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Current Economic Statistics and Review For the Week 
Ended
June 06, 2009 (23rd Weekly Report of 2009)

 

Foreign Direct Investment in India – The Recent Beginning of a Rising Phase

 

Introduction

            With a paradigm shift in economic management after the reforms began in the early 1990s, there was a metamorphic change in the perception of policy planners regarding the role of external trade and investment as well as the system of exchange rate and payments.  It was believed, contrary to the past, that a liberalised foreign trade, payments and investment system opens up a window on the world through which vast types of benefits would flow: exposure to new products, new processes, advanced technology, modern marketing and finance, employees’ skill upgradation and application of modern management techniques. The experiences of many high-performing Asian economies were held out as examples of success stories of deriving such benefits of exposure to global trade and investment [which were achieved along with, of course, those countries’ intensive focus on social sector development as well as higher levels of domestic savings and investment; many of them also have had land reforms which helped to widen their domestic markets]. 

            Drawing lessons from such experiences and also as part of the broader strategy of liberalisation and globalisation, this country too moved fast in opening up the external sector.  It was also perceived that apart from supplementing domestic savings, non-debt capital flows could provide a measure of long-term sustainability to the country’s balance of payments.  Therefore, the strategy adopted was one of shifting the weight of external sector financing from borrowing to direct equity investment inflow (and also changing the composition of commercial borrowing from sizeable short-term and government-guaranteed debt to long-term debt with minimum reliance on government guarantees).

            Subsequent to the initial initiation of reforms, liberalisation of regulations regarding foreign investment has passed through several stages.  The basic approach adopted has been one of steady but gradual relaxation of regulations. To begin with, in August 1991, dispensing with the provisions of the Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA) 1964, a system of permitting automatic approval for foreign investment up to 51% equity in 35 industries was introduced.  For industries not covered by automatic approval, a Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) was set up in the government to process the applications. There were further relaxations from time to time, but the second major step taken was in January 1997 when, for the first time, detailed guidelines for the FIPB were issued and the list of industries eligible for automatic approval was expanded to cover 48 of general category allowing equity up to 51%, 3 industries relating to mining for automatic approval up to 50% of foreign equity and another set of 9 industries eligible for 74% foreign equity. Various procedural changes effected during 1997 were also of a substantive nature designed to give a push to foreign direct investment.

Finally, as a result of the comprehensive review of the FDI policy, wide-ranging policy changes were notified in 2006; these included extending the scope of automatic route, increasing equity caps, removing restrictions, simplifying procedures and extending the horizon of FDI to vistas like single brand product retailing and agriculture. Of late, several steps have been initiated to facilitate FDI inflows which, among other things, include: raising the equity cap in civil aviation; organizing Destination India events in association with CII and FICCI with a view to attracting investments; activating the Foreign Investment Implementation Authority (FIIA)  towards speedy resolution of investment-related problems; setting up of National Manufacturing Competitiveness Council (NMCC) to provide a continuing forum for policy dialogue to energise the growth of manufacturing; regular interactions with foreign investors through bilateral/regional/international meets and meetings with individual investors; and making the website of the Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion  (www.dipp.nic.in) more user-friendly with online chat facility. The government has indicated that about 4,500 investment-related queries have been replied during just one year 2007-08 (Economic Survey 2007-08, pp.202-03).

Thus, with increased liberalisation, equity caps on FDI now exist only in a few limited sectors which are regulated  on security or other special considerations. These are: FM radio broadcasting (up to 20 per cent); insurance, defence production, petroleum refining in the PSUs, print and electronic media covering news and current affairs (up to 26 per cent); air transport services, asset reconstruction companies, cable network, direct to home (DTH), hardware for uplinking, HUB, etc. (up to 49 per cent); single brand retailing (up to 51 per cent); atomic minerals, private sector banking, telecom services, establishment and operation of satellites (up to 74 per cent). FDI is prohibited in retail trading (except for single brand product retailing), gambling and betting, lottery and atomic energy. Approval for proposals for induction of equity of more than 24 per cent for manufacture of items that are reserved for small-scale sector and the proposals where the foreign investor has an existing joint venture/technical collaboration/trademark agreement in the same field of activity and where the provisions are not under automatic route (Economic Survey 2006-07, p.154).

FDI Flows Did Not Yield Results on Expected Lines Initially

            When external sector liberalisation was thus conceived and implemented, there was a distinct expectation, as hinted at earlier, that there would be greater flow of FDI as compared with portfolio flows.  There were concerted efforts towards that end, but they did not yield the desired results for quite some years.  No doubt, an environment of substantial openness got created in the economy.  A large number of foreign collaboration approvals was accorded in the initial years themselves.  For instance, between August 1991 and 1994, the Government had approved 5,778 foreign collaboration proposals including 2,806 foreign equity proposals amounting to Rs 22,238 crore.  Earlier, for 15 years there were very few such approvals under the FERA.  As a consequent to the amendments to the FERA and the liberalisation of foreign investment policy, many multinational companies (MNCs) could increase their equity holdings beyond 51%.  Many companies like Coca Cola and IBM, which had exited from the Indian market in the 1970s, returned to the country.  Later on, by the end of September 2004, the number of fresh foreign collaborations approved since liberalization had increased by nearly 12,000.

 

 

 Table 1: Foreign Investment Flows By Different Categories

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1992-93

1993-94

1994-95

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

A

 

Direct Investment

315

586

1314

2144

2821

3557

2462

2155

 

a

RBI automatic route

42

89

171

169

135

202

179

171

 

b

SIA/FIPb route

222

280

701

1249

1922

2754

1821

1410

 

c

NRI

51

217

442

715

639

241

62

84

 

d

Acquisition of shares $

 

 

 

11

125

380

4000

490

B

 

Portfolio Investment

244

3567

3824

2748

3312

1828

-61

3026

 

a

FIIS #

1

1665

1503

2009

1926

979

-390

2135

 

b

Euro Equities &

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ADRs/GDRs @

240

1520

2082

683

1366

645

270

768

 

c

Offshore funds & others

3

382

239

56

20

204

59

123

 

 

Total (A+B)

559

4153

5138

4892

6133

5385

2401

5181

C

 

Growth Scenario

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

a

Real GDP growth (%)

5.4

5.7

6.4

7.3

8

4.3

6.7

6.4

 

b

Manufacturing GDP growth (%)

3.1

8.6

10.8

15.5

9.5

0.1

3.1

3.2

*Provisional

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

$ Relates to acqusition of shares of Indian companies by non-residents under section 29 of Fera

 

 

# Represents fresh inflow/ outflow of funds by FIIs

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 @. Fiqures include GDRs/ADRs amounts raised abroad by indian corporates

 

 

 

 

Source :Government of India : Economic Survey 2000-2001

 

 

 

 

 

 

            Even so, the FDI in terms of the amounts of annual flows remained meagre in the range of less than $1 billion or thereabout per year until 1994-95 and between $2 to $4 billion per year thereafter for 15 years until 2004-05 (Tables 1 and 2).  This happened because the amounts of FDI involved in individual collaboration and other approvals were meagre, many of them giving the impression of attempts being made to formally enter the Indian market and not for immediate execution of investment projects.  The meagre nature of this FDI flow stands out when we compare them with two other indicators.  First, the portfolio inflows into India , had overtaken the FDI inflows in the initial years of reforms themselves.  For instance, FDI inflow in 1993-94 was $586 million, but portfolio inflows had totalled $3,567 million; investments by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) alone were $1,665 million in the year.  In the next year 1994-95, FDI totalled $1,314 million, whereas portfolio investments aggregated $3,824 million (Table 1).

                                                                        Table 2:  FDI  by Host Region                                                

 

 

 

 

 

 

(US $ million )

 

 

Country

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999*

China

11156

27515

33787

35849

40180

44236

43751

40400

India

233

550

973

2144

2426

3577

2635

2168

Indonesia

1777

2004

210

4346

6194

4677

-356

-3270

Korea   Rep. Of

727

588

991

1357

2308

3088

5215

10340

Malaysia

5183

5006

4581

5816

7296

6513

2700

3532

Philippines

228

1238

1591

1459

1520

1249

1752

737

Thailand

2114

1805

1343

2000

2405

3732

7449

6078

All  Developing Countries

51108

78813

104920

111884

145030

178789

179481

207619

(including China )

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share of India in Developing Countries

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.9

1.7

2.0

1.5

1

* estimates

Note: Figures for India in this Table may not be comparable with those in other tables because of differences in coverage and

source of information.

Source :World Investment Report ,United Nations 2000 (Cited in Economic Survey 2000-01)

Second, the FDI inflow into India appeared unusually miniscule when compared with the inflows in favour of China and also many south-east Asian economies (Graph A). As we would explain shortly, China ’s is a special case containing many peculiar features.  Even so, there is no  gainsaying that China ’s achievements on the FDI front has been phenomenal.  Even some of the other countries like Korea , Malaysia , Indonesia and Thailand , have experienced much bigger amounts of FDI inflows than that of India (Table 2).  India ’s FDI share never crossed 2% of the total FDI inflows of all developing countries.  China and the east-Asian countries did experience a slight setback after the Asian crisis of 1997 but it was short-lived.  FDI inflow into East Asia recovered from $70 billion in 1999 to $105 billion in 2004 and $157 billion in 2007 (Table 3). In the comparable period, the Chinese FDI steadily increased from $40 billion to $60.6 billion and finally to $83.5 billion.  An interesting story forming part of this global FDI flow is the sudden steep increase in such flow into the Indian economy after 2005. Incidentally, as explained below, the data for India and China are not strictly comparable.

Table 3: Regional FDI Inflows

(In Billion US $ )

 

 

 

 

Year

East Asia

India

China

 

 

 

 

1995

48

2.14

35.85

1996

52

2.77

40.8

1997

60

3.62

45.3

1998

62

3.08

45.46

1999

70

2.44

40.32

2000

118

2.91

40.72

2001

70

4.22

46.88

2002

58

3.13

52.74

2003

60

2.63

53.51

2004

105

3.76

60.63

2005

116

5.55

72.41

2006

132

15.73

72.72

2007

157

24.58

83.52

2008

 

27.31

 

 

 

 

 

Source : UNCTAD:World Development Reports

Quantum Leap in FDI Since 2005-06

            It is this development of a sudden surge in India ’s FDI inflow that deserves to be noted with some satisfaction and it also calls for some explanation.  As shown in Table 4, the country’s FDI inflow has risen from $3.78 billion in 2004-05 to $5.55 billion in 2005-06 and galloped thereafter to $24.58 billion in 2007-08 and to $27.31 billion in 2008-09.  It is found that for the first time since the reforms began that the FDI inflows in the form of direct equity (i.e., excluding reinvested earnings of FDI companies operating in India) have overtaken the portfolio inflows of FIIs in 2006-07 and continued to be so in 2007-08, while in 2008-09, there has been a steep disinvestment by FIIs but FDI flows have continued to expand (Table 4).

            A few global and domestic factors have contributed to the expansion in India ’s FDI flow in recent years.  As UNCTAD’s annual investment review of 2008 has reported, contributing to this robust growth of FDI inflows are significant numbers of cross-border mergers  and acquisitions (M&As) and general improvements in investment environment; these improvements included further liberalisation of FDI, better economic integration, resilient economic growth and strong industrial investment and growth.

Table 4: Foreign Investment Inflows

(US $ million)

Item

1995-96

1996-97

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08(P)

2008-09(P)

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

A.

Direct Investment   

2,144

2,821

3,557

2,462

2,155

4,029

6,130

5,035

4,322

6,051

8,961

22,826

34,362

33,613

 

 (I+II+III)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I.   Equity

2,144

2,821

3,557

2,462

2,155

2,400

4,095

2,764

2,229

3,778

5,975

16,481

26,867

27,807

 

(a+b+c+d+e)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

a. Government  (SIA/FIPB)

1,249

1,922

2,754

1,821

1,410

1,456

2,221

919

928

1,062

1,126

2,156

2,298

4,677

 

b. RBI

169

135

202

179

171

454

767

739

534

1,258

2,233

7,151

17,129

17,998

 

c. NRI

715

639

241

62

84

67

35

 

d. Acquisition of shares *

11

125

360

400

490

362

881

916

735

930

2,181

6,278

5,148

4,632

 

e. Equity capital of

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

unincorporated bodies #

..

..

..

..

..

61

191

190

32

528

435

896

2,292

500

 

II. Reinvested earnings +

..

..

..

..

..

1,350

1,645

1,833

1,460

1,904

2,760

5,828

7,168

4,725

 

III. Other capital ++

. .

. .

. .

. .

. .

279

390

438

633

369

226

517

327

1,081

B.

Portfolio Investment

2,748

3,312

1,828

-61

3,026

2,760

2,021

979

11,377

9,315

12,492

7,003

29,395

-13,855

 

(a+b+c)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

a. GDRs/ADRs # #

683

1,366

645

270

768

831

477

600

459

613

2,552

3,776

8,769

1,162

 

b. FIIs **

2,009

1,926

979

-390

2,135

1,847

1,505

377

10,918

8,686

9,926

3,225

20,328

-15,017

 

c. Offshore funds and others

56

20

204

59

123

82

39

2

16

14

2

298

Total (A+B)

4,892

6,133

5,385

2,401

5,181

6,789

8,151

6,014

15,699

15,366

21,453

29,829

63,757

19,758

Source: RBI (2009): RBI Bulletin, May

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

            In India ’s case, all of these factors seem to have played a role. The most significant, as brought out in Table 5, has been the economy’s growth momentum which picked up after 2003-04 or thereabout and continued until 2007-08. More noteworthy aspect of the growth climate has been the historically high levels of domestic saving and investment rates attained during the period. The increases of saving rate from 26.3% in 2002-03 to 37.7% in 2007-08 and investment rate from 25.2% to 39.1% during the same period, have been truly unprecedented.  They do reflect the overall improvement in the economic climate which has contributed to a better attraction of FDI into the country

 

Table 5: India 's FDI Inflows and the Growth Scenario

Year

Amount of FDI

Growth Indicators

 

Inflows *

 

 

 

 

In Rupees, Crore

In US $ Million

Real GDP

Domestic Saving Rate

Investment Rate

 

 

 

 Growth (%)

(%)

(%)

1991-2000

60,604

16698

 

 

 

(August 1991-March 2000)

 

 

 

 

 

2000-01

12646

2908

4.4

23.7

24.3

2001-02

19361

4222

5.8

23.5

22.8

2002-03

14932

3134

3.8

26.3

25.2

2003-04

12117

2634

8.5

29.8

27.6

2004-05

17138

3759

7.5

31.7

32.1

2005-06

24613

5546

9.5

34.2

35.5

2006-07

70630

15726

9.7

35.7

36.9

2007-08

98664

24579

9

37.7

39.1

2008-09

122919

27309

6.7

-

-

 

 

 

 

 

 

*Including Advance Figures and do not cover re-invested earnings.

 

 

Source:www.dipp.nic.in and CSO: National Accounts Statistic(NAS)

 

 

In addition, reports suggest that some significant rationalisation and simplification of government procedures have taken place in recent years.  Secondly, the interest shown by some state governments in attracting investments in their respective states is indeed noteworthy.  They have shown competitive spirit including providing fiscal concessions for investment projects. In this respect, the dynamic spirits shown by Karnataka, Tami Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Gujarat stand out.  Next to Delhi and Maharashtra , they have attracted  the maximum amounts of FDI in that order.  Finally, it is found that there has occurred substantial transformation in the spirit of competitiveness and enterprise amongst the Indian businessmen in recent years, particularly after the 1990s, which is reflected in large numbers of mergers and acquisitions and technological tie-ups. 

Table 6: Foreign  Direct  Investment  Flows  (FDI)

(Millions of Dollars and Percentage)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As  Percentage of GrossFixed Capital Formation (GFCF)

FDI flows

1999-2000

2004

2005

2006

2007

1990-2000

2005

2006

2007

 

 

(Annual average)

 

 

 

 

(Annual average)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

India

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inward

1705

5771

7606

19662

22950

1.8

3

6.6

5.8

 

Outward

121

2179

2978

12842

13649

 

1.2

4.3

3.5

China

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inward

30104

60630

72406

72715

83521

11

7.7

6.4

5.9

 

Outward

2195

5498

12261

21160

22469

1

1.3

1.9

1.6

United States

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inward

109513

135826

104773

236701

232839

7

4.3

9.1

9

 

Outward

92010

294905

15369

221664

313787

6.3

0.6

8.5

12.1

East Asia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inward

48834

106331

116177

131879

156706

8.8

9

8.7

8.6

 

Outward

29472

62924

49836

82301

102865

5.5

3.9

5.4

5.7

World

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inward

492605

717695

958697

1411018

1833324

7.7

9.7

12.9

14.8

 

Outward

492535

920151

880808

1323150

1996514

7.9

9

12.2

16.2

Source: UNCTAD (2009): World Investment Report 2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

            Also, as cited earlier, the recent period has such renewed intensity of cross-border capital flows and India has benefited from that phenomenon.  But, it is found that for once, India ’s  rate  of expansion in FDI flows or even the absolute increases in such FDI has been higher than that of China .  India added about $10 billion each in 2006 and 2007 to its flow of FDI, but China added a little above $10 billion in these two years together (Table 6). As a result, India ’s inward FDI flow as percentage of the country’s gross fixed capital formation has touched the corresponding ratio now obtaining for China (Table 6).  In 2005, the ratio for India was 3.0% but it increased to 6.6% in 2006 and 5.8% in 2007.  China ’s, on the other hand, was far ahead at 7.7% in 2005 but fell thereafter to 6.4% and 5.9% in the subsequent two years, respectively.  Even the stock of FDI as percentage of GDP has almost doubled from 3.7% in 2000 to 5.7% in 2006 and 6.7% in 2007 in the case of India .   In the case of China, on the other hand, because of continuously high rates of economic growth followed by the reduced pace of FDI flow, the corresponding ratio has dipped from 16.2 to 10.5% and 10.1% during the above period (Table 7).

Table 7: Foreign  Direct  Investment  Stocks   (FDI)

(Millions of Dollars and Percentage)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As a Percentage of Gross domestic Product(GDP)

FDI Stocks

1990

1995

2000

2006

2007

1990

2000

2006

2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

India

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inward

1657

5641

17517

52369

76226

0.5

3.7

5.7

6.7

 

Outward

124

495

1859

15900

29412

 

0.4

1.7

2.6

China

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inward

20691

101098

193348

292559

327087

5.1

16.2

10.5

10.1

 

Outward

4455

17768

27768

73330

95799

1.1

2.3

2.6

3

United States

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inward

394911

535553

1256867

1843885

2093049

6.8

12.8

14

15.1

 

Outward

430521

699015

1316247

2454674

2791269

7.4

13.4

18.6

20.2

East Asia

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inward

240645

357419

710475

1213092

1691138

25.9

32.1

28.6

35

 

Outward

49032

149444

509637

927658

1348860

5.4

23.2

21.9

28

World

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Inward

1941252

2914356

5786700

12470085

15210560

9.1

18.1

25.5

27.9

 

Outward

1785267

2941198

6148211

12756149

15602339

8.5

19.4

26.3

28.9

Source: UNCTAD (2009): World Investment Report 2008