ended 08/12/2007 of the previous year. The rate of inflation, based on average monthly WPI, which was 10.97%  for the month of October 2008, has eased by 2.31 percentage points to 8.66% in November, 2008.  The index for the major group, Primary Articles, declined by 0.4% to 249.0  from 249.9   for the previous week. The index for Food Articles group declined by 0.5% to 243.4  from 244.7 for the previous week due to lower prices of moong (4%), urad (3%), fruits & vegetables and tea (2% each) and barley (1%). Due to higher prices of fodder (2%) and  groundnut seed, gingelly seed and raw cotton (1% each), the index for Non-Food Articles group rose by 0.1% to 234.6 from 234.4 for the previous week However, the prices of niger seed (18%), raw rubber (4%) and raw wool (1%) declined.  

The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point-to-point basis, for Primary Articles stood at 11.81%  for the week ended 06/12/2008 as compared to 11.66%  in the previous week.  It was 4.55% as on 08/12/2007 i.e. a year ago. For Food Articles, the annual rate of inflation stood at 10.19% for the week ended 06/12/2008 as compared to 10.52%  in the previous week.  It was 2.51% as on 08/12/2007 i.e. a year ago. The index for the major group, Fuel, Power, Light & Lubricants, declined by 3.7% to 332.1 from 345.0 for the previous week due to lower prices of naphtha (23%), furnace oil (15%), bitumen (11%), petrol (10%), aviation turbine fuel (7%), high speed diesel oil (6%), light diesel oil (5%) and lubricants (4%). The index for Manufactures Products declined by 0.3% to 202.4  from 203.1 for the previous week.

The index for Food Products group rose by 0.2% to 199.5  from 199.2  for the previous week due to higher prices of gur and bran (all kinds) (4% each), atta (2%) and cotton seed oil, groundnut oil and ghee (1% each). However, the prices of rice bran oil (4%), coconut oil (3%), imported edible oil (2%) and sooji (rawa) (1%) declined. Due to lower prices of texturised yarn (5%), the index for Textiles group declined by 0.1% to 141.5 from 141.7 for the previous week.

The index for Chemicals & Chemical Products group declined by 0.6% to 222.5 from 223.8  for the previous week due to lower prices of benzene (41%), purified terephthalic acid (pta) (24%), bopp film (11%) and liquid chlorine (1%). However, the prices of p.v.c. resins (3%) moved up. The index for Basic Metals Alloys & Metal Products group declined by 1.1% to 280.4  from 283.6  for the previous week due to lower prices of basic pig iron and foundary pig iron (7% each), joist & rolls and oromild steel & tensile plates (6% each), wire (all kinds) (5%), zinc (4%), skelps, cr coils and zinc ingots (3% each), cr sheets and angles, channels & sections (2% each) and steel sheets, plates & strips and other iron steel (1% each).  However, the prices of ms bars & rounds (3%) moved up. Due to lower prices of car chassis (assembled) (3%) the index for Transport Equipment & Parts group declined by 0.5% to 176.5  from 177.3  for the previous week.

For the week ended 11/10/2008, the final wholesale price index for All Commodities (Base:1993-94=100) stood at 239.3 as compared to 238.8 and annual rate of inflation based on final index, calculated on point to point basis, stood at  11.30% as compared to  11.07 %  reported earlier vide press note dated 24/10/2008.  

Financial Markets  

Capital Markets

Primary Market  

As per media sources, the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has decided to continue with the mandatory grading of initial public offers (IPOs), amid doubts on the relevance of the present system as the gradings do not reflect in the performance of these issues in the markets. In the absence of sufficient experience to vouch for the current system of mandatory grading or to counter it, the SEBI Board decided to maintain the status quo earlier this month. The decision has been taken as members of the Primary Market Advisory Committee (PMAC) felt that it is too early to come to a conclusion on the effectiveness of the present policy of mandatory IPO grading. SEBI had made grading mandatory for all IPOs where draft offer documents were to be filed with the regulator on or after May 1, 2007, and made issuers responsible for the cost of grading. Since then, about 100 IPOs have been graded by credit rating agencies. It has been decided that the decision would be reviewed, based on the experience gained.  

Secondary Market  

During the week key benchmark indices- the BSE Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty regained psychological 10,000 and 3,000 level respectively, on buying support from foreign institutional investors. Despite a see-saw movement through the week, markets ended in the green, in anticipation of the second stimulus package and a further reduction in interest rates. A Fed rate cut for interbank lending from 1% to between 0-0.25 % and expectations of auto bailout were positive for the global markets. Fall in inflation to a 9-month low and slump in crude oil prices further bolstered the sentiment. Inflation dipped sharply to 6.84 % (8 % in the previous week) during the week. Despite the OPEC supply cut, oil tanked to $36 levels, indicating a slump in demand. The BSE Sensex ended 410 points (4.2 %) higher to close at 10,100 during the week. The BSE Mid-Cap gained 214 points or 7% to 3,264 and the BSE Small-Cap index advanced 213 points or 6% to 3,744 in the week. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex. The S&P CNX Nifty gained 156 points or 5.3% to 3,078 during the week.           

According to SEBI, the liquidity crunch faced by the corporate sector has been behind the huge redemption pressure and erosion of assets under management (AUM). The AUM of the mutual fund industry contracted 20.7% from Rs.5.4 lakh crore as on 31 August 2008 to Rs 4.3 lakh crore as on 31 October 2008. During this period, liquid and debt schemes, which contribute more than 65% to the total AUM, witnessed a fall in AUM from Rs 3.61 lakh crore to Rs 2.90 lakh crore. These schemes invest in money market and debt instruments issued largely by corporate, banks and non-banking finance companies (NBFCs). The stress in liquidity led to the market for certificates of deposit (CDs) and commercial papers (CP) drying up. Based on the data for top five mutual funds, SEBI had observed that of the total assets in debt (excluding open-ended debt schemes) and liquid schemes, 45% are in CDs, 23% in debentures, 17.4% in pass through certificates (PTCs) and 9% in CPs. Approximately, 90% of the debt portfolio of mutual funds is represented by highest rated paper. 

Derivatives  

It has been yet another winning stretch for Nifty futures, which gained over 5.5 % to end the week at 3082.4 points. This time around Nifty futures also ruled at a wider premium during most part of the week. It, however, settled at about five-point premium to the spot. Rollover of open interest (OI) positions also picked up moderately. The Nifty futures saw a rollover of about 31 %, slightly higher than that of the previous month. The market-wide rollover has been also a shade better at 32-35 %. Despite breaching the 2950-mark, Nifty future struggled to move past the 3100-mark last week. It is now hovering at about 38.5 against its previous week’s level of 49.23 points. The cumulative foreign institutional investors (FII) positions as a percentage of the total gross market position on the derivative segment as on 19 December stood at 30.58 %. FIIs were predominantly net buyers during most part of the week. They now hold index futures worth about Rs 9,850 crore (Rs 8,842 crore) and stock future worth about Rs 12,314 crore (Rs 10,649 crore).Their index options holding stood higher at about Rs 15,310 crore (Rs 13,581 crore).   

Government Securities Market

Primary Market  

On 17 December 2008, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) auctioned 91-day and 364 day Treasury Bills (T-Bills) for the notified amounts of Rs 5,000 crore and Rs 1,000 crore, respectively. The cut off yield for 91 day and 364 day T-Bills has been set at 5.45% and 5.36%, respectively.  

Secondary Market  

Bonds rallied during the week spurred by surging deposits into public sector banks and sliding global oil prices. The bond rally continues unabated, as the benchmark 10-year government bonds completed the biggest weekly gain in a decade to end the session at a yield of 5.56%. Dealers are hoping that slowing inflation will allow the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to reduce borrowing costs. The yield on the 8.24% benchmark bond has dropped 66 bps this week to end Friday at 5.56%. The yield has now fallen almost 400 bps from its high in July ’08. Bonds have been rallying after the Fed cut its benchmark rate to a record low this week on speculation that RBI, too, would further slash its policy rate after three reductions this quarter.

The average trade volume during the week averaged Rs 15,000 crore or about Rs 3,500 crore more than the average NSE equity turnover per day during the week. The outlook for debt remained positive.  

Bond Market  

In a bid to strengthen know your customer (KYC) norms, the RBI released draft guidelines on the revised procedures for the reporting the transfer of shares or convertible debentures, by way of sale, from resident to non-resident and vice versa under the foreign direct investment (FDI) scheme, on 19 December 2008. The procedure has been revised to capture the details of investment in a more comprehensive manner. Accordingly, the proforma for reporting of inflow or outflow details on account of remittances received or made in connection with the transfer of shares or convertible debentures, by way of sale, submitted by the bank to the RBI has also been modified. The banks receiving the remittance are required to submit a KYC report on the non-resident investor.  

During the week under review, five FIs/Banks and three corporates tapped the bond market through issuance of bonds to mobilise an amounts of Rs 3,725 crore.  

Profile of Major Commercial Bond Issues for the Week Ending December 19, 2008.

Sr

Issuing Company / Rating

Nature of instrument

Coupon in % per annum and tenor

Amount in Rs. crore

 No

 

FIs / Banks

 

 

 

1

Punjab National Bank
AAA by Crisil, Care

Upper tier II Bonds

8.95% with a step up of 50 basis points if call is not exercised for 15 years and call @ end of 10 years.

500

2

State Bank of India
AAA by Crisil

Upper tier II Bonds

8.90% with a step up of 50 basis points if call is not exercised for 15 years and call @ end of 10 years.

 2000
 (500)

3

National Housing Bank
AAA by Crisil, Fitch

Bonds

9.40 % for 5 years.

350

4

Union Bank of India
AA+ by Fitch, Icra

Lower tier II Bonds

9.50 % for 10 years.

200

5

Uco Bank
AA by Crisil, Care

Lower tier II Bonds

9.75 % for 10 years.

275

 

Corporates

 

 

 

1

Pidilite Industries Ltd
AAA by Crisil

Bonds

10.20 % for 3 years

75

2

Grasim Industries Ltd
AAA by Crisil, Care

Bonds

8.80 % for 5 years

100

3

Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd
AAA by Care

Bonds

11.50 % for 3 years

225

 

Total
The amount shown in brackets above denotes the green shoe option of the issue.

3725
(500)

 

Note Source: Various Media Sources

 Foreign Exchange Market  

Snapping its four-day winning streak, the rupee on Friday fell by 31 paise against the dollar to close at 47.26/27 amid expectations of cuts in interest rates as inflation has declined to a nine-month low. The domestic currency resumed weak at 47.20/22 a dollar and later fluctuated between 47.36 and 46.86 on alternate bouts of dollar buying and selling during the day. One, three, six and twelve month forward premia, as a result, ended the week at 5.73% (5.30%), 4.59% (4.61 %), 3.19% (3.26%) and 2.28 % (2.30%). Three-day forward premia weakened, as the overnight arbitrage options weakened, with the narrowing domestic call money and Fed fund spreads. Overnight premia was 3.9 % last weekend, down from the previous week’s level of 5.20%.           

India 's foreign exchange reserves went up for the second consecutive week by $ 2.767 billion to $ 250.453-billion for the week ended December 12 as against $ 247.686-billion in the previous week. The foreign currency assets (FCA), during the week, rose by $ 2.757 billion during the week to $ 241.725 billion as compared to $ 238.968-billion in the previous week.

Currency Derivatives  

The SEBI is exploring the possibilities of allowing more market players including foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and non-resident Indians (NRIs) to participate in the currency futures market. This move may help in bringing more depth into the currency futures market. At the sidelines of the 'Conference on Securities Market 2008’ organised by National Institute of Securities Markets (NISM), CB Bhave, chairman, SEBI, told reporters that the regulator is exploring the possibilities of allowing more market players including NRIs to participate in the currency futures. The regulator is looking how futures are functioning and the investment pattern in the futures market. Currently, there are more than 1,400 FIIs registered with SEBI. The financial institutions, banks and retail investors are allowed to participate in the trading.  

Commodities Futures Derivatives  

On 15 December 2008, after the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) chairman BC Khatua said that the regulator may lift the ban on futures trading in four banned commodities in few weeks, the government gave another indication that it was seriously considering reviewing the ban on futures trading in wheat, rice, tur (pigeon pea) and urad (black gram). Union agriculture and consumer affairs minister Sharad Pawar said in Parliament that futures markets only provided a platform for price discovery and were not responsible for any rise or fall in the price of any commodity. He also added that the ban on futures trading had not harmed the country’s agriculture growth. The government had banned futures trading in four agri commodities in 2007 after the then Left allies blamed malpractices in the futures market as being responsible for the hike in the open market prices of these commodities.  

Sugar futures slipped on 19 December on profit-taking and expectations bulk buyers, such as makers of cold drinks, may trim buying during the winter. The benchmark January contract on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange had risen about 5 % since 4 December 2008.  

According to sources silver prices gained nearly 11% over the last two weeks on fresh demand from jewellery and gift manufacturers ably supported by higher prices in international markets. Silver spot prices in Ahmedabad market have jumped up to Rs 17,802 per kg from Rs 17,050 per kg in early December. Similarly, MCX March 2009 futures also rose by nearly 11% to trade at Rs 18,080 per kg on Thursday, from Rs 16,488 in the last third week of November.  

According to World Gold Council (WGC), domestic demand for investment in gold is growing by as much as 15% in the last two months. “With other investment avenues like stocks, mutual funds (MFs) and banks falling, some by even 70% in a year, investment in gold has climbed the demand graph by 14-15% in October and November,” said WGC vice-president Shivaram.  

Crude oil futures prices on the national commodity bourses fell sharply during the week which has been the biggest weekly fall of nearly 15% in the recent months as concerns about falling global oil demand amid economic slowdown and rising inventories offset big production cut announced by OPEC. Crude oil January 2009 contracts fell sharply by 14.45% to finish at Rs 2,026 per barrel on Friday over the previous week. The January futures contract, which expired on 19 December 2008, tumbled more than 7% to as low as $33.44a barrel. Falling crude prices could pressurise the bullion pack. Gold future prices continued its rally in the previous week as sharp fall in dollar against major currencies supported the yellow metal. Gold February 2009 contracts finished firm at Rs 12,711 per 10 gram over the previous week. Prices touched a high of $882.40 per ounce on 17 December 2008 before falling on account of profit booking by traders at higher levels. Weak macro economic data from the US has boosted gold’s appeal as a safe asset in the times of uncertainty. Silver prices are also moving in tandem with gold prices. Silver March 2009 contracts were higher by 2.58% to trade at Rs 17,961 per kg over the previous week. Copper February 2009 contracts were lower by 9.50% to settle at Rs 142.55 per kg over the previous week.  

Banking  

On a review of ECB policy and to promote development of mining, exploration and refinery sectors in the country, the definition of infrastructure for the purpose of availing ECB has been expanded to include mining, exploration and refining. Accordingly, the infrastructure sector henceforth is defined as (i) power, (ii) telecommunication, (iii) railways, (iv) road including bridges, (v) sea port and airport, (vi) industrial parks, (vii) urban infrastructure (water supply, sanitation and sewage projects) and (viii) mining, exploration and refining.  

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) has concluded an Agreement dated June 24, 2008 with the Myanma Foreign Trade Bank, Myanmar, making available to the latter, a Line of Credit (LOC) of US$ 64 million for financing eligible goods and services, including consultancy services from India relating to financing of three transmission lines, viz., Thahtay Chaung - Oakshitpin 230 KV; Thahtay Chaung - Thandwe-Maei -Ann 230 KV and Thandwe-Athoke 230 KV to be executed by Power Grid Corporation of India in Myanmar.  

Exim Bank has concluded an Agreement dated June 24, 2008 with the Myanma Foreign Trade Bank, Myanmar, making available to the latter, a Line of Credit (LOC) of US$ 20 million for financing eligible goods and services, including consultancy services from India relating to setting up of an Aluminum Conductor Steel Reinforced (ACSR) wire manufacturing factory, with total annual output capacity of ACSR 10,000 tonnes and galvanized iron wire 4000 tones in the Myanmar.  

Based on a review, ECB policy has been modified as under: i) ECB up to US$ 500 million per borrower per financial year has been permitted for rupee expenditure and/or foreign currency expenditure for permissible end-uses under the Automatic Route . The requirement of minimum maturity period of seven years for ECB more than US$ 100 million for Rupee capital expenditure by the borrowers in the infrastructure sector has been dispensed with. ii) In order to further develop the telecom sector in the country, payment for obtaining license/permit for 3G Spectrum will be considered an eligible end-use for the purpose of ECB. iii) ECB proceeds were required to be parked overseas until actual requirement in India and such proceeds could be invested in specified liquid assets. Henceforth, borrowers have been granted flexibility to either keep these funds off-shore or keep it with the overseas branches / subsidiaries of Indian banks abroad or to remit these funds to India for credit to their Rupee accounts with AD Category-I banks in India , pending utilisation for permissible end-uses. However, as hitherto, the rupee funds will not be permitted to be used for investment in capital markets, real estate or for intercorporate lending.  

Corporate  

Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries has raised Rs 996 crore in two tranches through the issue of debentures. Edelweiss Capital arranged finances for the company.  The first tranche secured redeemable non-convertible debentures; valued at Rs 498 crore had a maturity of 10 years and carried an annual coupon rate of 10.75 per cent. The second had a maturity of three years and carried a coupon rate of 10.10 per cent.  

Passenger carmaker Ford India is planning to delay its capacity expansion plans to reach 200,000 vehicles at its Chennai plant by 2010, due to the global slowdown in demand for automobiles. The Indian subsidiary of US-based auto maker is however, sticking to its investment commitment of $500 million in Chennai plant, particularly for manufacturing a new small car, and diesel engines for domestic and export markets.

The world’s largest carmaker, Toyota has decided to cut production in India by 30 per cent this month, but is not holding back its planned investment of Rs 3,200 crore. The company, which operates in India through a joint venture with the Kirloskar Group, Toyota Kirloskar Motor (TKM) announced that the slowdown in the auto market has forced it to revise its sales target in India for this year. The company has revised the sales target due to falling sales. The company will decide about the future production for January and February 2009 depending on the market conditions. The company had sold 54,181 cars in 2007 in Indian market. The company posted a fall of 48.6 per cent in sales in November this year at 2,087 units compared to 4,056 units in the same month last year. 

ACC, the country’s largest cement manufacturer has become the first cement company to shut down one of its plants in Himachal Pradesh for 15 days effective from December 23, 2008. The decision has come within a month of ACC concrete (ACC’s wholly owned subsidiary) laying off 25 per cent of its employees. The plant’s capacity at Gangal–II is 4,800 tonnes a day and on an annual basis is 2.4 million tonnes.   

Intel, Boeing, Lockheed Martin are among several large corporates supporting joint research initiative between India and the US in high-tech areas. For instance, Boeing has provided over Rs 3 crore to the Indian Institute of Technology – Kanpur to work on applications of radio frequency identification devices technology. While Lockheed Martin has joined hands with the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and the Department of Science and Technology to launch an initiative to promote entrepreneurs.  

UK-based Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), a leading organization of its kind in the world for professionals in property, land, construction and related environmental issues has announced its entry into India and setting up of an institute for the real estate sector in the country.  

The institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) will help the 155-year old Indian Railways upgrade its accounting practices.  

Information Technology  

HCL Technologies, the country’s fifth largest IT software and services provider has completed its Rs 3,100 crore cash offer for the UK based SAP consulting company Axon Group plc-India’s largest overseas acquisition in the IT space. Axon will exist as a separate entity called HCL Axon. From 2009, the entire revenue will start getting reflected. Around 1,700 people from Axon’s current SAP practice, including sales and delivery, will join HCL through the reverse merging of HCL’s SAP practice with Axon.  

Wipro Infotech, the business division of Wipro, has opened a new application support center in Hyderabad . Modelled on the lines of Wipro’s global service management centre (GSMC) in Mysore , the new center at Hyderabad will be offering an application management services, FAST-R (Flexible Application SupporT-Remedy) to the company’s customers in India .  

3i Infotech, a global information technology company has announced the launch of I-SERV, a brand for its retail services. Under the new brand, a comprehensive range of value added services will be provided to consumers, specifically to those in the remote rural areas, thereby, empowering them to carry out various day-to-day activities and improving quality of life. 3i will deploy technical infrastructure and manpower support to deliver these services related to banking, insurance, mobile, education, ticketing and other utilities. The company will be offering these services through 12,500 stores in Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharasthra, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Delhi .  

UK-based services firm Secro Group has acquired a 60% stake in India ’s largest local BPO firm InfoVision for about Rs 97.7 crore. It has also agreed to buy the remaining 40% in two tranches over the next two years at a price depending on InfoVision’s financial performance.  

Telecom  

The Cellular Operator’s Association of India (COAI), the GSM operators’ body, has opposed the telecom regulator’s recommendation for levying an additional 2 per cent charge on 3G spectrum saying it is a “retrograde step”.  The COAI clarified that this would only add to the financial burden of the service providers.  

Expressing concern over declining trend in is quarterly revenues, the government has asked the state-run BSNL to take steps to check the fall in revenues.  

The government has capped the number of private players which can bid for 3G services in Mumbai and Delhi . Releasing the information memorandum, a document for the prospective bidders, the Department of Telecom (DoT) announced that only three players (including MTNL) can bid for 3G spectrum in Delhi while four (including MTNL) can do so in Mumbai.    

Macroeconomic Indicators

Table 1 : Index Numbers of Industrial Production (1993-94 =100)

Table 2 : Production in Infrastructure Industries (Physical Output Series)

Table 3: Procurment, Offtake and Stock of foodgrains

Table 4: Index Numbers of  Wholesale Prices (1993-94 = 100)

Table 5 : Cost of Living Indices

Table 6 : Budgetary Position of Government of India

Table 7 : Government Borrowing Programmes and Performance

Table 8 : Scheduled Commercial Banks - Business in India  

Table 9 : Money Stock : components and Sources

Table 10 : Reserve Money : Components and Sources

Table 11 : Average Daily Turnover in Call Money Market

Table 12 : Assistance Sanctioned and Disbursed by All-India Financial Institutions

Table 13 : Capital Market

Table 14 : Foreign Trade

Table 15 : India's Overall Balance of Payments

Table 16 : Foreign Investment Inflows  
Table 17 : Foreign Collaboration Approvals (Route-Wise)
Table 18 : Year-Wise (Route-Wise) Actual Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI/NRI)

Table 19 : NRI Deposits - Outstandings

Table 20 : Foreign Exchange Reserves

Table 21 : Indices REER and NEER of the Indian Rupee

Table 22 : Turnover in Foreign Exchange Market  
Table 23 : India's Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity [As reported under the IMFs special data dissemination standards (SDDS)
Table 24 : Settlement Volume and Netting Factor for Government Securities Transactions Settled at CCIL - Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Basis.
Table 25 : Inter-Catasegory Distribution of All Types of Trade in Government Securities Settled at CCIL (With Market Share in Respective Trade Types) 
Table 26 : Settlement Volume and Netting Factor for Total Forex Transactions Settled at CCIL - Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Basis.
Table 27 : Inter-Category Distribution of Total Foreign Exchange Transactions Settled at CCIL (With Market Share in Respective Trade Types) 

 

Memorandum Items

CSO's Quarterly Estimates of GDP  

GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity

India's Overall Balance of Payments: Quarterly

India's Overall Balance of Payments: Annual  

*These statistics and the accompanying review are a product arising from the work undertaken under the joint ICICI research centre.org-EPWRF Data Base Project.

LIST OF WEEKLY THEMES


 

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