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Current Economic Statistics and Review For the Week 
Ended
January 31, 2009 (5th Weekly Report of 2009)

 Theme of the week:

Economic Census – 12

 

Non-Agricultural Enterprises By Economic Activities – Community, Social and Personal Services*

1. Introduction

            “Community, social and personal services” has been the third important economic activity among non-agricultural enterprises with about 15 per cent of the number of non-agricultural enterprises engaged in it as per different Economic Censuses. Six types of activities, namely, government services, public administration, defense, education, health, social and other personal activities are grouped under this category.

This note, the twelfth in the series of notes dealing in different aspects of data collected through Economic Censuses, mainly deals with information grouped under ‘community, social and personal services’ (CS & PS).

2. Limitations

1.      The Central Statistical Organisation has followed different National Industrial Classification (NIC) systems for grouping economic activities collected under different Economic Censuses over years. Thus, there can be some differences in the classification method used for grouping different economic activities of enterprises. However, these differences do not make any difference at the major group level.

2.       Each Economic Census has to be conducted in all states and UTs, but due to some unavoidable circumstances, EC 1980 did not cover Assam , and as EC 1990 was synchronized with the house-listing operation of decennial Population Census 1991which was not done in Jammu and Kashmir , the Economic Census 1990 also did not cover Jammu and Kashmir .

3. Community, Social and Personal Services: Definition and Coverage

All the information gathered under different economic activities identified as belonging to any of the six types cited above have been grouped under the said group ‘community, social and personal services’ (CP & PS). A broad list of such activities is presented in Table 1.

Table 1: Activities Included in the Group ‘Community, Social & Personal Services’

1. Public Administration and Defence; Compulsory Social Security

a.

Public services in the union government including defence services

b.

Public services in state governments including police services

c.

Public services in the local bodies, departments and offices engaged in administration like local taxation and business regulation etc.

d.

Public services in quasi-governments bodies/foreign affairs/defence activities

e.

Public order and safety activities such as police and fire protections, administration and operation of law courts and prison administration and operation

f.

Compulsory social security activities viz., old age pension, unemployment insurance etc. of Union and state governments

2. Sanitary Services

a.

Sanitation and similar services such as garbage & sewage disposal, operation of drainage systems & all other work connected with public health and sanitation

3. Education

a.

Educational services rendered by technical or vocational colleges, schools, etc.

b.

Educational services rendered by non-technical colleges, schools, universities etc.

c.

Research and scientific services n.e.c such as those rendered by institutions and laboratories engaged in research in the biological, physical and social sciences, meteorological institutes and medical research organisations etc.

 

4. Health and Medical Services

a

Health and medical services rendered by organisations and individuals such as hospitals, dispensaries, sanatoria, nursing homes, maternal and child welfare clinics, by allopathic, ayurvedic, unani, homeopathic, etc., practitioners

 

b

Veterinary services

5. Community Services

a

Religious services rendered by organisations or individuals

b

Welfare services rendered by organisations operating on a non-profit basis for the promotion of welfare of the community such as relief societies, crèches, homes for the aged and physically handicapped etc.

 

c

Services rendered by business, professional and labour organisations n.e.c.

d

Services rendered by co-operative societies n.e.c.

e

Community services n.e.c.

6. Recreational and Cultural Services

a

Motion picture and video films production

b

Motion picture distribution and projection services and video films production

c

Stage production and related services

d

Authors, music composers, singers dancers, magicians and other independent artistes

e

Operation of circuses and race tracks

f

Libraries, museums, botanical and zoological gardens, zoos, game sanctuaries etc.

g

Audio and video cassette libraries

h

Video parlours, electronic games and other amusement centres n.e.c.

i

Gymnasia and Other recreational services n.e.c.

7. Personal Services

a

Domestic services, Laundry Services and dyeing services

b.

Hair dressing and beauty saloons /photographic studios, Tailoring establishments etc

4.Growth of Enterprises Engaged in ‘Community, Social and Personal Services’

Table 2: Trend in Number of Enterprises Engaged in Community, Social & Personal Services

 

Rural

Urban

Combined

Numbers in ' 000

 

 

1980

2040

958

2998

1990

3514

2267

5781

1998

3824

2629

6453

2005

3509

1913

5422

Distribution of Enterprises in Rural & Urban areas (%)

1980

68.0

32.0

100.0

1990

60.8

39.2

100.0

1998

59.3

40.7

100.0

2005

64.7

35.3

100.0

Share in All Non-Agricultural Activities (%)

1980

20.7

13.6

17.7

1990

27.8

22.6

25.5

1998

26.4

21.3

24.0

2005

17.7

12.0

15.2

Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR %)

1980-2005

2.2

2.8

2.4

1980-1990

5.6

9.0

6.8

1990-1998

1.1

1.9

1.4

1998-2005

-1.2

-4.4

-2.5

Source: CSO(2008), Economic Census 2005 and Previous Issues

The number of enterprises engaged in ‘community, social and personal services’ was 3.0 million in 1980. In the next 18-years, there was an addition of 3.5 million enterprises to reach 6.5 million in 1998, but it recorded a decline of 1.0 million enterprises in the next 7-years to dip to 5.4 million by 2005. At this level, the annual growth (CAGR) between 1980-2005 works out to be 2.4%. What is important is that while the enterprises engaged in all other economic activity groups registered smart pick up in their number between 1998 and 2005, in the case of ‘community, social and personal services’ there was a drastic reduction in the number of enterprises engaged in such activities during the7-year period. Actually, there was a negative annual growth rate of 2.5 % between EC-1998 and EC-2005 and even between EC-1990 and EC-1998 the growth rate was a measly 1.4%. This has happened after the smart pick up of growth witnessed between 1980 and 1990. Such long-term trend has been seen both among rural and urban enterprises engaged in community, social, and personal services.  The share of enterprises engaged in ‘community, social and personal services’ in all non-agricultural enterprises though picked up in the intervening censuses, overall it has fallen from 17.7% in 1980 to 15.2% in 2005.

 

 

 

5.  Distribution of Own-Account Enterprises and Establishments with at least one Hired Worker Engaged in ‘Community, Social and Personal Services’

Among all enterprises engaged in ‘community, social and personal services’, the share of own-account enterprises has witnessed a long-term decline over different economic censuses. Thus their share has come down from about 45.4% in 1980 to 38.9% in 2005. The trend among rural and urban own-account enterprises engaged in ‘community, social and personal services’ has been the same.

Table 3: Share of Own Account Community, Social & Personal Services (OAE) and Community, Social & Personal Services Establishments with at least One Hired Worker (Estt.)

Rural

Urban

Rural + Urban

OAE

Estt.

OAE

Estt.

OAE

Estt.

1980

44.1

55.9

48.1

51.9

45.4

54.6

1990

54.1

45.9

53.2

46.8

53.8

46.2

1998

53.6

46.4

55.2

44.8

54.3

45.7

2005

37.1

62.9

42.2

57.8

38.9

61.1

Source: CSO (2008), Economic Census 2005 and previous issues 

As against the above, establishments with at least one hired worker, which were engaged in ‘community, social and personal services’ have risen from 54.6% in 1980 to 61.1% in 2005; such establishments in rural and urban areas have shown the same kind of trend.

 

6. Trends in Own-Account Enterprises Engaged in ‘Community, Social and Personal Services’

Table 4: Trend in Own-Account Enterprises Engaged in ‘Community, Social and Personal Services’

 

Rural

Urban

Combined

Numbers in ' 000

 

 

1980

898

461

1360

1990

1902

1206

3108

1998

2050

1451

3501

2005

1301

808

2110

Distribution of Enterprises in Rural & Urban areas (%)

1980

66.0

33.9

100.0

1990

61.2

38.8

100.0

1998

58.6

41.4

100.0

2005

61.7

38.3

100.0

Share in All Non-Agricultural Activities (%)

1980

9.1

6.5

8.0

1990

15.1

12.0

13.7

1998

14.1

11.7

13.0

2005

6.6

5.1

5.9

Share in All Own Account Non-Agricultural Activities (%)

1980

11.9

10.0

11.2

1990

20.1

19.5

19.9

1998

19.1

19.2

19.2

2005

9.8

9.5

9.7

Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR %)

1980-2005

1.5

2.3

1.8

1980-1990

7.8

10.1

8.6

1990-1998

0.9

2.3

1.5

1998-2005

-6.3

-8.0

-7.0

Source: CSO (2008), Economic Census 2005 and Previous Issues

 

            As hinted at earlier the growth of own-account enterprises in CP&PS category has been meager. An addition of only 0.7 million own-account enterprises engaged in CP&PS has been witnessed during the entire 25-year period to reach 2.1 million in 2005. While own-account manufacturing enterprises in rural areas had risen by 0.4 million, that in urban areas had increased by 0.3 million during the 25-year period. There is a contrary trend in the share of own-account enterprises engaged in CS&PS conducting their business from rural and urban areas in that their share has moved in favour of urban areas. The annual growth rate (CAGR) had been low at 1.4% during the 25-year period, with the period 1998 and 2005 witnessing a negative growth rate both among rural and urban own-account enterprises engaged in CS&PS. The Share of own-account enterprises engaged in CS&PS in all own-account non-agricultural enterprises has witnessed a long-term decline though there has been a minor pick up between 1980 and 1990.

 

 

 

 

7. Trend in Establishment with Hired Workers Engaged in ‘Community, Social and Personal Services’

 

Table 5: Trend in Establishments With Hired Workers Engaged in Community, Social and Personal Services

 

Rural

Urban

Combined

Numbers in ' 000

 

 

1980

1141

497

1638

1990

1611

1061

2673

1998

1774

1178

2952

2005

2207

1105

3312

Distribution of Enterprises in Rural & Urban areas (%)

1980

69.7

30.3

100.0

1990

60.3

39.7

100.0

1998

60.1

39.9

100.0

2005

66.6

33.4

100.0

Share in All Non-Agricultural Activities (%)

1980

11.6

7.1

9.7

1990

12.8

10.6

11.8

1998

12.2

9.5

11.0

2005

11.1

6.9

9.3

Share in All Establishments with Hired Workers (%)

1980

49.5

20.3

34.4

1990

51.1

27.4

38.1

1998

46.8

24.5

34.3

2005

33.6

15.0

23.8

Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR %)

1980-2005

2.7

3.2

2.9

1980-1990

3.5

7.9

5.0

1990-1998

1.2

1.3

1.2

1998-2005

3.2

-0.9

1.7

Source: CSO(2008), Economic Census 2005 and Previous Issues

On the contrary, establishments with hired workers engaged in CS&PS have registered a continuing increase over different economic censuses. As a result, their number has risen from 1.6 million in 1980 to 3.3 million in 2005,  thus adding 1.7 million establishments during the 25-year period. While in rural areas, 1.1 million CS&PS establishments were added, in urban areas only 0.6 million establishments have been added during the 25-year period. However, the share of rural CS&PS establishments declined from 69.7% in 1980 to 66.6.0% in 2005 and that of urban areas correspondingly increased from 30.3 % in 1980 to 33.4% in 2005. The negative growth rate (CAGR) of 0.9% between 1998 and 2005 among urban CS&PS establishments brought down the overall growth rate to 1.7% during the period, even though there has been an annual growth of 3.2% among rural establishments. The share of CS&PS establishments in total non-agriculture enterprises after witnessing an increase from 9.7 % in 1980 to 11.8% in 1990, has steadily declined to 9.3% by 2005. The same trend had been witnessed when one considers the share of establishments with hired workers engaged in CS&PS in  all non-agricultural establishments with hired workers.

 

 

 

 

 

8. Directory and Non-Directory Establishments

Among 3.3 million establishments engaged in ‘community, social and personal services’ in 2005, there were 2.7 million (80.5%) non-directory establishments and 0.6 million-directory establishments. As is known while non-directory establishments refer to establishments having hired workers employing less than 6 persons daily on a fairly regular basis, and directory establishments constitute the balance establishments with hired workers employing six or more persons on a similar basis.

Table 6: Distribution of Directory and Non-Directory Establishments - Community, Social and Personal Services

(number in ' 00) 

 

Major Activity Groups

 

Economic Census

Rural

Urban

Rural+Urban

Non-

Directory

 

Directory

 

Estt.with Hired Workers

Non-

Directory

 

Directory

 

Estt.with Hired Workers

Non-

Directory

 

Directory

 

Estt.with Hired Workers

All  Non-Agrl.

Activities

1998

31877

6047

37925

38049

10040

48089

69926

16087

86014

2005

58003

7646

65649

62654

11089

73744

120657

18735

139393

Community, Social and Personal Services

 

 

 

1998

15076

2663

17740

8777

2998

11775

23853

5661

29515

 

(47.3)

(44.0)

(46.8)

(23.1)

(29.9)

(24.5)

(34.1)

(35.2)

(34.3)

2005

18725

3349

22074

7942

3106

11048

26666

6455

33122

 

(32.3)

(43.8)

(33.6)

(12.7)

(28.0)

(15.0)

(22.1)

(34.5)

(23.8)

CAGR 1998-05

3.1

3.3

3.2

-1.4

0.5

-0.9

1.6

1.9

1.7

Note: CAGR: Compounded annual growth rate in per cent  

          Figures in brackets are percentages to all non-agricultural activities 

Source: CSO (2008, Economic Census 2005 and previous issues 

   

          Though the number of both directory and non-directory establishments has registered increases over the seven-year period, their share in respective total non-agricultural enterprises registered declines over the years may be due to the comparative slower increase in the number of CS&PS establishments viz-a-viz non-agricultural enterprises. The fall in case of non-directory establishments engaged in CS&PS  in urban areas were steep i.e. from 23.1% in 1998 to 12.7% in 2005 and the annual growth rate (CAGR) among urban non-directory establishments engaged in these services were negative at 1.4%. However, the annual growth rate among rural non-directory establishments was appreciable at 3.1%. 

9. Selected Characteristics of Own-Account Enterprises Engaged in Community, Social and Personal Services

            As per EC-2005, out of 0.93 million seasonal non-agricultural enterprises in 2005, 62,000 enterprises forming about 6.7% were engaged in ‘community, social and personal services’ (CS&PS).  However, such seasonal enterprises had declined to 62,000 enterprises by 2005, after increasing to 1,25,000 enterprises in 1998 from 90,000 enterprises in 1990.

This rend has been seen even in perennial own account enterprises engaged in CS&PS, which fell from 3.0 million enterprises in 1990 to 2.0 million enterprises in 2005.

Table 7: Selected Characteristics of Own Account Enterprises : Community, Social and Personal Services

 

1990

1998

2005

Total Own Account Non-Agricultural Enterprises (‘ 000)

Total

15653

18273

21809

Seasonal

839

1060

925

Perennial

14814

17213

20883

Without Premises

3230

3982

4818

Without Power

12974

14749

16931

Own Account Enterprises Engaged in Community, Social and Personal Services (‘ 000)

Total

3108

3501

2110

Seasonal

90

125

62

Perennial

3018

3376

2048

Without Premises

494

583

367

Without Power

2708

2856

1682

Share in Total Own Account Non-Agricultural Enterprises (per cent)

Total

19.9

19.2

9.7

Seasonal

10.7

11.8

6.7

Perennial

20.4

19.6

9.8

Without Premises

15.3

14.6

7.6

Without Power

20.9

19.4

9.9

Share of Each Characteristics in Community, Social, and Personal Services (per cent)

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

Seasonal

2.9

3.6

2.9

Perennial

97.1

96.4

97.1

Without Premises

15.9

16.7

17.4

Without Power

87.1

81.6

79.7

Source: CSO (2008), Economic Census 2005 and previous issues

 

There were 4.8 million non-agricultural own-account enterprises which were operating without premises in 2005, out of which 0.37 million own account enterprises were engaged in CS&PS and they form about 7.6 per cent of the total own-account non-agricultural enterprises.      As many as 1.7 million own-account enterprises engaged in these services has been operating without using power or fuel in 2005, a decline of 1.0 million own-account enterprises occupied with such services.

10. Selected Characteristics of Establishments with Hired Workers Engaged in ‘Community, Social and Personal Services’

            According to EC-2005, out of 483,000 seasonal non-agricultural establishments, seasonal establishments with hired workers engaged in community, social and personal services at 33,000 forms 6.8%.  The number of seasonal establishments with hired workers engaged in community, social and personal services has increased from 42,000 in 1980 to 63,000 in 1998 and then slipped to 33,000 by 2005.

Table 8 : Selected Characteristics of Establishment with Hired Workers Engaged in Community, Social and Personal Services

 

1990

1998

2005

Non-Agricultural Establishment with Hired Workers ( ' 000)

Total

7018

8601

13939

Seasonal

283

371

483

Perennial

6735

8230

13456

Without Premises

339

751

1389

Without Power

5170

6191

9275

Trading Establishment with Hired Workers ( ' 000)

Total

2673

2952

3312

Seasonal

42

63

33

Perennial

2631

2889

3279

Without Premises

56

159

156

Without Power

2414

2552

2511

Share in Total Non-Agricultural Establishment with Hired Workers (per cent)

Total

38.1

34.3

23.8

Seasonal

14.8

17.0

6.8

Perennial

39.1

35.1

24.4

Without Premises

16.5

21.2

11.2

Without Power

46.7

41.2

27.1

Share of Each Chracterstics in CS & PS Establishment with Hired Workers (per cent)

Total

100.0

100.0

100.0

Seasonal

1.6

2.1

1.0

Perennial

98.4

97.9

99.0

Without Premises

2.1

5.4

4.7

Without Power

90.3

86.4

75.8

Source: CSO (2008), Economic Census 2005 and previous issues

As against this number of establishments with hired workers busy with community, social and personal services operating throughout the year has witnessed an addition of 0.7 million establishments during the period. However, their share in total establishments with hired workers engaged in these services has witnessed a long-term downtrend (Table 8).

The proportion of CS&PS establishments with hired workers operating without premises to total non-agricultural establishments with hired workers registered a long-term down trend. Not much change has occurred in the number of establishments with hired workers engaged in CS&PS carrying out their activities without using power/fuel over the years.

 

11. Own-Account ‘Community, Social and Personal Services Enterprises’: Ownership By Social Groups

Table 9: Social Group Ownership - Own Account Community, Social and Personal Services Enterprises

 

1990

1998

2005

 

Number

Share(%)

Number

Share(%)

Number

Share(%)

 

(' 000)

 

(' 000)

 

(' 000)

 

Total

3108

100.0

3501

100.0

2110

100.0

 

(19.9)

 

(19.2)

 

(9.7)

 

ST

56

2.1

95

2.7

41

1.9

 

(12.4)

 

(12.4)

 

(4.9)

 

SC

360

11.6

329

9.4

183

8.7

 

(20.6)

 

(19.0)

 

(7.9)

 

OBC

 

 

1248

35.6

809

38.3

 

 

 

(18.6)

 

(9.0)

 

Note: Figures in brackets are percentages to respective total non-agricultural own-account enterprises

Source: CSO(2008), Economic Census 2005 and previous issues

 

Consistent with the overall decline of own-account CS&PS enterprises over the years, such enterprises owned by lower social classes also witnessed a decline. Thus ST-owned ‘community, social and personal service’ own-account enterprises has declined from 56,000 in 1980 to 41,000 in 2005 after increasing to 95,000 in 1998. SC-owned own-account CS&PS enterprises have almost dwindled to half between 1990 and 2005; while these came down in absolute number came down to 1,83,000 in 2005 from 3,60,000 in 1990, the  number of own-account enterprises occupied in CS&PS category owned by OBC has also declined by 4.39 lakh enterprises between 1998 and 2005, but their share in all own-account enterprises engaged in CS&PS registered an increase from 35.6% in 1998 to 38.3% in 2005 in spite of a fall in their share in all non-agricultural own-account enterprises (Table 9).

12. Establishments with Hired Workers Engaged in ‘Community, Social and Personal Services: Ownership by Social Group

Table 10: Social Group Ownership – Establishment with Hired Workers - Community, Social and Personal Services Enterprises

 

1990

1998

2005

 

Number

Share(%)

Number

Share(%)

Number

Share(%)

 

(' 000)

 

(' 000)

 

(' 000)

 

Total

2673

100.0

2952

100.0

3312

100.0

 

(38.1)

 

(34.3)

 

(23.8)

 

ST

19

0.7

31

1.1

34

1.0

 

(27.9)

 

(19.9)

 

(11.2)

 

SC

56

2.1

75

2.5

88

2.7

 

(28.3)

 

(24.2)

 

(11.5)

 

OBC

 

 

391

13.2

433

13.1

 

 

 

(19.4)

 

(10.4)

 

Note: Figures in brackets are percentages to respective  total non-agricultural Establishment with Hired Workers

Source: CSO(2008), Economic Census 2005 and previous issues

 

There have been 34,000 ‘community, social and personal service’ establishments with hired workers owned by STs in 2005 forming about 1.0% of total CS&PS establishments with hired workers and 11.2% of total non-agricultural  ST-owned establishment. Such establishments rose from 19,000 in 1990 to 34,000 in 2005 i.e., an addition of 15,000 during the 15-year period.  

            The number of SC-owned ‘community, social and personal service’ establishments with hired workers has gone up from 56,000 in 1990 to 88,000 by 2005

            OBC-owned ‘community, social and personal service’ establishments with hired workers has increased from 3.9 lakh in 1998 to 4.3 lakh in 2005. However, the share of such establishments owned by OBCs in total OBC-owned non-agricultural establishments with hired workers fell from 19.4% in 1998 to 10.4% in 2005.Still their share in total establishment with hired workers engaged in ‘community, social and personal services’ were stable at about 13% both in 1998 and 2005.

12. Institutional Ownership of Enterprises in ‘ Community, Social and Personal Services

All enterprises are divided into own-account enterprises and establishment with hired workers. Own-account enterprises are usually household owned and are therefore privately owned. Private sector enterprises include not only family-owned enterprises but also establishments owned by private non-profit institutions, private unincorporated proprietorships, private unincorporated partnerships and private others. Public sector includes government and public sector units. The discussion in this sub-section is confined only to establishments with hired workers, as all own-account enterprises are privately owned by definition.

 

Table 11: Ownership of Establishment with Hired Workers Engaged in Community, Social and Personal Services 

 

Private* ( ' 000)

Share (%)

Public (' 000)

Share (%)

Total '( 000)

Share (%)

1990

1305

24.4

1368

81.2

2673

38.1

 

(48.8)

 

(51.2)

 

(100.0)

 

1998

1626

23.2

1326

83.0

2952

34.3

 

(55.1)

 

(44.9)

 

(100.0)

 

2005

1600

13.6

1712

78.2

3312

23.8

 

(48.4)

 

(51.6)

 

(100.0)

 

 ' * ' Private sector includes co-operatives also

 

Note: Share (%) is the percentage share in total non-agricultural enterprises in respective sectors

Source: CSO (2008), Economic Census 2005 and previous issues

                                                                                                                                   

Out of the total 3.3 million establishments with hired workers engaged in community, social and personal services in 2005, about 48.4 % establishment were privately owned and the remaining 51.6% were in the public sector. It can be seen from the Table 11 that while the number of establishments with hired workers engaged in ‘community, social and personal services’ in the public sector has increased from 1.4 million in 1998 to 1.7 million in 2005, those in private sector have actually shrunk by 26,000 establishments from 1.63 million to 1.60 million. 

 * This note has been prepared by R.Krishnaswamy

 

Highlights of  Current Economic Scene

Growth Scenario

The Reserve Bank of India has lowered the growth forecast to 7% with a “downward bias” and predicted a fall in exports and corporate profitability. The slowdown is brought about by lower industrial production caused by the global crisis.

Commerce and Industry minister, Kamal Nath said that domestic demand would drive Indian economy despite global slowdown, however Indian economy is not entirely based on exports market. Of course we cannot decouple are self from global downturn but can continue to keep are domestic demand. He commented that Central government has announced $4 billion for infrastructure projects; even the stimulus packages announced by the government are sufficient to stop the impact of the meltdown. Lastly, he even said that government expenditure will surely increase; leaving a wide fiscal gap, but according to him the gap is manageable.

The economic think-tank National Council of Applied Economic and Research (NCAER) estimated the countries GDP growth rate for the current fiscal year to 6.7%which is lower than 7.6% estimated earlier. The overall GDP growth is projected to decline by 0.9% points in 2008-09 as compared to the projections made in October 2008. The reason for the downward revision is due to the fall in the pace of private expenditure on investment and consumption, but some improvement in the next fiscal (2009-10) is expected to be marginally better at 6.9%.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised a growth forecast for the Indian economy to 5.1% in 2009, again which is lower than its earlier prediction of 6.3%.

Prime ministers panel has also scaled down its projections for economic growth to 7.1% from its earlier estimation of 7.7%.

Agriculture

The minimum support prices (MSP) for the standing 2008-09 wheat crop — to be marketed from April onwards — has been increased by 8% to Rs 1,080 per quintal. The new price is likely to aggravate the problem of overflowing public grain inventories, which has touched 180.62 lakh tonnes as on January 1, as against the normative minimum buffer of 82 lakh tonnes for this date. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has also hiked the MSPs for rapeseed-mustard, gram, barley and masur (lentil), while leaving the same unchanged for safflower. The new MSPs are in line with the recommendations of the Commission for Agricultural Costs & Prices (CACP).

The government has extended the repayment date under the farm loan waiver scheme by six months to March 2009 instead of September 2008. As part of the Rs 60,000-crore relief package for farmers announced in the budget 2008-09, farmers who owned 5 acres and more were required to settle 75 per cent of their dues, with the government waiving the remaining 25 per cent or Rs 20,000, whichever was higher. The loans (first instalment) were required to be repaid by September 2008. However, under the revised plan, farmers will now have to pay the first instalment of their loan in March 2009. The decision was taken considering that the initial deadline clashed with the new crop cycle. The move is expected to help banks make less provisioning on as much as Rs 32,000 crore (Rs 320 billion) of outstanding debt to nearly 6,000,000 farmers who own more than 5 acres of land. Analysts have apprehensions that the extension may fuel speculation of an additional loan waiver ahead of the general elections and the possibility of default, too, may rise.

The government of Kerala has plans to introduce a pension scheme for farmers above the age of 60 years. The pension plan, namely ‘Kisan Abhiman Scheme’, that envisages a monthly pension of Rs 300 to farmers who have taken up agriculture as the only means of livelihood for a period of at least 10 years and are not benefited by any other welfare scheme. 10,000 farmers are likely to get pension under this scheme in the first year. They would also be eligible for getting Rs 25,000 for conducting the marriage of their daughters.

The government of West Bengal has plans to substitute20 % of chemical fertiliser by bio-fertiliser by the end of the 11th Five Year Plan. The state government has written a letter to the Centre urging for subsidy for the use of bio-fertiliser. Chemical fertilisers get a subsidy of about 80%.

Natural rubber production has fallen by 14% to 96,200 tonnes in December 2008 from 111,730 tonnes in December 2007 due to decline in the prices following industrial recession partially offsetting major increase in output in the first eight months of this financial year and also because of dry weather conditions affecting the production adversely. The production between April and December period, however, touched 669,080 tonnes, 8% higher than 620,060 tonnes in the same period the previous year. Further, the demand for natural rubber has decreased due to economic slowdown along with a 30% rise in the import of cheaper Chinese tyres. Domestic tyre manufacturers have cut down on production on recession fears. Consumption, too, has declined to stand at 66,000 tonnes from 73,110 tonnes in December 2007. Meanwhile, the Rubber Board has revised its natural rubber production and consumption targets for the April -March 2008-09 from 8.75 lakh tonnes to 8.61 lakh tonnes and from 8.99 lakh tonnes to 8.62 lakh tonnes, respectively owing to slowdown in demand in the ongoing economic downturn.

Global cotton consumption is likely to fall by 11% in the current cotton season ending August 2009 due to rising production costs of the textile mills, strengthening of local currencies against the dollar and low enquiries from the recession-hit countries. Cotlook has projected a substantial drop in cotton yarn offtake in several key Asian markets. India ’s consumption for the season is pegged at 6.8 million tonnes against the previous season’s 7.2 million tonnes, while the production is likely to drop to 4.93 million tonnes from 5.3 million tonnes during the corresponding period of previous year. Meanwhile, data available with the International Cotton Advisory Committee has revealed that global cotton exports are expected to fall by 6.47% to 7.8 million tonnes in 2008-09 due to slowing demand from textile importing countries. The apex cotton body has also reiterated that world cotton exports would decline by 6.47% in 2008-09 owing to declining mill use. Mill use is likely to fall by 4% to 10.5 million tonnes in Mainland China , the world’s largest consumer.

Continued diversion to gur producing units and better price realisation have enabled the sugar millers in Uttar Pradesh, the second biggest sugar producing state in the country, to make prompt payment to the sugarcane growers in the current season (October-December). According to the state cane commissioner, the state sugar mills, as on 23 January, have cleared nearly 98% (Rs 3,210 crore) of the total cane price payable (Rs 3,277 crore). During the last two season (2006-07 and 2007-08), mills in the state had piled up arrears to the tune of a few thousand crore, and the state government had to resort to coercive measures against the mills to ensure timely payments. Owing to staggered payment by the mills, sugarcane acreage in the state declined by over 20 per cent in sugarcane year 2008, as farmers shifted to better paying crops like paddy and oilseeds.