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Current Economic Statistics and Review For the Week 
Ended September 12, 2008 (37th Weekly Report of 2008)

 

Theme of the week:

 

Towards Financial Inclusion *  

Though the term financial inclusion is of recent origin, the idea of extending the operations of organised financial sector, primarily banks, to rural areas and sectors such as agriculture, tiny industries, and weaker sections of society was always part of the policy agenda in India . The Reserve Bank of India 's role in institutional development, unlike many other Central Banks, emanated from this perceived need to widen the scope of organised financial system. Inadequate access to financial services may hamper income-generating opportunities available to poor and weaker sections. As a result, expansion in the reach of organised financial system so that dependence on unorganised financial sector i.e. moneylenders is progressively brought down has remained important objective of public policy.  However, this goal of increasing the reach of organised financial sectors seems to have remained elusive. Despite setting up of several specialised  institutions for lending to preferred sectors (agriculture, small businesses) region (North East) and several mandated programmes of lending to weak and poor sections by commercial and co-operative banks, access to organised financial system by poor and weak household has remained limited.

NSSO data for 2003 found that out of the total number of farm households (89.35 mn.) only 43.42 mn. (48.6 per cent) had borrowed either from formal or informal sources. Out of these, only 24.39 mn. households forming 27.3 per cent of total farm household had borrowed from formal sources. Thus remaining nearly 73 per cent farm household had no access to formal sources of credit. The extent of exclusion inevitably varies across different regions and among different classes of households but the average itself is high. Financial exclusion is not limited to rural areas & given the trend towards urbanization, urban incidence of financial exclusion may become more predominant. 

Eleventh Five year Plan (2007-12) aims at specifically to achieve accelerated and inclusive economic growth. An inclusive growth process would enable relatively poor and weaker sections to share the benefits from economic growth but achievement of this ambitious goal would, inter alia, depend on financial system being more responsive to the financial needs of relatively poor. An inclusive financial system would ideally provide easy access to services and products offered by organised financial system. Such access would enable relatively poor to improve their incomes and also provide better access to education, health and financial security. Though it’s indeed a challenge to make organised financial system more accessible to relatively poor, this issue is not generally included in the agenda for financial sector reforms.

However, inclusiveness of financial system is presently getting more attention as reflected in recently submitted reports of the two committees appointed by government (GOI, 2008) and (NCEUS, 2007). The former report, of a committee chaired by Dr. C. Rangarajan, (hereafter Rangarajan Committee) has formulated a strategy and suggested measures to solve the problem of financial exclusion from a general perspective. The latter report, of a committee chaired by Dr. Arjun Sengupta (hereafter Sengupta committee), is focused specifically on finding ways to meet the financial needs of small manufacturing and services enterprises in the unorganised sector. Though both these reports recognize the importance of credit absorption capacity of the poor (the demand side factors) as a relevant factor, both the reports are focused mainly on improving credit delivery system

Reserve Bank of India also exhorts commercial banks to improve accessibility of banking services by introducing products (e.g. no-frills saving account) aimed at relatively poor and weaker sections.  Frequent incidences of farmers' suicides have also underscored the question of improving their access to organised financial system and the terms at which they get loans from unorganised lenders. A Committee appointed by the RBI has recommended suitable changes in the legal framework, which seeks to regulate money-lending activities (RBI, 2007). Literature dealing with the problems in working of financial institutions that are operating in rural areas provide another important dimension of the challenges involved in moving towards an inclusive financial system (Ministry of Finance, 2004).

 As the poor transact in small magnitudes, the cost of providing services on a miniscule scale increases prohibitively, necessitating partial subsidies to make these services affordable to poor. While institutions that are focused on profits would obviously stay away from the business of offering small loans to weaker sections, even non-profit organizations would face limitations in reaching out unless cost of transactions and associated risks are simultaneously reduced to an acceptable level. State owned institutions, not exclusively aiming at short-term profitability, have certainly a potentially important role but limited results achieved in the past from this target setting approach are too obvious to ignore. Equally important would be to use the potential of the new technology (like mobile phones) to reduce costs and adopting new business models with more flexibility and freedom accorded to public and private institutions. The international trend indicates more reliance on innovation so that financial inclusion becomes a co-operative, innovative and flexible activity rather remaining a subsidy driven state directed effort.   

The need to provide financial services to all segments of population is being recognized in several countries since 1980s. The failure of state supported/owned financial institutions to meet the financial needs of the poor prompted efforts to develop new channels to reach small, poor customers.  As a result, importance of Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs) whether in non-profit or for profit private institutions and joint lending through Self Help Groups (SHGs) formed by poor people is being recognized on a world wide scale. The novelty of this new approach is to organize lending activities directed at poor people on a self-sustained basis with no or minimum use of subsidies. It also results in use of new technological and institutional devices to address the information related problems in small scale lending. The high cost of small financial transactions is understandably an important barrier faced by organised financial entities. But to gather information and monitor performance of small lender presents no less formidable difficulty. While new chip based technologies have opened up the opportunities to reduce costs of transactions considerably, mechanism of joint lending has opened an opportunity to address some of the information related problems. As the expanse of micro finance activities have significantly increased, the focus is now moved to make MFIs more clients centered. In the process, diversification of their activities is also advocated so that they no longer remain only credit supplying institutions but become micro financial services entities that offer a range of services such as savings, fund transfer, credit, insurance, pension etc. If the earlier attempts were altruistic & paternalistic wherein government sponsored agencies provided small credits at subsidised interest rates, the new approach is technology driven, innovation based, more client-focused and cooperative or collaborative. As described by Matin (2002) "Microfinance is not magic sky hook that reaches down to pluck the poor out of poverty. It can however be a strategically vital platform that poor can use their own prospects for an escape from poverty." Moreover competition is forcing big business entities, to tap the market at the "bottom of the pyramid" in several manufacturing and services sectors. Such attempts like designing products suitable for poor households and finding new channels to reach them are guided primarily to increase markets share through innovation. (Prahalad, 2005)  Micro finance represents a similar trend where innovative private efforts are in consonance with the interests of small customers. Nearer home, the recently released draft reports of the Committee on Financial sector Reform (hereafter Raghuram Rajan Committee) presents a different perspective to improve inclusiveness of the financial system by harnessing voluntary efforts. 

This paper is an attempt at evaluating different constraints that limit accessibility of poor people to organised financial system and different measures identified to make financial system more inclusive through the above mentioned reports and other related literature. It would also identify next feasible steps that may help in achieving improved access of financial to poor.

Dimensions of the problem

            The Rangarajan committee defines financial inclusion as " the process of ensuring access to financial services and timely and adequate credit where needed by vulnerable groups such as the weaker sections and low income groups at affordable cost" Sharma (2008) defines financial exclusion "as a process that ensures easy access, availability and usage of the formal financial system for all members of an economy". As banks, quite often, are primary source of financial services banking inclusion is considered same as financial exclusion.

However arguing for a new paradigm (Arunachalam, 2008) argues for "to truly financially include the poor would require creating a variety of risk/vulnerability management mechanisms and ensuring that are consistently and simultaneously available. Unless major risks are simultaneously covered, the likelihood of one risk wiping out an entire livelihood is very highly and people who have been temporarily included would be excluded again"(emphasis in original). While such an all encompassing approach makes the task of achieving financial inclusion more demanding, such risk perspective would also help us understand the persistence of financial exclusion.

A credit-focused approach certainly ignores other services such as insurance services but credit is perhaps the most basic need. Admittedly all credit needs are not production related, and poor would, at times, also need credit for consumption purposes, social functions and even accessing health or education. Organised financial system finds it difficult to offer credit for such purposes. Unorganised financial system has an edge in this regard.

High risks associated with credit extended to small borrowers from agriculture and small manufacturing or service enterprises may be easy to contemplate. But ability and willingness of lenders to assume such risks is not very common and forms the major hurdle in achieving financial inclusion. State level agencies are admittedly not constrained by compulsions of earning profits, but their ability to be flexible and innovative is limited and cannot be wished away. Achieving higher financial inclusion would be facilitated by co-operative efforts by a variety of institutions be it in state sector or private sector.

While for-profit lending entities may adopt a conservative stance is assuming low risk profile with their limited appetite for risk, even not-for-profit entities may not be comfortable with high degrees of underlying risks. High cost of undertaking small transactions affects the supply and measures to reduce transaction costs would certainly help augment supply of such services. Similarly high-risk profile would certainly be a dampener beyond a limit and prove very difficult to handle by financial services sector alone.

In the case of (small) loans extended to marginal dry land farmers, the resultant high risk due to uncertain rainfall, difficulties in accessing all necessary inputs, production uncertainties due uncertain weather conditions points at potentially high default probability. Similar is the case with loans extended to small enterprises that have a weak position in the input and output markets due to their relative disadvantageous position in acquiring necessary inputs, technology & marketing support. Unless these risks are successfully mitigated, lenders' reluctance would remain quite formidable. 

This would also explain phenomenon of low availability & usage even when penetration is high. Sharma (2008) has found that India 's rank on the basis of an Index of Financial Inclusion falls to 50 from 29 when penetration is excluded.[1] Moreover, prevalence of financial exclusion among developed countries also shows multiple dimensions of the problem. Kaplan (1999) reported that 9 per cent of the households in the United Kingdom were completely excluded from the organised financial system and further 19 per cent households had accessibility but were using these services sparingly.  Low net household income was identified as one of the important reasons. Being too old or young, being woman or unemployed besides language barrier, religion & lack of knowledge were also important explanatory factors. It may therefore not feasible to target zero financial exclusion as an immediate target with focus of improving delivery mechanism alone.  Solving the problems of the poorest of the poor household (which may be destitute and / or ill) may be rather too difficult to solve only through financial inclusion.

Rangarajan Committee

            The Rangarajan committee has made several recommendations to improve the credit delivery through conventional and innovative modes. The Committee has suggested a plan to achieve complete financial inclusion by 2015, which may sound quite ambitious in view of still prevalent financial exclusion in developed countries. While the committee has suggested setting up of two special funds; Financial Inclusion Promotion and Development Fund and Financial Inclusion Technology Fund of Rs. 500 crore each, the main thrust remains on more vigorous efforts through channels already established. The committee suggests that a target of approaching and extending credit to 250 new households per branch per annum for rural branches of commercial and Regional Rural Banks (RRBs) be set in so as to achieve the goal of total financial inclusion.

The committee mentions several channels to achieve the set task. These include RRBs, which are crucial due to their branch network being in rural areas and commercial banks, which provide large quantum of credit to priority sectors. In addition, it also recommends measures such as expanding coverage of Business Correspondence / Facilitators (BC/BF) model, strengthening of Bank SHG linkages, extending Bank SHG linkage scheme to urban areas, revitalising of co-operative credit system, promotion and also regulation of MFIs and linking micro credit to micro insurance to make financial inclusion more complete and meaningful.

            The main thrust of the Rangarajan Committee is mainly to suggest incremental improvements in the existing delivery mechanism to make it more effective. However, it also makes certain significant recommendations, which if implemented, would have far reaching implications

It accords an important role to RRBs in achieving financial inclusion & therefore suggests suspension of the mergers & consolidation process currently underway. However, if local, regional specialisation is valuable in the context of financial inclusion, the rationale for allowing consolidation up to sponsor level banks within a state is not clear. It's recommendation for banks to undertake incremental rural lending through group mode so that NPAs are kept in check (p. 66) is in line with research findings (e.g. Cull et al, 2007) but success of joint lending or SHGs would depend on local support and leadership and may necessitate slower pace of target based expansion.  

Successful adoption of BC/BF mode by RRBs would also be a formidable challenge. Besides difficulties in seeking employee consent for such a proposal, successful adoption of this mode would require internal changes in workings of commercial and rural banks. The committee has recommended according complete freedom to commercial banks in choosing BC/BF. However, if BC/BF mode is suitable to expand the reach of the financial system it is not clear why this model should be in addition to existing branch model as suggested by the committee. If banks are to get full freedom in choice of BF/BC they may as well be free to decide whether to open new branches or new business correspondents to expand their reach.

 The committee suggests introducing an incentivisted system of performance appraisal for the staff of RRBs so that clear incentives are provided for achievement of financial inclusion. Such a system may include indicators such as new households brought under banking fold, increase in number of HSG/Joint Liability Groups etc. These are indeed radical suggestions and if implemented could prove to be precursor to significant changes in Human Resource system in the public sector banks.

Sengupta Committee

As mentioned above the Sengupta Committee has focused its attention on funding needs of commercial enterprises in the unorganised sector and made several policy recommendations in this regard. However, these recommendations are based largely on intensive target setting efforts to improve credit flows to such enterprises. These include changing the priority sector norms so that small borrowers get the requisite attention. It suggests new carrots (higher coverage under credit guarantee scheme), and penalties to those banks which to not meet the norms of lending to weaker sections (to be finalised by the RBI), amplification of delivery mechanism through strengthening of RRBs, fixing of targets to get new customers from the target segments like unorganised enterprises, better co-ordination among different banks in a region (say a taluqa ) and better co-ordination among banks with planning authorities at the district level.

The Committee however does not consider wider implications of its recommendations. For example, whether as a result of providing higher credit guarantee coverage to commercial banks whether banks would need to pay higher premium or if not how the deficit would be bridged is ignored. Similarly, the committee sees the conflict its recommendation would have on profit seeking behaviour of commercial banks but, rather than suggesting any measures that would soften this conflict, favours a revised measure of measuring profitability of bank branches which measures profitability for a cluster of branches rather than measuring it for each branch.

It also feels that higher support to micro finance institutions by banks and other institutions could be achieved through a suitable directive from the government. In addition to these suggestions that have a direct bearing on working of financial institutions, it suggests other measures like better co-ordination among different agencies supporting unorganised enterprises, strengthening of self-employment schemes, improving productivity in unorganised enterprises etc.

All these measures are centered on role of government owned agencies and financial institutions in enhancing credit support to the targeted sector. The committee however, does not present any analysis about why the policies pursued in the past were not successful nor does it explain why similar policies would be successful now.

Not only it follows a target based approach directed at government owned banks and financial institutions, but in contrast to suggestions it received about institutional arrangements (viz. not to create new institutions (page 162)), ends up in recommending setting up a new institution viz. National Fund for Unorganised Sector (NAFUS)! [2] NAFUS is considered necessary to meet the credit needs of enterprises in the unorganised sector (defined as enterprises employing less than 10 employees) as the existing institutional arrangements are unable to provide adequate credit. It suggests setting up the NAFUS as a statutory body under an Act of Parliament. It would have an authorised capital of Rs. 1000 crore which would be held by Central Government, financial institutions with central government holding would remain at least 51 per cent at all times. The target group for NAFUS would be Unorganised manufacturing enterprises employing Rs. 5 Lakh in plant & machinery; this investment limit would be Rs. 2 lakh for non-manufacturing enterprises.

It is envisaged that the proposed Fund would provide credit and service support to target enterprises. Such services would include vocational training, marketing support, raw material procurement etc. The Fund would meet its fund requirements by way of refinance from banks and financial institutions, borrowing by tax-free / SLR bonds and international borrowing.  Here again the committee does not comment on implication of current policy of not providing government guarantees to bonds floated by financial institutions in domestic or institutional markets. This perhaps may be explained because the committee's task of setting up NAFUS was mandated by National Common Minimum Programme of the UPA .

The committee does not seem to consider the portfolio risk and the resulting financial health hazard to be faced by the new financial entity. NAFUS would provide refinance support to small loans extended to unorganised enterprises. Given the weak position of these units rough economic weather would hit such enterprises first leading defaults. This can only impact portfolio quality of NAFUS.

Under Financial exclusion whether availability of credit or cost of credit is more binding constraint? Despite both the Rangarajan Committees and the Sengupta committee (RS) have focused on improvements in the delivery system, these have not considered the effect of interest rate ceilings on supply of such loans. The Sengupta committee considers the impact of interest rates only from the demand side. Under normal circumstances, high interest rates would certainly deter borrowers but interest rate ceilings render business of giving small loan unattractive to lenders. But it has been agued that the rates charged by moneylenders are quite high and access to credit would improve as long as organised sector loans are offered at relatively lower rate. The combined effect of current ceiling on small loans and the high transaction costs of such loans surely have a negative effect on voluntary efforts by lending agencies to increase such loans. International research findings indicate that the impact of interest rates on quality of portfolio is sensitive to the institutional arrangements. In the case of individual loans there is positive relation between interest rates and portfolio at risk but for group lending this effect is not significant (Cull at al, 2007 pp. F126).

Raghuram Rajan Committee

            Draft report submitted by the Raghuram Rajan Committee has considered, inter alia, financial inclusion as an important dimension of overall programme of financial sector reforms. Unlike the Sengupta committee, the Raghuram Rajan committee's approach is centered on encouraging innovative private, decentralized efforts through making approaching financially excluded commercially more attractive. The committee sees a great potential for modern technology in reducing cost of small transactions. It recommends abolition of interest rate ceilings on small sized loans to make such business more attractive to banks.

The Committee recommends tradable Priority Sector Lending Certificates (PSLC) so that institutions that fall short of meeting the regulatory requirements could purchase (PSLC) certificate at a market-determined price. It is envisaged that purchase of these certificate would not transfer the credit risk; but the purchasing bank could claim credit for meeting the shortfall in required priority sector lending. The market can be expanded by including charities and NGOs to participate in the market as purchaser. However, this measure by itself is unlikely to increase overall supply of priority sector loans unless non-bank entities participate on a significant scale to purchase such certificates. 

The committee also recommends entry of new private well-governed small finance banks that could focus locally. Such banks, with their local knowledge, may have an edge in project selection and monitoring. Such banks would, however, be subjected to higher capital requirement to reflect high risk faced by them. It also recommends more leeway to banks in developing correspondent relationship to expand their reach without setting up branches. The committee also felt that financial inclusion need not be considered in the context of credit alone but it should also include other money transfer and insurance products. Similarly, financial exclusion is not only prevalent in rural areas and also prevails even in urban conglomerates. The Committee believes new technology could help cost reduction and prevent potential frauds. The committee's approach is thus on cost reduction and making the risk profile of small loans more acceptable to the lenders.

Concluding Observations

A quick reading of the above mentioned reports highlights certain common elements in their approach to financial inclusion. Potential use of modern technology and creating strong relationship between organised financial institutions and unorganised operators to expand the reach of organised financial system is propounded by all of them. With fast pace of urbanization, financially excluded people too are likely to migrate in urban areas. As recommended by the Rangarajan & Raghuram Rajan Committees, it would be critical to address the exclusion in urban areas, as we seem to have seen it mainly as rural phenomenon so far.

But there is a sharp contrast between more flexible, market based approach that provides more space for private initiatives is suggested by the Raghuram Rajan Committee while the RS committees have recommended a target based approach. The Sengupta Committee has recommended setting up of a new institution, which would provide funding support to rural banks to achieve the newly suggested better-focused targets of lending to small enterprises in unorganised  sector. The new institution would depend on central government support by way of guarantees and tax breaks for fund mobilization on the required scale.

 The Raghuram Rajan committee instead depends on allowing new small finance banks in private sector. It would be a valid concern as to whether private initiative would materialise on the required large scale? However, if transaction costs come down considerably and loan interest ceiling are removed (or markedly relaxed) the improved profitability would be conducive for private initiative. In this scenario private efforts to expand business would be in line with demands of financial inclusion.

The alternative approach depends almost exclusively on directing government owned banks and institutions to expand credit to target groups on a stipulated scale. The suggested target are quite ambitious and even if these targets are achieved in the stipulated time frame, resulting financial inclusion would be on a sustained basis, only if the household activities funded under this programme remain profitable and sustainable. To make activities of excluded households viable would need immense change; technology, marketing and organizational. True, the RS committees envisage, in addition to finance, service support in terms of entrepreneurship, technology & marketing etc,

Integration of such large number of small producers with rest of the economy is indeed a sort of Great Transformation. Would such a great transformation be led by finance or it would follow such real changes? The RS committees seem to be presuming a lead role for finance. If this optimism is justified by actual events every thing would be fine but such optimism is unsupported by past experience.

There are several instances wherein similar ventures of providing entrepreneurial, technological, marketing support to target groups like SSIs, tiny industries were not very successful. Technical Consultancy Organisations set up in 1970s in different states is a case in point. Several state governments have established special development corporations aiming at up-liftment of weaker sections in general or from particular casts or tribes. Detailed information on their achievements is difficult to gather but it may not be far off-the mark to say that their achievements were at best modest. Even co-operative credit institutions were thought to have advantage in terms of local knowledge and better credit discipline among members. The reality check is reflected in 45.7 per cent of co-operative banks elected boards were under suppression as on March 2006.

In such a situation, target based approach would at best help achieve volume targets; but unless the activities financed remains profitable, the lenders would eventually face high credit risk. Its here the differences between different approaches are apparent.

The Raghuram Rajan committee through it recommendations try to make small lending attractive and lenders would take credit risk according to their respective appetite. While RS committees following target-based approach, leave little discretion in choosing projects/borrowers. Even within the class of financially excluded, borrowers would be different in terms of individual capabilities, products, markets etc. It would be necessary to have flexibility & freedom to choose different ways of approaching clients and design structures that would minimize risks associated with lending. This would ensure that lender would be selective and feel involved in the lending process. Such a process may be slow but it could be built on experiences gathered and useful lessons are learned in the process and corrective measures are incorporated.

The success of the approach opted by the RS committees depends on the successful transformation of small producers to gainful economic activities. If institutional intervention does successfully facilitate this -say transformation of small dry land farmers into practitioners of viable farming - risks in finance would drop and render financing such activities very attractive to lenders. At this stage target based approach would not be necessary. But until then if institutional intervention remains limited to only providing funds at low interest rates it may not lead to financial inclusion, at least on a sustainable basis. 

References

Arunachalam, Ramesh S (2008): Scoping Paper on Financial Inclusion UNDP, India .

Cohen, M (2002): Making micro finance more client led Journal of International Development 14(3) 335-50.

Cull Robert, et al (2007): Financial Performance and Outreach; A Global Analysis of leading Micro banks Economic Journal Vol. 117 No. 517 pp. F107- F133

Matin, et al (2002): Finance for the Poor – from micro credit to Micro financial services Journal of International Development 14(2) pp. 273-294.

GOI (2008): Report of the Committee on Financial Inclusion available on NABARD web site

Herms N and R. Lensink (2007): The Empirics of Micro Finance: What do we Know? Economic Journal Vol. 117 No. 517 pp. F1- F10

Kempson E and Whylay C (1999): Kept Out or Opted Out? Understanding and Combating Financial Exclusion Polity Press , UK

Kempson E (2006): Policy level response to Financial Exclusion in Developed Economies; Lessons from Developing Countries Personal Finance Research Centre, University of Bristol .

Karlan Dean (2007): Social Connections and Group Banking, Economic Journal Vol. 117 No. 517 pp. F 52-F84 .

Ministry of Finance (2004): Draft Final Report Task Force on Revival of Co-operative Credit Institutions.

National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector (2007): Reports on Financing of Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector and Creation of a National Fund for Organised Sector (NAFUS).

Prahalad C.K.(2005): Fortune at the bottom of the Pyramid Wharton School Publishers, New Delhi .

Planning Commission, Government of India (2008): Draft Report on the Committee on Financial Sector Reform.

RBI (2007): Report of the Technical Group to review legislations on Money Lending.

Sharma Mandira (2008): Index of Financial Inclusion Working paper No. 215, ICRIER, New Delhi .

 

* This note is prepared by M.K.Datar, General Manager, IDBI Bank, Mumbai (mkdatar@gmail.com). The views are personal and not necessarily of the organisation with which the author works. 

[1]   The appropriateness of indicators used to measure availability & usage may be questioned but that is a different issue where indicators used are also guided by available data.

[2]   It also disapproves financial institutions not meeting the priority sector targets parking their funds with SIDBI or NABARD, but allows parking with NAFUS by entities that don't meet the targets set for funding small enterprises from unorganised sectors.

 

 

Highlights of  Current Economic Scene

AGRICULTURE  

Procurement of Rice

(In million tonnes)

States

Quantity

Punjab

7.89

Andhara Pradesh

6.68

Uttar Pradesh

2.84

Chhattisgarh

2.56

Orissa

2.31

Haryana

1.57

West Bengal

1.2

Source: Media

Agriculture Ministry's latest report on sowing data, displays that sowings of all crops barring paddy and soyabean have continued to trail the coverage levels achieved during the corresponding period last year. Acreage under paddy in the on-going kharif season has risen to 368.78 lakh hectares as against 350.32 lakh hectares during the same period last year. It is expected that this would exceed the production to 84 million tonnes over and above the all-time-high kharif output of 82.81 million tonnes achieved in 2007. The coverage under pulses has decreased drastically to 101.77 lakh hectares as against 120.57 lakh hectares a year ago; this decline has been recorded due to extended dry spell across the south peninsula regions. The sown area under oilseed has increased marginally to 176.5 lakh hectares, compared to 173.05 lakh hectares a year ago. Among oilseeds, soyabean is the only crop, which has witness an increase to 95.63 lakh hectares as against 87.28 lakh hectares last year. Area covered under soyabean has displayed significant increase and that has made up for the shortage in the sown acreages of other oilseeds.

Procurement of Foodgrains

(in million tonnes)

Year

Wheat

Rice

Total

2002

19

21.2

40.2

2003

15.8

15.8

31.6

2004

16.8

22.9

39.7

2005

14.79

24.5

39.29

2006

9.2

27.6

36.8

2007

11.13

25.1

36.23

2008

22.54

27.3*

49.84

*Procurement still in progress

Source: Media

Food Corporation of India (FCI) has managed to create history with a record purchase of nearly 50 million tonnes of wheat and rice this year. Surge in grain procurement by 38 per cent to 50 million tonnes over the last year has mainly been due to a sharp rise in wheat purchase. Even rice procurement has increased to an all-time high level of 27.3 million tonnes. Surplus grain stock would bring stable prices in the open market and allow the government to intervene if prices rise. Alok Sinha, chairman and managing director of FCI, has revealed that procurement of rice would touch an all-time high of 27.7 million tonnes by the end of current marketing season i.e. September 30, 2008. These quantum jump recorded in the procurement are due to unprecedented hike in minimum support price (MSP) of both grains.

The government of Andhra Pradesh (AP) has decided to impose restrictions on stocks of paddy (de-husked) and levy free rice movement outside the state, it is the first state to impose stock limit on paddy. It has insisted that 50 per cent of levy-free rice to be sold within the state and the remaining half to be allowed to export to other states. It is in the ratio of 1:1/2:1/2 i.e., if one unit of rice is delivered as levy, then half of it is allowed to be sold with in the state, with the remaining half being eligible for export to other states. This measure is expected to improve supply of rice within the state and control rising prices of the commodity. Rice mill having a 0.5-tonne capacity per hour can stock 1,800 tonnes of rice and mills having 5-tonnes capacity per hour can stock 25,200 tonnes in the period of six months, this is the maximum paddy stock that can be held by the miller in the state.

To bridge the gap between rising domestic demand and supply of pulses, India is likely to import 3 million tonnes of pulses in the financial year 2009, 11.1 per cent more than a year earlier. It is estimated that government agencies would import nearly 1.5 million tonnes of pulses, while private players are likely to import same amount of pulses. Prices of pulses like tur, gram, urad and moong have augmented by 15 per cent since last three months due to drop in sown acreage and rising global prices.

Bacillus thurengiensis (Bt) brinjal is all set to go commercial from the next sowing season, with the completion of its trial runs. After the launch, Bt brinjal would become the first edible product in the country to be grown using genetically modified (GM) seeds.

Maize prices are expected to remain firm in the new season beginning from October even after Kosi floods have devastated the largest maize growing area in state of Bihar . The kharif maize crop is likely to decrease by about 10 per cent from last year’s level of 15.15 million tonnes due to floods Bihar .

The Directorate of sugar has instructed sugar mills to sell 2.75 million tonnes of the commodity from the buffer stock by September 30, 2008. If sugar mills fail to sale it to the open market, then unsold quantities would be converted to levy sugar, which has lower price realisation. Sugar mills have been asked to submit all the reports regarding the sale of sugar from the buffer stock by the end of September and first week of October.

Supreme Court in its interim order as on September 8, 2008 has asked state-owned and the private sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh to pay the cane farmers price of Rs 110 per quintal for the current season.

Union Agriculture and Food Minister has reiterated that the central government would not extend export freight assistance provided to sugar mills, of Rs 1,350 per tonne for coastal mills and Rs 1,450 per tonnes for non-coastal mills, beyond September, as it is scheduled to end on September 30, 2008 and enough sugar have been exported out of the country. the assistance had been provided to help the industry, which was facing a huge set-back due to record output that induced 35-40 per cent decline in sugar prices generating substantial losses.

Sugar mills have threatened to stop manufacturing of ethanol and have diverted molasses to liquor manufacturers due to unwillingness of government to raise the ethanol procurement price. Sugar mills produce around 260 litres of ethanol from each tonne of molasses, depending on the technology utilised. Substantial amount of molasses supplied to alcohol manufactures, procure higher price nearly around Rs 6000 per tonne. At an estimated 10 per cent recovery average, India is likely to crush about 220 million tonnes of cane this sugar year to produce 22 million tonnes of sugar and 228.8 million tonnes of molasses. The country needs around 60 crore litres of ethanol per year for three years to meet the 5 per cent blending norm. If this is increased to 10 per cent, the country would need 120 crore litres of ethanol.

Cotton output of country is set to dip for the first time in six years, even as the textile ministry stated that crop size is expected to go up marginally. Experts opine that actual production of cotton would be below 30 million bales (1 bale = 170 kg) due to immature flowering. The last fall in cotton output had occurred in 2002-03 when the country had produced 13.6 million bales, as compared with 15.8 million bales in the previous year. According to officials of Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), inadequacy in rains recorded in the major cotton-growing regions of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh would play have adverse impact on final output. Moreover, the acreage under cotton has reduced to 9 million hectares as against 9.55 million hectares last year. This would result in stunted growth and impact the output of the plants.

According to National Horticultural Research and Development (NHRDF) output of onion in India is expected to slid down by 30 per cent to 1.19 million tonnes in the 2008-09 kharif season, owing to drop in acreage by 40 per cent and scanty rains in the main areas of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhara Pradesh and Karnataka during the period of June- July, when most of the crops get cultivated. The area under crop has risen marginally in Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab . It is predicted that acreage under onion would increase by 15 per cent in the rabi season due to attractive prices.

Export of spices during April-July 2008

Item

2007

2008

Quantity (in tonnes)

Value      (in Rs)

Quantity (in tonnes)

Value      (in Rs)

Pepper

12,050

173.17

9,500

160.55

Chilli

75,525

416.8

80,500

413.17

Turmeric

19,400

58.9

20,750

90.27

Coriander

9,085

33.2

12,500

81.86

Cumin

5,600

57.59

17,750

174.69

Others

39,917

785.8

44,255

914.74

Total

1,61,577

1525.46

1,85,255

1835.28

Source: Media

According to Spices Board, exports of spices during April-July this year has increased by 15 per cent, estimated at 185,255 tonnes valued Rs 1835.29 crore ($437.10 million), as against 161,577 tonnes worth Rs 1,525.47 crore ($372.42 million) in the corresponding period of last year. Total export income has increased by 20 per cent in value terms (in dollar terms, the increase was 17 per cent). Spice oils and oleoresins, including mint products, have contributed 38 per cent of the total export earnings. Chilli has accounted for 23 per cent followed by cumin (10 per cent), pepper (9 per cent) and turmeric (5 per cent), respectively. In the four-month period, exports of all major spices have shown an increasing trend in terms of both quantity and value, as compared with the same period last year. However, spices such as pepper, ginger, nutmeg, mace and mint products have shown a decreasing trend. In case of export of celery and other miscellaneous spices, the increase is in value terms only. The export of value-added products such as curry powder and spice oils & oleoresins have shown substantial increase in both quantity and value compared to last year.

 

Natural Rubber Estimates for (Apr-Aug 2008-09)

 (in tonnes)

Year

2007-08

2008-09

Per cent growth

Production

2,44,070

3,12,565

28.1

Consumption

3,47,915

3,71,460

6.8

Import

35154

26508

-24.5

Export

16232

26704

65

Source: Media

As per the data revealed by Kottayam -based Rubber Board, export of natural rubber (NR) has increased massively by 65 per cent during April-August, 2008-09, at a total shipment of 26,704 tonnes, compared to 16,232 tonnes during the same period last year. The board has estimated that total stock of rubber at 108,600 tonnes by the end of August 2008 against 82,607 tonnes in August 2007. The growth in consumption of natural rubber is recorded to be at 6.8 per cent to 371,460 tonnes in April-August period of 2008-09 as against 347,915 tonnes last year. The rate of slowdown of the import of natural rubber has strengthened further to 24.5 per cent at 26,508 tonnes against a decrease of 16 per cent during the April–July period. The import of natural rubber dropped by 8,646 tonnes from 35,154 tonnes in April-August period of 2007-08. The production has recorded an increase of 28.1 per cent at 312,565 tonnes against a total production of 244,070 tonnes in April-August period of the previous financial year. The average price tag of RSS-4 grade has gone up to Rs 120 per kg during the five-month period.

 

According to a National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India Limited (NAFED), exports of onion have increased by 86 per cent during April-August 2008-09 to 710,000 tonnes as against 380,000 tonnes in the corresponding period last year, owing to fall in domestic prices and lowering of the minimum export prices (MEP). Even some are of the view that good quality of onions and better storage facilities have been some of the reasons for the rise in exports Onion exports from south India are sent mainly to Sri Lanka , Malaysia and Singapore , while shipments from Nasik are sent exclusively to the Gulf countries. Wholesale price of onion during the first week of September in the major producing regions of Lasalgaon in Maharashtra has stood at Rs 660 (US$ 14.64) as compared to Rs 831 (US$ 18.44) a month earlier. Retail prices of onion are reported to be scheduled between Rs 6 per kg (US$ 0.13) to Rs 16.50 (US$ 0.37) per kg in different parts of the country.

 Industrial Production

The General Index stands at 273.0, which is 7.1% higher as compared to the level in the month of July 2007. The cumulative growth for the period April-July 2008-09 stands at 5.7% over the corresponding period of the pervious year.

Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors for the month of July 2008 stand at 164.9, 293.3, and 225.9 respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of 5.0%, 7.5% and 4.5% as compared to July 2007. The cumulative growth during April-July, 2008-09 over the corresponding period of 2007-08 in the three sectors have been 4.5%, 6.1% and 2.6% respectively, which moved the overall growth in the General Index to 5.7%.

Ten  out of the seventeen  industry groups (as per 2-digit NIC-1987) have shown positive growth during the month of July 2008 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. The industry group ‘Beverages, Tobacco and Related Products’ have shown the highest growth of 28.6%, followed by 18.7% in ‘Transport Equipment and Parts’ and 16.0% in ‘Machinery and Equipment other than Transport Equipment’.  On the other hand, the industry group ‘Wool, Silk and Man-made Fibre Textiles’ have shown a negative growth of 9.2% followed by 9.1% in ‘Wood and Wood Product: Furniture and Fixtures’ and 4.9% in ‘Leather and Leather & Fur Products‘.

Sectoral growth rates in July 2008 over July 2007 are 5.9% in Basic goods, 21.9% in Capital goods and 1.6% in Intermediate goods. The Consumer durables and Consumer non-durables have recorded growth of 11.2% and 6.1% respectively, with the overall growth in Consumer goods being 7.3%.

Infrastructure

The Index of Six core-infrastructure industries having a combined weight of 26.7 per cent in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with base 1993-94 stood at 240.1 in July 2008 and registered a growth of 4.3 per cent compared to a growth of 7.2 per cent in July 2007. During April-July 2008-09, six core-infrastructure industries registered a growth of 3.7 per cent as against 6.6 per cent during the corresponding period of the previous year. 

Crude Oil production (weight of 4.17 per cent in the IIP) registered a negative growth of 3.0 per cent in July 2008 compared to a growth rate of 0.9 per cent in July 2007. The Crude Oil production registered a growth of (-) 0.9 per cent during April-July 2008-09 compared to (–) 0.3 per cent during the same period of 2007-08.

Petroleum refinery production (weight of 2.00 per cent in the IIP) registered a growth of 11.8 per cent in July 2008 compared to growth of 4.7 per cent in July 2007. The Petroleum refinery production registered a growth of 5.4 per cent during April-July 2008-09 compared to 11.0 per cent during the same period of 2007-08.

Coal production (weight of 3.2 per cent in the IIP) registered a growth of 5.5 per cent in July 2008 compared to growth rate of 1.1 per cent in July 2007. Coal production grew by 7.7 per cent during April-July 2008-09 compared to an increase of 0.8 per cent during the same period of 2007-08.

Electricity generation (weight of 10.17 per cent in the IIP) registered a growth of 4.5 per cent in July 2008 compared to a growth rate of 7.5 per cent in July 2007. Electricity generation grew by 2.6 per cent during April-July 2008-09 compared to 8.1 per cent during the same period of 2007-08.

Cement production (weight of 1.99 per cent in the IIP) registered a growth of 8.8 per cent in July 2008 compared to 9.4 per cent in July 2007. Cement Production grew by 6.5 per cent during April-July 2008-09 compared to an increase of 7.7 per cent during the same period of 2007-08.

Finished (carbon) Steel production (weight of 5.13 per cent in the IIP) registered a growth of 1.9 per cent in July 2008 compared to 10.8 per cent (estimated) in July 2007. Finished (carbon) Steel production grew by 3.8 per cent during April-July 2008-09 compared to an increase of 6.8 per cent during the same period of 2007-08.

 

Inflation

The official Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for 'All Commodities' (Base: 1993-94 = 100) for the week ended 30th August 2008 rose by 0.2 per cent to 240.8 from 240.3 for the previous week.

The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 12.10 per cent for the week ended 30/08/2008 (over 01/09/2007) as compared to 12.34 per cent for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation stood at 3.72 per cent as on 01/09/2007 i.e. a year ago.

The index for Primary Articles group rose by 0.3 per cent to 249.2 from 248.5 for the previous week. The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, for ‘Primary Articles’ stood at 10.07 per cent for the week ended 30/08/2008. It was 8.07 per cent as on 01/09/2007 i.e. a year ago.  

The index for 'Food Articles' group rose by 0.2 per cent to 237.3 from 236.9 for the previous week due to higher prices of bajra (3 per cent), urad and arhar (2 per cent each) and jowar and fruits & vegetables (1 per cent each). However, the prices of maize and condiments & spices (1 per cent each) declined. The annual rate of inflation for ‘Food Articles’ stood at 4.58 per cent for the week ended 30/08/2008. It was 7.08 per cent as on 01/09/2007 i.e. a year ago.

The index for 'Non-Food Articles' group rose by 0.3 per cent to 247.1 from 246.3 for the previous week due to higher prices of cotton seed and raw rubber (2 per cent each) and raw cotton (1 per cent). 

The index for 'Minerals' group rose by 1.4 per cent to 656.0 from 646.7 for the previous week due to higher prices of iron ore (2 per cent).

The index for Fuel, Power, Light and Lubricants group remained unchanged at its previous week's level of 376.2 . 

The index for the major group, Manufactured Products, rose by 0.3 per cent to 207.7 from 207.1 for the previous week. The groups and items for which the index showed variations during the week are as follows:-

The index for 'Food Products' group rose by 1.3 per cent to 215.7 from 213.0 for the previous week due to higher prices of salt (5 per cent), khandsari, sugar and oilcakes (3 per cent each) and groundnut oil (1 per cent). However, the prices of imported edible oil (4 per cent) and gingelly oil (1 per cent) declined.

The index for 'Textiles' group rose by 0.1 per cent to 144.3 from 144.2 for the previous week due to higher prices of tyre cord fabric (14 per cent), mixed fabrics and cotton grey cloth & canvas (7 per cent each) and hessian & sacking bags (2 per cent). However, the prices of synthetic yarn (1 per cent) declined. 

The index for 'Chemicals & Chemical Products' group rose marginally to 223.3 from 223.2 for the previous week due to higher prices of acid (all kinds) (1 per cent). However, the prices of powder/granules other than vitamins (6 per cent) and bopp film (3 per cent) declined.

The index for 'Non-Metallic Mineral Products' group rose by 0.4 per cent to 216.9 from 216.1 for the previous week due to higher prices of cement (1 per cent).

For the week ended 05/07/2008, the final wholesale price index for 'All Commodities’ (Base: 1993-94=100) stood at 239.3 as compared to 238.7 and annual rate of inflation based on final index, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 12.19 per cent as compared to 11.91 per cent reported earlier vide press note dated 18/07/2008.

Banking

With a view to liberalise advance remittances for import of services, RBI has decided to raise the limit of advance remittance for all admissible current account transactions for import of services without bank guarantee from $100,000 to $500,000 or its equivalent. Where the amount of advance exceeds $500,000 or its equivalent, a guarantee from a bank of international repute situated outside India , or a guarantee from a bank in India , if such a guarantee is issued against the counter-guarantee of a bank of international repute situated outside India , should be obtained from the overseas beneficiary.

“Industrial Development Bank of India ” has been changed to “IDBI Bank Limited” in the second schedule to the RBI Act, 1934 with effect from May 7, 2008, published in the Gazette of India (Part III Section 4) dated June 14, 2008.

For the first time, housing finance regulator, National Housing Bank (NHB) will raise money through fixed deposits from retail investors.

The banking division of the ministry of finance is working on relaxing group exposure norms for big corporates. The current norms restrict the commercial banks to expand their exposure to any corporate group, as it prescribes limits on such funding. The current credit exposure ceiling is 15 per cent of the bank’s net worth in the case of a single borrower and 40 per cent of capital funds in the case of a borrower group. The issue has also been taken up by a sub-committee of a group of ministers, which would give its report soon.

The RBI in its approach paper on its website has suggested that no charges to be levied for inward RTGS/NEFT/ECS transactions. The central bank has asked public comments on the issue of charges to be levied by banks for outstation cheque collection and electronic payment products. On outward RTGS transactions between Rs 1 lakh and 5 lakh, the RBI is now considering charges levied should not exceed Rs 25 per transaction.

The RBI has cancelled the licence of Maharashtra-based Dyanopasak Urban Co-operative Bank Ltd, Parbhani and declared it insolvent. The decision was taken last month after examining all the options for revival in close consultation with the Government of Maharashtra.

 

Financial Market

Capital Markets

Primary Market

According to Nexgen Capitals, the merchant-banking arm of brokerage firm SMC Global Securities, the recent slowdown in the primary market has influenced not only investors but merchant bankers as well, with a significant decline of nearly 60 per cent in their percentage fees so far this year. As per its latest report, there is a drop in merchant-banking fees to Rs 216 crore in comparison with Rs 771 crore in 2007, indicating a drop of 57.9 per cent annually. The average percentage fees have declined 1.21 per cent so far this year from 2.24 per cent in 2007.

Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has proposed that in a rights share issue, the registrar will credit the rights entitlement (RE) in the given ratio into the demat accounts of eligible shareholders. Following this, the rights issue would open for subscription and renunciation/trading of RE electronically through the stock-exchange platform. This proposal is part of a paper on the proposed procedure for rights issue for electronic trading of rights entitlement, issued by the regulator on September 11,2008.

On September 09, 2008, SEBI said that the reduced 60-day timeline for allotment of shares in rights issues would be introduced from the last week of September. To make the rights issue process more efficient, SEBI is also examining the possibilities of introducing a system where corporates will be required to send rights issue entitlement in the demat form. SEBI also proposed to introduce electronic trading (e-trading) in rights issues, a move that will help people with demat accounts to buy and renounce the rights entitlements on electronic platform. Under the proposed format, "shareholders, who do not want to exercise their RE, can renounce their REs by selling them on the e-trading platform of stock exchanges.

The IPO of 20 Microns, the first company whose IPO falls under SEBI’s Applications Supported by Blocked Amount (ASBA) process, has been subscribed 4.29 times. The issue had opened for subscription on September 8 and closed on September 11. It received 1.8 crore bids against the 43.5 lakh equity shares on offer. The portion reserved for the qualified institutional buyers (QIB) has been subscribed 0.9 times, while the portion reserved for the non-institutional investors (NII) has been subscribed 1.97 times and retail portion by 10.58 times.

Adani Power Ltd – an Adani Enterprises company - has received SEBI approval for the proposed Rs 5,630-crore IPO. According to sources, the company is aiming to open the issue preferably in mid-November.

On September 08, 2008, Chemcel Biotech Ltd, a company engaged in the business of agro-chemicals, announced that it would be entering the capital market with an IPO of 1.54 lakh equity shares of Rs 10 each at a premium of Rs 6 a share. The issue will open for subscription from September 9 to September 12. The net public issue would comprise 49.39 per cent of the post issue paid-up capital of the company and the net issue to the public would be 1.28 lakh equity shares. The company plans to raise Rs 24.6 crore from the issue.

 

Secondary Market

After starting the week on a positive note on account of the NSG waiver and bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the markets lost ground throughout the week on weak global cues. The key indices surged on the first day of the week on positive news on the Indo-US nuclear deal. But weakness in the US market hit investor sentiments as the week proceeded. The sentiments were so weak that a steep slide in crude oil and a softening of domestic inflation for a third consecutive week were unable to arrest the decline. The 45-nations Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) on 6 September 2008 lifted a 34-year-old embargo on nuclear trade with India . The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex shed 483 points or 3.33 per cent to 14,000.81 in the week ended Friday, 12 September 2008. The BSE Mid-cap index declined 217 points or 3.76 per cent to 5,537. The BSE Small-cap index slipped 193.68 points or 2.80 per cent to 6,712. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty fell 124 points or 2.84 per cent to 4228. The Defty lost 4.94 per cent as the rupee slid sharply.

The BSE metal index closed at a 52-week low mainly due to the decline in metal prices globally during the week. The index declined by 7.7 per cent as compared with the 3.3 per cent fall in BSE Sensex. Since September 5, 2008, the metal index has shed 904 points to close on 10,881. In the domestic market, steel stocks fell after the steel ministry recommended a 5 per cent duty on iron ore exports in addition to the present 15 per cent to control the domestic prices of steel.

According to the Life Insurance Council, an apex organization of all life insurance companies in India , the insurance industry emerged as the largest investor in the stock market during 2007-08, surpassing foreign institutional investors (FIIs), riding on the huge popularity of unit-linked insurance products (ULIPs). The net investment by life insurance companies in equity markets during 2007-08 has been Rs 55,000 crore against an investment of Rs 53,400 crore made by FIIs. The investment by mutual funds in the same period has been estimated at Rs 16,300 crore. The council said the life insurance industry had assets under management worth Rs 8,47,000 crore as of March 31, 2008.

According to SB Mathur, secretary general of Life Insurance Council, an association of all life insurance companies constituted by the Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority (Irda) in the country, the investment by the insurance industry in the stock market, in the first four months of this financial year, has been about Rs 25,000 crore.  

The life insurance industry, including the Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), had Rs 8,47,000 crore worth of assets under management (AUM) as of March 2008. The council also said that the net investment by life insurance companies in the equity markets during 2007-08 was Rs 55,000 crore, against an investment of Rs 53,400 crore by FIIs. The investment by mutual funds in the same period was estimated at Rs 16,300 crore.

Both inflows and redemptions in equity mutual fund schemes have fallen sharply in the last few months. Between March and July, investors have redeemed their units to the tune of Rs 18,401 crore, while inflows were at Rs 25,346 crore. According to data compiled by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi), the inflow numbers have been falling consistently since January, when they stood at Rs 12,717 crore. In July, it fell to a mere Rs 2,538 crore. Now, the preferred route of investment seems to be income funds. In July, they garnered Rs 8,640 crore. Redemptions have also seen a sharp fall. While in March they were at Rs 5,660 crore, in July, they dipped to Rs 2,483 crore.

According to a survey conducted by Indian Institutes of Management (IIMs) data works on mutual fund retail sales and distribution practices, the recent reforms measures by the SEBI to make fund products more easily accessible to the common man has had a significantly adverse impact on fund product sales by agents. 33 per cent of independent financial advisors (IFAs) have admitted to a significant impact of the zero load on their business volumes. An interesting finding of the survey is that individual agents are planning to form a ‘chain’ sales channel. A chain channel means organising themselves into a ‘union’ of sorts to increase their bargaining power with asset management companies (AMCs). More than 80 agents in super metros see their future in the chain sales channel. The IFA survey also shows that expensive brand and product advertising by companies is having some impact, but not to the extent of growing mutual fund customer base to mass-market size.

The 31 per cent fall in global crude oil prices since July 11 has already contributed to the recent rise in domestic equity market, and fund managers expect the recovery to continue if oil prices slip below $100 a barrel. According to a fund manager at a bank-sponsored fund house, if crude oil falls further to $100 a barrel, market would move up by a minimum of 500-1000 points. Fall in crude oil is one of the factors for the market to rally, but there are many other variables too.

Gujarat NRE Coke Ltd proposes to issue shares with differential voting rights to its existing shareholders, for which its board will meet on September 17 to consider the proposal. In an announcement to the stock exchanges on Wednesday, the company said it proposed to issue one share with higher voting rights for every 300 equity shares at Rs 1,000 a share, including a premium of Rs 990. The proceeds of this rights issue would be used to part-finance the green-field coke oven plant being set up in Andhra Pradesh.

Banks have got three more months till December 13 for complying with the Reserve Bank's direction to treat advances given to equity-oriented mutual funds as capital market exposure. By then, banks would also have to comply with the norms that consider payment commitments made by them to stock exchanges to facilitate transactions by mutual funds within the limit of their capital market exposure.

Derivatives

Despite a promising opening, the Nifty September future finished precariously low at 4245.8, registering a fall of 2.4 per cent over the previous week’s close. However, Nifty September future’s premium over the spot widened further, and closed at over 17 points as against the seven-point premium seen last week. The September Nifty, Bank Nifty and CNXIT futures settled at premium to underlyings. All three saw rising OI in the September index futures. In Nifty options, the impact of the bearishness is clearly evident from the put-call ratios (PCR). The overall PCR (in terms of OI) is at 0.94 while the PCR for September is at 0.74. Both ratios are low and bearish – in fact, the September ratio is extremely low. Future and options (F&O) volumes climbed in a falling market, but oddly enough, open interest (OI) also rose, especially in index instruments. Higher OI and higher volumes in a falling market can be read as a situation where long traders switched to short positions instead of exiting. The FIIs did take the exit option. FII OI dropped to around 35 per cent, which is about 5 per cent lower than normal exposure.

The cumulative FII positions as a percentage of total gross market position on the derivative segment, as on September 4 was 35.36 per cent. This once again points at the high level participation of local traders, particularly the proprietary segment. Foreign institutional investors resorted to heavy selling on Thursday and Friday. They now hold index futures worth Rs 13,378.69 crore (Rs 12,636.83 crore) and stock futures worth Rs 20,478.61 crore (Rs 19,077.47 crore). Their holding on index options stood higher at Rs 22,544.75 crore (Rs 22,093.13 crore).

 

Government Securities Market

Primary Market

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has set rate of interest for floating rate bonds maturing in 2013 at 9.77 per cent per annum on September 8, 2008. The rate of interest is applicable from September 10, 2008 to September 9, 2009.

West Bengal State Government auctioned 10-year paper maturing in 2018 through an yield based auction using multiple price auction method on September 9, 2008 for the notified amounts of Rs 1, 800 crore with cut-off yield of 8.80 per cent.

On September 10, 2008, RBI auctioned 91-day and 364-day T-bills for the notified amounts of Rs.5,000 crore and Rs.4,000 crore, respectively. The cut-off yields for 91-day and 364-day T-bills were 8.73 per cent and 8.86 per cent, respectively.    

RBI re-issued of 8.24 per cent 2018 and 7.95 per cent 2036 for the notified amount of Rs.5,000 crore and Rs.3,000 crore, on September 12, 2008 at the cut-off yields of 8.30 per cent and 8.70 per cent, respectively.

Secondary Market

Inter bank call rates ruled in the range of 8.13-8.88 per cent during the week. Call rates

dropped on September 12, which is the reporting Friday, due to lack of demand from borrowing banks coupled with ample liquidity in the banking system. However, government bond prices showed a mixed trading due to alternate bouts of buying and selling. The yield on the 10-year benchmark paper declined from 8.49 per cent on September 5 to 8.36 per cent on September 12, partly reflecting a rally last week on account of comfortable liquidity and lower inflation figures. The 8.33 per cent government security maturing in 2036 firmed up to Rs 95.95 from Rs 94.95 previously while its yield moved down to 8.72 per cent from 8.82 per cent. RBI purchased central government bonds from secondary market during the week and sold them to state governments to help them replenish their stock of gilts that expired last month.

A state government official said that the amount held in the (Consolidated Sinking) fund Sis invested in government securities as it earns a better return. Since there has been redemption of bonds last month, the RBI reinvested the money in other bonds on the behalf of the state. A part of the state governments’ surpluses are kept in Consolidated Sinking Fund, which is operated by the RBI.

Bonds continued their upward momentum, powered by large purchases by banks for meeting their reserve requirements. The sharp fall in global oil prices partially caused bond yields to soften. The liquidity squeeze in the markets somewhat eased during the week stemming from large deposit mop-up from corporates through certificates of deposits. The easing has been evident from the low recourse to the repurchase window at the weekend liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) auctions. The combined recourse to the repo window from five banks was Rs 12,215 crore. At least five banks took to the reverse repo window at the auctions.

Trade volumes remained high, averaging Rs 8,700 crore per day. Spreads remained narrow at just five basis points. Traders’ outlook remained uncertain which was evident from the almost flat yield curve. Between one year and 27 years, the yield spread was inverted. The 27-year was lower than the one-year by 8 basis points.

On September 11, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has suggested that no charges to be levied for inward Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS)/National Electronic Funds Transfer (NEFT)/ Electronic Clearing Service (ECS) transactions. The central bank has asked for public comments on the issue of charges to be levied by banks for outstation cheque collection and electronic payment products. On outward RTGS transactions between Rs 1 lakh and 5 lakh, the RBI is now considering charges levied should not exceed Rs 25 per transaction. For RTGS transactions for Rs 5 lakh and above, charges levied will not exceed Rs 50 per transaction. On outward NEFT transaction, up to Rs 1 lakh, charges levied will not exceed Rs 5 per transaction, while for NEFT transactions for Rs 1 lakh and above; charges levied will not exceed Rs 25 per transaction.

Bond Market

During the week under review, four banks/ financial institutions and one PSU have tapped the market by issuance of bonds by mobilising Rs 3,235 crore.

Table 1: Profile of Major Commercial Bond Issues for the week ending

 September 12, 2008.

Sr

Issuing Company / Rating

Nature of instrument

Coupon in per cent per annum and tenor

Amount in Rs. crore

 No

 

FIs / Banks

 

 

 

1

Indian Overseas Bank
AA+ and AA by Crisil, Icra

Upper Tier II Bonds

11.05 per cent for 15 years and call at the end of 10th year.

500

2

 

Punjab & Sind Bank Ltd
AA by Icra, Care

Lower Tier II Bonds

11.05 per cent for 10 years and 7 months.

400

3

Union Bank of India
AA+ by Crisil, Fitch

Lower Tier II Bonds

10.95 per cent for 10 years.

300

4

Indian Railway Finance Corp Ltd (PSU)
AAA by Crisil, Care

 Bonds

10.60 per cent and 10.70 per cent for 10 years and 15 years, respectively

1470

5

Housing Development Finance Corp Ltd
AAA by Crisil, Icra

Bonds

11.65 per cent for 2 years.

565

 

 

 

Total

3235

 

Source: Various Media Sources

 

The SEBI is working on a slew of measures to revive the corporate debt market, which include introducing the book-building process for bond issues similar to the one prevalent in the equity market and simplifying various other procedures. Corporate bonds have not been able to generate interest among retail investors even after the capital market regulator announced many measures in the recent past to activate the market.

 

Foreign Exchange Market

The rupee declined sharply for the fifth week in a row and fell by 18 paise to close at a fresh 23-month low of Rs 45.75/76 against the dollar, on September 12 as banks continued to buy the greenback amid regular capital outflows. The rupee has lost 111 paise, or 2.5 per cent over the week to close near the 46-level for the first time since October 10, 2006. Large scale selling by FIIs also pushed down the rupee-dollar exchange rate. Forward premia for three days and one month firmed to 7.87 per cent (0.27 per cent) and 4.19 per cent (2.16 per cent).

The local currency hit a two-year low on the back of concerns over a widening current account deficit because of a huge demand for dollars from importers and because of capital outflow. The dollar has advanced against 16 major global currencies in the past three months, leading to a decline in commodity prices. India ’s foreign currency reserves have fallen in 10 of the 14 weeks starting June, indicating that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been selling dollars to slow the pace of the rupee’s rapid depreciation.

 

Currency Futures

On September 9, 2008, NSE said that it would launch interest rate futures and currency futures in four more currencies as soon as the regulator gives it the permission.

Even as currency futures are struggling to gain volumes, there was some improvement in hedging on September 12, with the OI crossing the number of traded contracts September 5. The OI surpassed traded volumes for the first time last week after the launch of currency futures on the NSE. On Friday, 40,689 contracts were traded, each valuing $1,000, while the OI was 44,550. This is the highest-ever OI since the launch of currency futures. In the last four trading sessions, the OI has nearly doubled to 44,550 from 23,402 on September 9. The daily average volume of currency futures is still around Rs 200 crore, which is much lower compared with those of forward contracts traded on the over-the-counter (OTC) market. One of the reasons for lower volumes is high margins, according to market experts.

 

Commodities Futures derivatives

Leading agri-commodity bourse National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) launched futures trading in thermal coal on September 10. The exchange said that it would initially launch October, November and December contracts and subsequent contracts would be launched next year. Trading and delivery units are fixed at 100 tonnes each, and the main delivery centre would be in Nagpur , Maharastra. Daily price fluctuation limit is set at 6 per cent.

Realising the importance of the international commodity market, the government has recently set up a cell under the department of consumer affairs to monitor developments relating to prices and general inflationary trends in the international markets. The department has hired the services of news agency Reuters to gather data related to international freight charges, commodity prices and the demand-supply situation on a regular basis. This will facilitate the government in planning imports of commodities like pulses and edible oil.

Country's third largest commodity bourse National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE) has relaunched futures trading in coffee, especially robusta variety, on September 09,2008. Initially, the exchange launched November and December contracts.

Forward Markets Commission (FMC) on September 15 said companies like Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group and Kotak Mahindra will have to wait before entering the commodity bourse arena as the regulator is still working on preventing conflict of interest that may arise from brokers turning exchange promoters.

James B Rogers, American investor and financial commentator is in a view that, trying to cut out speculators from the commodity futures trade will only decrease liquidity and will not halt a price rise as supply problems persist. According to him governments and politicians do not understand markets and they are making the situation worse by trying to impose controls on the markets. Commodity prices will go up whether governments impose controls or not as there is a serious supply-side problem. 

 

Insurance

Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group’s Reliance Life Insurance is infusing at least Rs 1,000 crore capital in the current financial year. The company has already a base of Rs 2,000 crore.

Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) and Infosys Technologies Ltd have announced the renewal of the group life insurance policy with a total sum of insurance of over Rs 24,000 crore. The policy, which covered each of the 97,000 employees of Infosys, was the highest cover offered by an insurance company, under a single employer-employee group life insurance policy in the country.

Corporate Sector

Major Mergers and Acquisition (M&A) Deals of Indian Pharmaceutical companies

Acquiring Company

Target Company

Deal Size ($ million)

Sun Pharma

Taro Pharma ( Israel )

454

Dr Reddy’s Laboratories

Betapharm ( Germany )

570

Wockhardt

Negma Labs ( France )

265

Glenmark

Medicamenta ( Czech Republic )

Undisclosed Amount

Aurobindo Pharma

Milpharm ( UK )

10

Source: The Financial Express, September 8, 2008

Reliance Industries has announced the incorporation of wholly-owned subsidiaries in two key global markets, namely, London and Singapore , in an effort to tap the emerging opportunities in global markets of petroleum products. Reliance Global Energy Service Ltd, London is headed by Peter Ward who was formerly the president of Shell Trading’s Gas and Power division. Reliance Global Energy Services Singapore Pte Ltd, Singapore is headed by Michael Ng.

 

Information Technology

Nasscom is starting a vocational training model at Indian Universities, beginning with Pune University . The model replicates the practices in like Germany and Brazil , which have set certain benchmarks in IT and BPO training. Germany and Brazil follow a dual-education system, in which a degree student simultaneously gets vocational training, largely funded by the government and supported by industry and chambers of commerce.

As per a latest report by Hay Group, the outsourcing industry in India is plaques by highest level of attrition at 23.5 per cent, which is about 7.8 percentage points higher than other industries.

Wipro Infotech unveiled its second manufacturing unit at Kotdwar in Uttarakhand. This state of the art facility shall manufacture servers, storage, notebooks, desktops and allied IT electronics.

Telecom

Bharti Airtel has tied-up with VISA to introduce finance scheme to help consumers buy the high priced cellphone. As per the partnership, Airtel would offer financing options for all VISA cardholders of ICICI, HDFC, SBI and Cititbank.

In a move that could halve SMS charges, the TRAI has asked mobile operators to slash tariffs voluntarily. Unlike the voice tariff, the cost component in SMS is negligible – around 2 paise. Still, SMS tariffs are either higher than voice rates or at best comparable. According to TRAI, while service providers have to pay termination charges and carriage costs for voice calls, no such cost is involved in SMS traffic, apart from negligible capital expenditure. For a telecoms company, around 14 per cent revenues comes from VAS, with SMS constituting, almost half of it.

BPL Mobile in a statement said that it issued around 17 per cent equity shares to a Mauritius-based company, owned by an international institutional fund investing in emerging markets. The company has raised about $80 million from this issue and the proceeds have been used for BPL Mobile’s expansion in Mumbai and its stake in Loop Telecom.

 

   

Macroeconomic Indicators

Table 1 : Index Numbers of Industrial Production (1993-94 =100)

Table 2 : Production in Infrastructure Industries (Physical Output Series)

Table 3: Procurment, Offtake and Stock of foodgrains

Table 4: Index Numbers of  Wholesale Prices (1993-94 = 100)

Table 5 : Cost of Living Indices

Table 6 : Budgetary Position of Government of India

Table 7 : Government Borrowing Programmes and Performance

Table 8 : Scheduled Commercial Banks - Business in India  

Table 9 : Money Stock : components and Sources

Table 10 : Reserve Money : Components and Sources

Table 11 : Average Daily Turnover in Call Money Market

Table 12 : Assistance Sanctioned and Disbursed by All-India Financial Institutions

Table 13 : Capital Market

Table 14 : Foreign Trade

Table 15 : India's Overall Balance of Payments

Table 16 : Foreign Investment Inflows  
Table 17 : Foreign Collaboration Approvals (Route-Wise)
Table 18 : Year-Wise (Route-Wise) Actual Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI/NRI)

Table 19 : NRI Deposits - Outstandings

Table 20 : Foreign Exchange Reserves

Table 21 : Indices REER and NEER of the Indian Rupee

Table 22 : Turnover in Foreign Exchange Market  
Table 23 : India's Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity [As reported under the IMFs special data dissemination standards (SDDS)
Table 24 : Settlement Volume and Netting Factor for Government Securities Transactions Settled at CCIL - Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Basis.
Table 25 : Inter-Catasegory Distribution of All Types of Trade in Government Securities Settled at CCIL (With Market Share in Respective Trade Types) 
Table 26 : Settlement Volume and Netting Factor for Total Forex Transactions Settled at CCIL - Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Basis.
Table 27 : Inter-Category Distribution of Total Foreign Exchange Transactions Settled at CCIL (With Market Share in Respective Trade Types) 

 

Memorandum Items

CSO's Quarterly Estimates of GDP  

GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity

India's Overall Balance of Payments: Quarterly

India's Overall Balance of Payments: Annual  

*These statistics and the accompanying review are a product arising from the work undertaken under the joint ICICI research centre.org-EPWRF Data Base Project.

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