Current Economic Statistics and Review For the
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Private Corporate Sector: Performance During the First Half of 2008-09 *
Reflecting the general slowdown in the macro economy, rising inflation and monetary tightening, the performance of the corporate sector during the first half of 2008-09 has depicted moderation in overall activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. The present note attempts to review the RBI’s study “Performance of Private Corporate Business Sector during the First Half of 2008-09”, which analyses the performance of 2,072 non-government financial and non-financial public limited companies during the period, i.e., April to September 2008. The
study reveals that the private
corporate business sector in This is getting reflected in the economy’s overall performance. According to the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), GDP at 1999-2000 prices increased by 7.8%, in the first half of the 2008-09 or by 7.1% during the whole of the year as against the growth of 9.8% registered in 2007-08. More significantly, the growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has slowed down from 9.9% during April-October 2007 to 4.1% during the comparable period of 2008-09. The manufacturing sector, which carries a weight of 79.4% in the IIP, has recorded a growth of 4.2% during April-October 2008, compared with 10.6% growth registered during April-October 2007. Overall
Performance As indicated in Table 1, the aggregate sales of 2,072 companies have increased by 32.4 per cent to Rs 6,62,444 crore during the first half of 2008-09, that is considerably higher by around 15 percentage points as compared with 17.5% in H1: 2007-08. In fact, the rising prices rather than increasing volumes have accounted for the sales increases. The other income has declined substantially by 9% to Rs 12,736 crore in H1:2008-09 from Rs 14,001 crore in H1:2007-08 conceivably attributable to lower returns on investments in the stock market. On account of considerable rise in expenditure following higher input costs of raw materials, power and fuel in the case of manufacturing companies and increased spending on salaries of the employees by IT and services sector companies, the total expenditure of the selected companies has increased to Rs 5,78,175 crore (by 37.4%) during H1:2008-09, substantially higher by 20.8 percentage points when compared to 16.6% rise in the corresponding period of 2007-08. The aggregate depreciation of the 2,072 companies stood at Rs 20,928 crore in H1:2008-09 as against Rs 18,029 crore in H1:2007-08, registering a rise of 16.1%.
More importantly, interest outgo in the review period has augmented by 72.2% to Rs 17,344 crore in H1:2008-09 substantially higher by around 60 percentage points from 11.7% (Rs 10,075 crore) in H1:2007-08 owing to increasing interest burden on companies as a spin-off of the central bank’s inflation fighting measures. The interest burden (interest payments to gross profits) increased significantly by 6.6 percentage points to 18.8% from 12.2% in H1:2007-08 on account of burgeoning interest burden on companies. While the net profit margin (profit after tax to sales) contracted by 2.4 percentage points to 9.2% in H1:2008-09 from 11.6% in H1:2007-08 (Chart A). The profits before tax (PBT) has deteriorated substantially by 27.8 percentage points to Rs 74,884 crore in H1:2008-09 from Rs 72,834 crore in H1:2007-08. As a result of the reduced net profit, the aggregate tax provisioning contracted by 0.1% to Rs 15,572 crore as against Rs 15,582 crore in H1:2007-08. Even though the sales have grown at a higher rate, partly reflecting higher prices, the net profit growth has decelerated significantly due to the firming up of input and interest costs. The growth in net profits have declined considerably by 25.2 percentage points to 4.2% (Rs 60,701 crore) from that of 29.4% in the corresponding period of 2007-08.
Performance
over the Quarters of 2008-09
Over the quarters, the sales growth at 29.3%, observed in the first quarter, was marginally lower than the growth rate at 31.8% each in the second quarter of 2008-09. Expenditure and interest payments increased by 37.5% and 85.3%, respectively, in the second quarter as against the respective 33.5% and 58.1% increases in the first quarter. Post-tax profits, which witnessed 6.9% rise in Q1, showed decline by 2.6% in Q2:2008-09. Sector-wise
Performance
The key indicators of performance across major sectors have exhibited considerable variations in their growth during H1:2008-09. The sales performance of companies in the manufacturing sector has been slightly better than that of the services and IT sectors. The manufacturing sector has posted 33% increase in sales vis-à-vis 31.2% rise posted by the services sector (other than IT) followed by IT sector at 28.9%. Interestingly, the performance of IT sector companies has been impressive even in terms of growth in aggregate net profits at 11.9% followed by services sector at 6.3% during H1:2008-09. In contrast, manufacturing companies reported lower growth in profit after tax at 2.2% on account of mounting interest burden and higher input costs of raw materials. For this sector, costs of raw materials, accounting for about 68% of the total expenses, were up by 42.8%; while the interest cost has shot up by 59.3% in relation to the increase in total expenditure at 38.8%.
Industry-wise
Performance
For H1:2008-09, the key performance indicators across industries have shown considerable variations in their growth rates and ratios. The overall industry-wise performance reveals that sectors like mining and quarrying, chemicals, fertilizers and pesticides, electricity generation and supply, iron & steel, construction, transport and storage & communications have continued sustained growth, whereas textiles, pharmaceuticals and medicines, motar vehicles, other transport equipments, jewellary and related articles and machinery & machine tools have reported subdued performance. More importantly, of the 30 industries analysed, 27 industries have recorded more than 20% growth in their interest payments and around 24 industries have recorded very high sales growth of more than 20%. While only two industries have recorded an impressive growth of more than 50% in net profits while depreciation provision has increased by more than 20% for ten industries. Construction industry has reported sales growth of 39.6% during H1:2008-09, consequently real-estate companies have posted growth of 19.4% in net profits. The cement industry registered 20.8% increase in turnover while the net profit margin for the cement industry declined by 6.3 percentage points in H1:2008-09 to 13.7%, because of higher growth in expenditure (29.1%) and an increase of 35.5% in interest payments during the review period. Iron and steel companies have posted 21.9% growth in post-tax profits in H1:2008-09 at the back of 43.6% increase in sales. These companies registered steep jump in interest payments at 90.3%. The sugar industry recorded a turnaround in net profits owing to increase in sales realisations by 22.8%. The edible oil industry witnessed a remarkable performance in terms of turnover as well as net profits. The turnover growth of 25.2% helped these companies to register 17.4% increase in profit after tax in H1:2008-09. At
present Companies in pharmaceuticals and medicine industry have recorded higher growth in expenditure relative to sales and thus registered no increase in their net profits over the last year’s level. While the fertilizer companies posted significant growth in sales at 97.6 per cent owing to sharp increases in global fertilizer prices. Despite high input prices and interest payments, the post tax profits increased by around 42% in H1:2008-09. Performance of motor vehicles and other transport equipments industry was subdued in the first half of 2007-08 on account of slower consumer demand. The lower turnover growth of 15%, plus relatively higher increase in expenditure by 19% accompanied by as much as 44.2% rise in interest payments affected the performance of these companies adversely. During H1:2008-09 the net profits declined by 13.8%.
The sales of machinery and machine tools industry have increased by around 18.7 %, while expenditure went up by 19.7% and their net profits have declined by 5.3% owing to surge in interest outgo by 52.7%. The computer and related activities industry continued to perform well with 28.9% increase in revenues resulting in 11.9% rise in net profits. The transport, storage and communication industry has registered revenue growth of 36%, however as the interest payments increased drastically by 585%, the net profits declined by around 11% . Whereas, the hotel and restaurant industry posted 13.8 per cent fall in net profits with a turnover growth of 10.4%. Table 4 indicates that during H1:2008-09, profits after tax (PAT) to sales ratio has declined to 9.2% (11.6% in H1:2007-08) despite the sales having increased by 32.4%. At the same time, the interest to sales ratio at 2.6% has increased as against 2% in H1:2007-08 owing to mounting interest burden across all industries.
Profits after tax (PAT) to sales ratio of mining & quarrying and food products & beverages has witnessed a rise to 30.5% and 5.8%, during H1:2008-09 as against 15.8% and 2.9%, respectively, in H1:2007-08, whereas in the case of textile industry, this ratio has declined to 0.7% from 4.2%. Cost
Cutting Measures
The economic slowdown is forcing companies in the manufacturing and services sectors to explore every possible option of reducing costs. Top ranking companies in the manufacturing sector have cut down their production, and opted for reduced working hours for their employees and are rationalising their work force. While the companies in the services sector are using various options from freezing recruitments to postponing the joining dates of new employees, to laying off ‘non performers’. A number of companies, particularly in the IT and ITeS sectors, have started cutting salaries of their employees. With revenue and profit estimated for the year under a pall of gloom, many companies have decided to give out two-thirds or one-third of the variable pay mentioned in cost-to-company (CTC) calculations for this year. Typically, the variable component of an employee’s pay is given based on the performance of the individual, his team and the organisation as a whole during the course of a year. The fixed component, in contrast, is paid irrespective of performance rating and is usually the larger chunk of the two, at around 90:10, though CTCs have lately been getting skewed towards the variable side, to as much as 70:30. Moreover, of late few companies, especially in real estate and telecom, have also started cutting the fixed pay of employees. Estimates for 2008-09 The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has revised their estimate for overall industrial growth downwards to 8.3% from 9.1% for the current fiscal year 2008-09. According to CMIE, sectors such as electricity, crude oil and petroleum products are likely to show acceleration in growth in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal year. The downtrend in aggregate sales will be largely on account of a significant slowdown in sales expansion of sectors like chemicals, information technology, commercial vehicles, auto ancillaries, two-and-three-wheelers, aluminium and aluminium products.
*
This note has been
prepared by Bipin K Deokar
Highlights of Current Economic Scene
Anticipating a dip in credit delivery by cooperative credit institutions, the Centre has asked public sector banks to lend about 10 per cent more than their target to ensure the overall target of Rs 2,80,000 crore farm credit for 2008-09 is achieved. In April-December 2008, 60.66 per cent of the target was achieved, which is lower than 66.79 per cent of the target achieved during the period in the previous fiscal. Government data for April-December 2008 has displayed that scheduled commercial banks would comfortably achieve their target, while regional rural banks would also manage to achieve their target. However, cooperatives might not be able to achieve their target, as more farmers are defaulting on loan repayment in expectation of a fresh loan waiver and settlement scheme. According
to the Solvent Extractors
Association of India, oilmeal
exports have fallen in January
2009 to 5.63 lakh tonnes from 8.39
lakh tonnes during the same period
a year ago, mainly due to poor
demand and emergence of Coffee
exports from India has declined by
15 per cent to 10,810 tonnes in
January, owing to poor demand for
instant coffee and value-added
products, caused by economic
recession. As per the estimates of
Coffee Board, total provisional
exports of coffee, including
value-added products, have stood
at 10,810 tonnes in January
against 12,692 tonnes in the same
month last year. While the
provisional export of instant
coffee have dropped to 1,866
tonnes as on January 30 from 2,760
tonnes a year ago, that of
value-added products have slumped
to just 1,015 tonnes from 2,751
tonnes during the same period.
Moreover, re-exports (shipments of
value-added products), too, have
slumped,” he said. However,
coffee export so far this fiscal
year ending March 2009 has
increased by 22 per cent in value
terms to Rs 1,815.43 crore from Rs
1,483.11 crore in the
corresponding period last fiscal
year due to high prices in global
markets even though shipment in
volumes have suffered touching
1,59,798 tonnes from 1,64,870
tonnes a year ago. The average
export price of coffee touched Rs
1,13,607 per tonne, up 26 per
cent, from Rs 89,956 a year ago. The
country has seen a record output
of tea, that is, 980.8 million kg
during 2008, driven by a
26-million kg rise in south According
to traders and market analysts,
production of jeera is likely to
fall by 20-25 per cent this year
as compared to last year due to
unfavourable weather conditions
though area covered under sowing
has increased. Foggy and humid
climate in The
latest findings by the
International Grain Council (IGC)
have revealed that global grain
output shot up 5.65 per cent in
2008 following larger than
expected production in the
northern hemisphere notably in
China, despite serious weather
problems affecting southern
hemisphere crops. Total output of
food grains, including wheat, rice
and maize among others, was
estimated at 1,788 million tonnes,
101 million tonnes higher than
1,889 million tonnes in 2007.
World carry-out stocks of grains
in 2008-09 are placed 31 million
tonnes higher than at 338 million
tonnes. Total consumption of
foodgrains is estimated to decline
by 14 million tonnes to 1,731
million tonnes, reflecting a sharp
slowdown in ethanol manufacture in
the As per the estimates provided by cotton traders in Gujarat, domestic textile mills’ cotton consumption in 2008-09 may range between 18.5 and 20 million bales, reporting a marginal decline from around 22-24.1 million bales consumed during 2007-08. This decline can be mainly attributed to reduction in purchasing power following global economic slowdown. Kishor Shah, president, South Gujarat Cotton Dealers Association (SGCDA) opines that in addition to economic turmoil and higher cotton prices, power cut in Tamil Nadu, which consumes around 50 per cent of cotton in the country as the state houses hundreds of textile mills, is also responsible for lesser cotton consumption in the country. In order to curb the increases prices of soya meal and maize, which are the most crucial ingredients of poultry feed, the poultry industry has demanded that soya meal and maize to be brought under the Essential Commodities Act. According to he National Egg Coordination Committee (NECC), the apex body of poultry farmers, hoarding and speculation, by the traders has led to abrupt rise in the prices of these commodities. Soya meal prices have shoot up to Rs 21,000 - 23,000 per tonne from price range of Rs 10,000 - 12,000 per tonne that was prevailing couple of months back.. Similarly, price of maize has also touched Rs 1,000 per quintal from Rs 600-650 a quintal per year ago. As per NECC, the break-even level for egg production has gone up from Rs 0.90 -1.00 to Rs 2.25 per egg, whereas that of broilers has increased to Rs 47-48 per kg from Rs 27-28. Many of the poultry farm owners are running short of working capital due to the losses incurred by them in the last two years. This has resulted in the closure of around 15 per cent of the industry - consisting mainly of small and marginal farmers. In order to move tobacco growers to alternative crop through a rehabilitation programme, the Tobacco Board has forwarded a proposal to the Department of Commerce outlining the broad contours of a pilot project that is spread over 202 villages in the key tobacco-growing states of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. The proposal is to phase out tobacco cultivation and to rehabilitate about 50 per cent of the tobacco growers to alternative crops over a span of 10 years. Currently, there are about 87,703 tobacco growers and about 99,143 barns registered with the board. The objective is to cut down the number of barns to 50,000 by 2020. The total number of clusters in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka are 222 with each cluster having roughly 350-500 barns. The Board has suggested that this could be met either by outright budgetary support or by levy of cess on cigarettes, the modalities of which have not yet been sorted out. Altogether, 1,993 growers in the selected cluster are included in the pilot project. The pilot project is spread over three years from 2008-09 to 2010-11. The alternative crops in each of the soil regions have also been identified. With a view to promoting seafood in the domestic market, the central government has announced subsidies (up to 20 to 25 per cent) for retail units to create necessary infrastructure to modernise their outlets complying with certain hygiene standards, and also for setting up clean wholesale markets. According to Mr P. Krishniah, Chief Executive, National Fisheries Development Board (NFDB), the subsidy scheme will cover major outlets with an investment of up to Rs 1 crore, medium size outlets with up to Rs 50 lakh investment and small units at up to Rs 10 lakh investment. For wholesale markets, the NFDB has plans to provide subsidy or grant for modernisation of wholesale fish markets. In addition, the State fisheries department is also planning to open at least 100 new seafood retail outlets across the State in a phased manner. This will also be funded by the NFDB, they added. With
a target to increase the
country’s fish production to
over 10 million tonnes by the end
of the 11th Plan from the current
6.5 million tonnes, the central
government has announced various
schemes. The government has
announced 100 per cent grant to
states for reservoir development
to increase fish production
through regular stocking of seeds.
According to Mr P.
Krishnaiah, Chief Executive,
National Fisheries Development
Board, Rs 40 crore has been
released under the scheme. The
government has also decided to
allow cultivation of Vannamei
shrimp (white shrimp), and sea
bass, which are in great demand
worldwide. In the case of Vannamei
shrimp, currently two companies
– Sarat Seafood and BMR
Hatcheries – are permitted to do
the trial run in a restricted
environment in 250 acres in There have been reports of delayed arrival of Alphonso mangoes this year due to late flowering. As per the Divisional Manager, Maharashtra State Agricultural Marketing Board, Ratnagiri district, the first week of April 2009 would see a production of about 15 to 20 per cent and by second half of April the production would touch 60 per cent. Mr Sudhir Moraeswar Joshi, Chairman of the Mango Growers Co-operative Society, Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg districts, that this year mango production from Ratnagiri and Sindhudurg is expected to be less by 50 per cent. The area under Ratnagiri mango cultivation is around 62,836 hectares with a production of 1,15,939 tonnes per annum. The area under Sindhudurg is around 26,125 hectares with an average production of three tonnes per hectare. Infrastructure The
Index of Six core industries
having a combined weight of 26.7
per cent in the Index of
Industrial Production (IIP) with
base 1993-94 stood at 247.4 in
December 2008 and registered a
growth of 2.3% compared to a
growth of 3.2% in December 2007.
During April-December
2008-09, six core-infrastructure
industries registered a growth of
3.5% as against 5.9% during the
corresponding period of the
previous year. Crude Oil production (weight of 4.17% in the IIP) registered a growth of (–) 0.3% in December 2008 compared to a growth rate of (-) 1.4% in December 2007. The Crude Oil production registered a growth of (-) 0.5% during April-December 2008-09 compared to 0.3% during the same period of 2007-08. Petroleum refinery production (weight of 2.00% in the IIP) registered a growth of 3.0% in December 2008 compared to growth of 1.9% in December 2007. The Petroleum refinery production registered a growth of 3.7% during April-December 2008-09 compared to 7.5% during the same period of 2007-08. Coal production (weight of 3.2% in the IIP) registered a growth of 9.4% in December 2008 compared to growth rate of 8.4% in December 2007. Coal production grew by 10.1% during April-December 2008-09 compared to an increase of 3.5% during the same period of 2007-08. Electricity generation (weight of 10.17% in the IIP) registered a growth of 0.7% in December 2008 compared to a growth rate of 3.9% in December 2007. Electricity generation grew by 2.6% during April-December 2008-09 compared to 6.6% during the same period of 2007-08. Cement production (weight of 1.99% in the IIP) registered a growth of 11.6% in December 2008 compared to 4.4% in December 2007. Cement Production grew by 7.0% during April-December 2008-09 compared to an increase of 7.7% during the same period of 2007-08. Finished (carbon) Steel production (weight of 5.13% in the IIP) registered a growth of (-) 0.8% in December 2008 compared to 1.8% in December 2007. Finished (carbon) Steel production grew by 2.7% during April-December 2008-09 compared to an increase of 6.4% during the same period of 2007-08. Inflation Wholesale Price Index for ‘All Commodities’ (Base: 1993-94 = 100) for the week ended 24th January 2009 declined by 0.2 percent over the week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point-to-point basis, stood at 5.07 percent for the week ended January 24, 2009 as compared to 4.78 percent during the corresponding week of the previous year. The index for major group primary articles declined marginally due to decline in prices of bajra, arhar, coffee, copra, groundnut, and gingili seed. The index for major group fuel, power, light and lubricants rose by 0.6 percent due to higher prices of naphtha, furnace oil and light diesel oil. The index for major group manufactured products declined by 0.5 percent due to lower prices of rice bran oil, coffee powder, khandasari, etc. The final wholesale price index for ‘All Commodities’ for the week ended November 29, 2008 stood at 233.3 as compared to 233.6 and annual rate of inflation based on final index, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 7.86 percent as compared to 8.00 percent. Financial
Market Developments Capital Markets Primary
Market Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) will amend its takeover regulations to ease the path for a possible acquisition of Satyam Computer and also to provide for such extraordinary cases in the future. Possibly in view of falling stock prices, the SEBI Board tightened the norms for issue of preferential warrants, raising the upfront payment to 25% from 10%. On the initial public offer (IPO) front, SEBI eased rules, allowing companies to announce their price-band even up to two days before the opening date of the issue. The price bands are usually announced in the Red Herring Prospectus about two weeks before the opening date. The timelines for bonuses has also been reduced to 15 days between the board decision and completion of bonus issue, when the articles of the company don’t call for shareholder approval. Where shareholder approval is required, the time line is 60 days. Earlier it was six months for both. The SEBI also decided that companies will announce their dividends on a “per-share” basis and not on %age basis. Mumbai-based Gemini Engi Fab has called off its IPO on 02 February 2009, a day before its scheduled opening. The Rs 44-crore issue was slated to open on 03 February and close on 09 February. Poor response from qualified institutional buyers (QIB) is the main reason cited by he merchant banker for the cancellation of the issue. Response
to EdServ’s public issue offer
was dismal on the second day of
bidding as the issue has been
subscribed 0.002 times. According
to NSE data, the issue has
received 11,600 bids for
39.73-lakh shares IPO. The offer
began on Thursday and will close
on Monday. The price band is fixed
between Rs 55 and Rs 60. EdServ is
the first company to go ahead with
its IPO in the last four months. After a long lull, Edserv Softsystems Ltd is set to tap the primary market. IPO of Rs 39.7 lakh equity shares opens on 08 February. The company has fixed a price band of Rs 55-60 per share of face value Rs 10. The issue closes on February 9. The company plans to raise around Rs 20 crore from the float, to expand humanware education & deployment system business up to 200 centers. The issue has received poor grading from rating agency CARE. As
per global consultancy firm Grant
Thornton, India Inc's capital
mobilisation through IPO has hit
rock bottom as the total amount
raised via this route in 2008
aggregated to $ 4,509 million, the
lowest in the last three years.
Capital mobilisation through IPOs
witnessed a fall both in terms of
volume and value as only 44
transactions worth $ 4508.85
million were announced. Secondary Market The markets exhibited extremely lacklustre movement amid a thin range during the week. Despite reports of a pro-industry budget and the markets gaining in three out of five sessions, key indices ended the week in the red on institutional selling and weak global cues. While the BSE Sensex down by 123.4 points or 1.3% to 9,300.9 over the week, the NSE Nifty lost 31.7 points or 1.1% to 2,843.1. The Defty lost only 0.5% as the rupee strengthened. While reports of tax relief and fiscal stimulus in the forthcoming budget has been considered a positive by the markets, poor corporate results, a fall in direct tax collection and lower exports were the dampeners. After facing a severe liquidity crunch in the later part of 2008, the mutual fund industry has shown signs of growth. The industry’s average assets under management (AAUM) in January has gone up from Rs 421,116 to Rs 460,948 crore, a rise of 9%. According to the SEBI data, mutual funds invested Rs 1,173 crore in debt instruments in January. As opposed to this, their investment in equity has been only Rs 117.50 crore. Mutual
fund investors in The NSE is all set to start the cross-margin facility across the cash and derivatives segments across all categories of market participants from 12 February. The cross-margining facility will allow the market participants to see their overall position as a basket of cash and derivatives positions as against the existing practice of treating the cash & derivatives positions separately. It also allows a market participant to reduce the total margin payment required. This method is mainly used by financial intermediaries to reduce their systematic risk. Derivatives Markets are stuck in the 2,500-3,100 range. A quiet week ended with the indices down marginally after several sessions of range-trading. Breadth signals were poor. Volumes have diminished alarmingly and the ratio of advances to declines remains negative. It has been just another dull week for traders as Nifty future chose to remain in a narrow band. It ended the week at 2835.6 points, registering a drop of 1% over that of the previous week. The discount between Nifty future and spot also narrowed during the week due to short covering, particularly on Friday. But despite that, the average trading volumes remained dull, hovering at about Rs 31,000 crore. The cumulative FII positions as a %age of the total gross market position on the derivative segment, as on February 5 was 35.52%. Foreign institutional investors indulged in alternate bouts of buying and selling in the F&O segment. They now hold index futures worth about Rs 10,355 crore (about Rs 9,553 crore) and stock future worth about Rs 11,601 crore (about Rs 11,092 crore). Their index options holding improved to about Rs 12,059 crore (about Rs 11,263 crore). The volatility index, which measures the immediate expected volatility, has jumped to 50.65 after breaching the 50-point mark a couple of times intra-day during the week. Government
Securities Market Primary
Market The Reserve bank of India (RBI) auctioned 91 Day T-Bills and 182 day T- Bills for the notified amounts of Rs 8,000 croe and 1,500 crore, respectively on 04 February 2009. The cut-off yield for the 91 day T-Bills has been set at 4.83% and for 182 day T- Bills has been set at 4.70%. Seven
State governments auctioned
10-year paper maturing in 2019 for
the notified amounts of Rs.4748.97
crore on 05 February 2009. The
cut-off yield for the security has
been set at 7.24% for Himachal
Pradesh, Goa and Punjab, 7.26% for
Tamil Nadu, 7.27% for Haryana and On 06 February 2009, RBI re-issued 7.46% 2017 and 6.30% 2023 for the notified amounts of Rs.5,000 crore and Rs.2,000 crore, respectively. The cut-off yields for the securities were 6.83% and 7.15%, respectively. Secondary
Market Call money dropped below the reverse repo rate of 4%, in view of surplus liquidity in the banking system. Bond yields softened slightly during the week as inflation weakened, though government borrowings remained high. Bonds edged higher for the first time in nine days, with the new benchmark paper yield falling 13 basis points to end the session at 5.78%. Government borrowings, so far this year, were in excess of Rs 2.07 lakh crore or about 105% of the budgeted estimates of the current year. Liquidity remained comfortable. During the week ended 06 February 2009, RBI absorbed an average amount of Rs.51,658 crore through the daily LAF reverse repo auctions. On the other hand, RBI injected an average amount of Rs.225 crore through the daily LAF repo auctions. Banks have borrowed an amount of Rs.500 crore during the week under the special term repo facility. Average CBLO volumes during the week increased by around 17% as compared to the previous week. The weighted average rates moved higher during the week, with the weighted average overnight rates at 3.68% as against 3.63% during the previous week. Banks have begun raising short-term funds through issuances of certificate of deposits (CDs) as the cost of funds has declined and the banking system remains wary of extending loans. The aggressiveness in raising funds through CD issuances has witnessed primarily among the state-run banks, who were trying to reduce their cost of funds before lowering the lending rates. Bond
Market During the week under review, one bank, one NBFC, two corporates and two central undertakings have tapped the bond market to mobilise Rs 2,592 crore.
Foreign
Exchange Market Rupee advanced for a second week as stock gains increased optimism that overseas funds will return to buy emerging-market assets. The currency appreciated for a fourth day, its best run in more than a month, as offshore non-deliverable forward contracts showed traders reduced bets for how far the rupee will decline in a month. The rupee strengthened 0.4 % this week, the highest since 19 January 2009. The rupee closed at Rs.48.73/USD on February 06, 2009 as compared with Rs.49.02/USD as on January 30, 2009. The Rupee moved between Rs.48.65 and Rs.49.01, with a standard deviation of 13 paise during the week. The six-month forward premia closed at 2.18% (annualized) on February 06, 2009 vis-à-vis 2.36% on January 30, 2009. Forward premia for one, three, six shrank to 3.28% (3.70%), 2.72% (3.23%) and 2.18% (2.38%). The 12-month forward premia, however, firmed slightly to 1.85% (1.76%) as some foreign banks took long forward cover against their FCNR deposits. Cash to spot forward premia remained at 1.77%. After
three weeks of fall, Currency
Derivatives Robust trading volumes in currency derivatives has drawn nine public-sector banks led by Bank of India, Federal Bank, MMTC, TCS and Jaypee Capital to jointly float India’s fourth currency futures exchange — the United Stock Exchange of India Ltd (USEIL). With an authorised capital of Rs 150 crore and paid-up capital of Rs 120 crore, the new exchange has received in-principle approval from the SEBI. It will commence operations in two months; USEIL expects to ride on the strength of the promoter-banks in different geographies to offer its exchange-traded currency futures product to the latter’s customers. The average combined daily trading volume in currency futures on NSE, MCX-SX and BSE is estimated at around Rs 2,000 crore. Commodities
Futures derivatives The Bombay High Court reserved its order on a dispute between the commodity market regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC) and National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX) over slashing of transaction rates by the exchange. Faced with a sharp drop in turnover since July, NCDEX created two slabs for exchange rates, before 5 pm and after 5 pm in January. NCDEX announced uniform charges of Rs 3 for every lakh of the total value of all trades in all commodities from 10 am to 5 pm and five paise in the second session from 5 pm to 11 pm. In an attempt to attract trade in the metals, the rates in the second slab were reduced drastically. But the FMC took exception to this reduction, saying it might affect the business of two other commodity exchanges adversely. FMC last month also ordered NCDEX to keep the new structure in abeyance, following which the latter moved the Bombay High Court. Copper
futures edged up on 06 February
boosted by stronger-than-expected Public
Finance The
latest data on Union government
accounts for current fiscal so far
(upto Dec 2008) reveals that while
revenue deficit at Rs. 173830
crores accelerated by 343.3%
mainly due to surge in subsidies,
especially that in fertilisers and
to some extent by the stimulus
package for pushing the economy by
increasing the plan expenditure.
The fiscal deficit increased by
181.3%. Up
to December 2008, the non-plan
expenditure at Rs. 426419 crores
was 26.5% more than that in the
corresponding period last year.
This amount of expenditure is 84%
of the budgeted expenditure. One
silver lining is the substantial
increase in the corporation and
income tax during December 2008 as
a resulted the corporation tax and
income tax has achieved 64% and
50% of their respective budget
estimates; still it was much less
than the tax mobilised in December
2007. InsuranceTata
AIG Life Insurance company and
South Indian Bank has entered into
a partnership to provide premium
renewal collection services to the
policyholders through the 520 core
banking solutions (CBS) branches
of SIB. HDFC
Standard Life, has inaugurated 13
branches in the National Capital
Region (NCR), in December 2008. Having
improved its product portfolio to
take on competition from the
private players, LIC the
country’s largest life insurer,
has expressed the confidence that
it would regain its market share
of over 60% and earn new premium
of Rs 57,000 crore by March. BankingTata
Capital will be entering the
housing finance segment and is
seeking approvals from the
regulator for the creation of a
separate housing finance company.
Apart from plans to launch a $250
million to $300 million PE fund in
the next three to six months, the
company is keenly looking at
investment banking, wealth
management services, travel and
forex, treasury advisors and
credit cards as potential
businesses. LIC
Housing Finance has slashed
lending rates for new borrowers by
100 basis points (bps) across
various loan categories. Home
loans up to Rs 30 lakh,
irrespective of the tenure, would
now be cheaper by 100 bps at
8.75%, while for loans above Rs 30
lakh, the rates are lower at 9.75%
as against 10.75% earlier. The new
rates are effective from February
1, 2009. The
RBI has cancelled the licence of
Maharashtra-based Sadhana
Co-operative Bank following
insolvency of the bank. Following
liquidation every depositor will
receive repayment of his deposit
up to a ceiling of Rs 1 lakh from
the Deposit Insurance and Credit
Guarantee Corporation. The licence
of the bank was cancelled as all
efforts to revive it in
consultation with the state
government had failed. Punjab
National Bank has launched a
Global Credit Card in association
with VISA and will be accepted in
over 2.90 crore merchant
establishments and 10 lakh ATMs
worldwide which use VISA as a
payment gateway. The credit card
will also be accepted at a host of
e-commerce sites. CorporateEven
as the Centre has launched a
damage control exercise over the
Satyam Computer Services scandal,
in a startling disclosure, Engineering
and construction major Larsen
& Tourbo (L&T) has posted
a 216% rise in net profit at Rs
1,520 crore for the quarter ended
December 31, 2008, as compared to
Rs 482 crore recorded during the
corresponding period of the
previous year. According to a
press release, net profit of Rs
1,520 crore included an
extraordinary gain of Rs 916 crore
(net of tax) from the sale of the
company’s ready mix concrete
business. Replacement
costs on faulty blades and forex
losses in the third quarter have
hit wind power major Suzlon Energy
hard, with the company posting a
net loss of Rs 59 crore compared
to net profit of Rs 152 crore in
the third quarter of 2007-08. The
results are on a consolidated
basis and include performance of
three group companies, Suzlon Wind
Group, Hansen Group and REpower
Group. Together, Suzlon, the
world’s fifth largest wind
turbine manufacturer, incurred Rs
233 crore as blade retrofit
charges in the quarter, and has
made provisions for an additional
Rs 171 crore for the same in
2008-09. The group also incurred
mark-to-market losses on foreign
exchange contracts to the tune of
Rs 124 crore in the quarter. State
gas utility GAIL India Ltd has
reported a 59% decline in its net
profit to Rs 253 crore in the
third quarter ending December 31,
2008, on more than doubling of LPG
subsidy payouts. The company’s
net profit in the October-December
period was recorded as Rs 253
crore as against Rs 621 crore a
year. The decline in profits was
on account of Rs 905 crore payout
as LPG subsidies. Spicejet
has posted a net loss of Rs 17.9
crore for the quarter ended
December 31, 2008 as against a net
profit of Rs 9.38 crore for the
same quarter in the last financial
year. French
nuclear giant Areva and Nuclear
Power Corporation of India Ltd (NPCIL)
has inked a memorandum of
understanding (MoU) that would
lead to the development of six
nuclear reactors in India with a
total investment of Rs 60,000
crore. Initially Areva will be
supplying NPCIL with two European
pressurized reactors of 1,650 MW
each. These reactors would come up
in Jaitapur in western VisionExpress,
the joint venture between Reliance
Retail and Dutch optical retailer
Pearle Eurpoe, plans to open 500
eyewear outlets across the country
by 2015 at it aims to be a leading
player in the estimated $900
million Indian optical eyewear
market. Home
appliances manufacturer Samsung Ambuja
Cement, the second largest cement
manufacturer in External
Sector
Exports
during December 2008 registered an
annual increase of 1.1% to reach
US $ 12690 million; as a result
during the fiscal year so far the
total exports at US$131990 million
registered a growth of 17.1% over
that of US $ 112737 million
reported in the comparable period
last year. Imports
during December were valued at US
$ 20256 million, an increase of
8.8 per cent over that of US$
18610 million in December 2007 and
the cumulative import at US$
225809 million was 31.5% more than
that of US $ 171718 during
April-December 2007-08. Trade
balance during December thus
worked out to be $ 7567 as
compared to 5785 in December 2007.
The cumulative trade balance for
April-December 2008 estimated at
US $ 93819 million was 1.6 times
to that of US $ 58981 million
during April-December 2007. While
oil imports during the current
fiscal year so far gone up from US
$ 54421 million in April-December
2007 to US $ 78827 million , that
of
non-oil imports accelerated
by 25.3% to US $ 146982 million. Information TechnologyIndia’s
IT industry exports will grow by
16-17% in 2008-09, around 5
percentage points lower than the
21% growth projected by Nasscom.
For the fiscal year 2009-10, the
rate of growth would be just
5.88%, with an export value of
$160 billion on account of demand
slowdown and recession in Europe
and Mobile phone company Sony Ericsson has joined hands with gaming portal Zapak.com and Microsoft XBOX360 for “World Gaming Day”. TelecomTRAI
has rapped operators for rapidly
increasing call drop rates, asking
them to reduce incidences of call
drops on the network and improve
the voice quality of services by
February 28, 2009. Trai has asked
them to report the measures
adopted by the end of the month. The
Telecom Commission, the highest
decision-making body in the
Department of Telecommunications (DoT),
has decided to refer the matter of
allowing unrestricted internet
telephony to the regulator TRAI.
DoT is seeking more
clarifications from TRAI, which
had recommended unrestricted
domestic internet telephony. This
would have allowed consumers to
make calls at much cheaper rates.
At present, a call from a computer
is allowed to another computer
within the country, but not to a
phone.
But one can make
international calls to a phone
from a computer. However, the
Telecom Commission has allowed
sale of calling cards for making
domestic and international calls
from any phone - a step that could
bring tariffs down by up to 70 %.
*These statistics and the accompanying review are a product arising from the work undertaken under the joint ICICI research centre.org-EPWRF Data Base Project. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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