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Current Economic Statistics and Review For the Week 
Ended February 11, 2006 (6th Weekly Report of 2006)

 

Theme of the week:

Trends in India’s Tax Revenue: 1990-91 to 2005-06 (BE) *

 

A dominant aspect of reforms under the structural adjustment  and stabilisation programmes initiated by the Indian government in 1991 has been the fiscal reform, which has taken varied forms. First, there was the explicit target  set for the reduction in gross fiscal deficit and revenue deficit. Second, such a fiscal consolidation was to be achieved through a series of measures to mobilise tax and non-tax resources, to tighten expenditure controls and to reduce and redirect subsidies. As explained in a subsequent section, while tax reforms have been undertaken quite persistently, the tightening of expenditure controls has left much to be desired.

As a result, the goals of deficit reductions could not be attained for almost a decade. Therefore, statutory limits have been prescribed for the first time on the gradual reductions of fiscal and revenue deficits under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Bill (FRBM) 2003. As shown in Table 1, the statutory limit has brought about considerable improvement in the deficit situation for the central as well as state governments. Thereby hangs an interesting tale of government effort to improve revenue mobilisation.    

Table 1: Measures of  the combined deficit of the central and state governments

Year

(Rs in Crore)

per cent to GDP

 

Gross Fiscal

Revenue

Primary

Gross Fiscal

Revenue

Primary

 

Deficit

deficit

deficit

deficit

deficit

deficit

1990-91

53580

23871

28585

9.4

4.2

5.0

1995-96

77671

37932

18598

6.5

3.2

1.6

2000-01

199852

138803

75035

9.6

6.6

3.6

2001-02

226425

159350

84039

10.0

7.0

3.7

2002-03

234987

162990

76363

9.5

6.6

3.1

2003-04

232852

159500

56282

8.4

5.8

2.0

2004-05 BE

245954

121261

55508

7.9

3.9

1.8

2004-05 RE

258082

128355

69543

8.3

4.1

2.2

2005-06 BE

267872

119806

59701

7.7

3.4

1.7

Note: Data in respect of the States are provisional from 2003-04 onwards and relate to 28 states.

          BE Budget Estimates, RE Revised Estimates.

Source: Annual Report (2004-05) Reserve Bank of India .

 

It is found that with the pressing demand for a series of government programmes under plan and non-plan heads and with the need for large expenditures on specially-committed liabilities, expenditure compression has not been possible. Amongst the revenue sources, non-tax revenues hardly have any built-in growth possibilities at any rate in the short run. In these circumstances, tax revenues have become the mainstay for the fiscal adjustment programme.

The note attempts to review the changes effected from time to time in the rates of taxation. Before doing so, an attempt is made to study the broad trends in tax-GDP ratio and the composition of different taxes in the total tax structure of the central government  as a backdrop to the details of tax revenues presented below:

 Trends in tax-GDP ratio

 It is found that for almost a decade up to 2001-02, the tax-GDP ratio of the central government had remained low and falling. It was 10 per cent in 1992-93 and fell to the lowest 8.2 per cent in 2001-02. Even the combined tax-GDP ratio for the centre and the states steadily declined from 15.3 per cent to 13.8 per cent during the same period. 

 

Table 2: Tax-GDP ratio

(per cent)

 

Centre (Gross Taxes)*

Centre and States Combined

Year

Direct

Indirect

Total

Direct

Indirect

Total

1992-1993

2.4

7.5

10.0

3.0

12.3

15.3

1993-1994

2.4

6.4

8.8

2.9

11.3

14.2

1994-1995

2.7

6.5

9.1

3.4

11.3

14.6

1995-1996

2.8

6.5

9.4

3.5

11.2

14.7

1996-1997

2.8

6.6

9.4

3.5

11.1

14.6

1997-1998

3.2

6.0

9.1

3.6

10.7

14.3

1998-1999

2.7

5.6

8.3

3.3

10.1

13.4

1999-2000

3.0

5.9

8.9

3.6

10.6

14.2

2000-2001

3.3

5.8

9.0

3.9

10.8

14.6

2001-2002

3.0

5.2

8.2

3.7

10.2

13.8

2002-2003

3.4

5.4

8.8

4.1

10.5

14.6

2003-2004

3.8

5.4

9.2

4.5

10.4

14.9

2004-2005 (RE)

4.3

5.5

9.9

5.0

10.8

15.8

2005-2006 (BE)#

5.0

5.4

10.5

-

-

-

Note: *  Excluding assignments of Union Territories ' taxes to local bodies. 

Source:  Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy (2004-05); # Central  Statistical

             Organisation  (CSO) (mospi.nic.in)(Press note dated February 7, 2006);

             Union Budget (2005-06).

 

Within the total taxes, a redeeming feature has been the gentle rise in the direct taxes to GDP ratio, while indirect tax to GDP ratio has been persistently declining. These trends have been in conformity with the policy goals under fiscal reforms.  A healthy tax structure is said to be one in which the share of direct taxes is higher and growing. Direct taxes achieve better distributional goals and do not impinge on cost of production of industries. On the other hand, high domestic indirect taxes were said to be tending  to escalate cost of production for the industry and making it non-competitive. Also, the notion of protection for the domestic industry through high tariffs had lost its relevance in the context of external sector liberalisation. As indicated below, substantial reductions have been effected in peak tariff rates, with the medium term goal of achieving parallel tax rates with the Asian rates.

 Despite adjustments in direct tax rates and sharp reductions in excise and custom duty rates, there have occurred some gradual improvements in recent years in both direct and indirect tax to GDP ratios as a result of improved economic activities. The total tax to GDP ratio is expected to touch to 10.5 per cent 2005-06. 

  Composition of Gross tax revenue

 Fiscal reforms have thus succeeded in altering the composition of gross tax revenue as per their medium term objectives. The share of direct taxes has risen in gross tax revenue, while that of indirect taxes has declined in the post-reform period. The share of direct taxes in gross tax revenue has increased from 23.7 per cent in 1992-93 to 43.8 per cent  in 2004-05 (RE) and is expected to further increase to 47.8 per cent in 2005-06 (BE). Correspondingly, indirect taxes, which had dominated the tax structure, have been giving way to direct taxes. Thus, the share of indirect taxes in gross tax revenue has fallen from 73.2 per cent  in 1992-93 to 55.9 per cent in 2004-05 (RE) and it may slip further to 51.9 per  cent in 2005-06 (BE).

 When disaggregated further, within direct taxes, it is the share of corporate taxes that has been growing at a faster pace than that of income tax on non-corporate assesses. The annual rate of growth of corporate taxations works out to 20.5 per cent and while that for personal income-tax works out to 17 per cent for the period 1992-93 to 2004-05. 

 

Table 3: Composition of tax revenue: Centre (Gross taxes)

(per cent to gross tax revenue)

Year

Corpora

Income

Direct

Customs

Union  

Service

Indirect

Other 

 

-tion Tax

Tax

Taxes

Duties

Excise

Tax

Taxes

Taxes

 

 

 

 

 

Duties

 

 

 

1992-1993

11.9

10.6

23.7

31.9

41.3

-

73.2

3.2

1993-1994

13.3

12.0

26.6

29.3

41.8

-

71.1

2.3

1994-1995

15.0

13.0

29.1

29.0

40.5

0.4

69.9

1.0

1995-1996

14.8

14.0

30.1

32.1

36.1

0.8

69.1

0.8

1996-1997

14.4

14.2

30.1

33.3

35.0

0.8

69.1

0.8

1997-1998

14.4

12.3

34.6

28.9

34.5

1.1

64.5

1.0

1998-1999

17.1

14.1

32.3

28.3

37.0

1.4

66.7

1.0

1999-2000

17.9

14.9

33.7

28.2

36.0

1.2

65.5

0.9

2000-2001

18.9

16.8

36.1

25.2

36.3

1.4

62.9

0.9

2001-2002

19.6

17.1

36.9

21.5

38.8

1.8

62.1

1.0

2002-2003

21.3

17.0

38.3

20.7

38.1

1.9

60.7

0.9

2003-2004

25.0

16.3

41.3

19.1

35.7

3.1

57.9

0.8

2004-2005 (RE)

27.1

16.6

43.8

18.4

32.9

4.6

55.9

0.3

2005-2006 (BE)

29.9

17.9

47.8

14.4

32.8

4.7

51.9

0.3

Source: Budget documents.

 

Likewise, within the indirect taxes structure, while both customs and union excise duties have been declining, the decline has been the steepest in custom duties. Union excise duties, which always enjoyed the status of producing the highest share in the Centre’s gross tax revenue, have also tended to loose in share, but remaining still the highest. Over the years corporate income tax has displaced customs duties to be the 2nd largest contributor to gross taxes;  even the share of income tax has exceeded the share of customs duties. With the services sector growing fast  and crossing 52 per cent of total GDP, the share of service tax is expected to grow in the coming years. It is a new tax which began in the mid-1990’s; it embraces about  81 types of service activities.  The share of service tax in gross tax revenue has increased gradually from  0.4 per cent for 1994-95 to 4.6 per cent in  2004-05 (RE)  and it is placed at 4.7  per cent in 2005-06 (BE) (Table 3).

 

Recent Evolution of Tax Rates at the Central Level (1991-92 to 2005-06)

 Income-tax

 With a view to reducing the tax burden  on the middle classes, for simplifying the taxation system, and for achieving better compliance, tax slabs have been altered and tax rates have been reduced. The most significant change has been the slashing of the marginal tax rate from 40 per cent to 30 per cent. An interesting development of great analytical significance has been the growth of 16 to 17 per cent per annum in revenue mobilization through income tax. There may have been better  tax compliance due to efforts made by the government towards that end. This is partly reflected in the number of returns filed which has shot up from 35.25 lakh in 1990-91 to 142.43 lakh in 1999-2000. But, a more significant development in this respect has been the shift of income-tax assesses in favour of high income brackets (Appendix III). For example, the proportion of assessees falling in the income brackets of Rs 5 lakh and above has increased from 0.2 per cent in 1990-91 to 1.0 per cent but their income assessed share has shot up from 3.4 per cent to 13.1 per cent; their share of tax payable has gone up still steeper, from 8.6 per cent to 33.5 per cent. A brief review of trend in tax rates during the past 14 years provides an insight  into  changes taking place in the composition of tax revenue (Annexure II).

Table 4: Income slabs for Income Tax

1992-93

2004-05

Range

Rate in per cent

Range

Rate in per cent

Upto Rs.28,000

Nil

Upto Rs.50,000

Nil

Rs.28,000-Rs.50,000

20

Rs.50,000 – Rs.60,000

10

Rs.50,001-Rs.1,00,000

30

Rs.60,000- Rs.1,50,000

20

Above Rs.1,00,000

40

Above Rs.1,50,000

30 with 2 per cent education cess

 

 

Above Rs.8,50,000

30 with 10 per cent surcharge and education cess of 2 per cent

 

Source: Union Budgets (1992-93 and 2004-05). 

 

Note: For details about income tax rates in other years refer to Annexure II.

 

Sources: (i) Union Budget (1992-93) and (ii) Union Budget (2004-05) 

 

 

 

 

 Charts A and B depict the rapid way with which incomes reported in returns have grown much faster than the taxes payable in respect of the two top income slabs, namely, above Rs 10 lakh  and Rs 5 lakh to Rs 10 lakh, respectively. This is reflective, as said above, of the receding average tax paid per unit of income in both the income brackets. 

 

Chart A: Tax payable and income of returns over Rs 10,00,000

 

Source: Indian Public Finance Statistics (2003-04).

 

Chart B : Tax payable and income of returns (Rs 5,00,001-10,00,000)

Source: Indian Public Finance Statistics (2003-04).  

Corporate Tax

The corporate tax rate of about 45.0 per cent as prevailing in 1993-94 for domestic companies was reduced subsequently to 30.0 per cent with addition of 10.0 per cent surcharge and 2.0 per cent education cess in 2005-06 (BE); the latter burden works out to 35.00 per cent as against 45 per cent in 1993-04. Similarly, for foreign companies the corporate tax rate was reduced gradually from the range of about 50.0-65.0 per cent in 1993-94 to 40.0 per cent with addition of 2.5 per cent surcharge and 2.0 per cent education cess in 2005-06 BE (Table 5).

   

Table 5: Evolution of Corporate Tax Rate

(per cent)

 

Domestic companies

Foreign companies

1993-94

45.0-50.0

50.0-65.0

1994-95

40.0

55.0

1995-96

40.0

50.0-55.0

1997-98

35.0

48.0

1998-99

35.0

48.0

1999-'00

35.0+10.0 surcharge

48.0

2000-01

35.0+10.0surcharge

48.0

2001-02

35.0+2.0surcharge

48.0

2002-03

35.0+5.0 surcharge

40.0+5.0 surcharge

2003-04

35.0+2.5 surcharge

40.0+2.5 surcharge

2004-05

35.0+ 2.5 surcharge

40.0+ 2.5 surcharge

 

+ 2.0 cess

+ 2.0 cess

2005-06

30.0+10.0 surcharge

40.0+ 2.5 surcharge

 

+2.0 education cess.

+2.0 education cess.

Source: Union Budgets (1993-94 to 2005-06)

 

 

As in the case of income tax, despite reductions in corporate tax rate, its share in total gross tax revenue has moved up (Table 3). Corporate tax revenues also have grown at an annual rate of about 20.5 per cent.  This could have been a result of good corporate performance and increased tax compliance. According to an RBI study (RBI Bulletin  November 2005), the annual growth in sales and gross profits of the private corporate sector on an average from 1990-91 to 2002-03 works out to 11.7 per cent  and 10.2 per cent, respectively.  A factor  which contributed to higher pre-tax profits has been the general decline in interest to gross profits ratio. With the reimposition of corporate taxation on zero-profit-making companies, the average rate of taxation paid by companies has gone up. Tax provision as percentage of profits before tax (PBT) has gone up from 19.7 per cent in 1995-96 to 36.7 pr cent in 2001-02 and 31.3 per cent in 2002-03. In this respect, the situation differs from the situation that has obtained for individual income tax assesses. 

 

Customs  duty

Share of customs duty in gross tax revenue was 31.9 per cent  in 1992-93  but declined to 18.4 per cent  in 2004-05 (RE) (Table 3). Customs duty has been gradually lowered over the past 12 years. This has affected the share of custom duty in gross tax revenue. Also, simplification of the rate structure has been done to some extent. Instance of custom duty changes has been mentioned below  for some goods to provide an idea about the policy stance.

 

1.      Import duty on cotton fabrics reduced  from 110 per cent  to 50 per cent ad valorem in 1993-94.

2.      Customs duty on specified imports by couriers reduced from 150 per cent  to 100 per cent. Maximum rate of duty for such imports reduced from 345 per cent  to 200 per cent  in 1994-95.

3.      Duty on items attracting duty higher than 50 per cent  reduced to 50 per cent  except on items such as passenger baggage and imports by couriers in 1995-96.

4.      In 1997-98 peak rate of customs duty reduced from 50 per cent  to 40 per cent except on  items such as passenger baggage and imports by couriers.

5.      In 2001-02, customs duty on 159 specified textiles machines reduced from 15 per cent  to 5 per cent .

6.      In 2003-04, peak rate of customs duty reduced from 30 per cent  to 25 per cent.

7.      In 2004-05, customs duty reduced from 20 per cent  to 15 per cent  on metals, such as ferrro alloys and stainless steel. Duty on specified textile and garment making machinery reduced from 20 per cent to 5 per cent. These items were to subjected to CVD (Additional Duty on Customs).

8.      In 2005-06, peak rate of customs duty on non-agricultural products has been reduced from 20 per cent  to 15 per cent  with a few exceptions.

 

Union excise duty

 Excise duty structure has also been simplified as part of tax reforms after 2002-03, with the slashing of many excise duty rates. Following these tax rate changes, the share of excise duty of 41.3 per cent in gross tax revenue in 1992-93 declined to 32.9 per cent  in 2004-05 (RE) (Table 3). Some instances of change in excise duty rates are provided below:

 

  1. The special excise duty (SED) was increased on all goods from 10 per cent to 15 per cent of Basic Excise Duty (BED) with some exceptions in 1992-93.

  2. Duty on synthetic organic dyes reduced from 34.5 per cent  to 25 per cent  ad valorem in 1993-94.

  3. SED abolished in 1999. Peak rate of customs duty reduced from 45 per cent (Basic + Special) to 40 per cent  basic. Reduction of 11 ad valorem rates of excise duty to 3 ad valorem rates, namely, 8 per cent, 16 per cent  and 24 per cent  in 1999-2000.

  4. Three rates of SED reduced to a single rate of 16 per cent  in 2000-01.

  5. In 2001-02 duty structure rationalized to a single rate of 16 per cent  CENVAT (with only four exceptions).

6.      Excise duty on polyester filament yarn including polyester textured yarns  reduced from 24 per cent  to 16 per cent  in 2005-06.

 

Service tax

 Service tax was introduced in India in 1994-95. It was levied  at 5 per cent in 1997-98, 8 per cent in 2003-04 and increased to 10 per cent  with 2 per cent education cess in 2004-05. In 2005-06, it has been levied at 10 per cent but nine more services have been  included in the tax net. At present about 81 services are under the purview of service tax.

 With increase in the tax rate and widening of the types of services incorporated in tax net, its share in gross tax revenue increased to 4.6 per cent in 2004-05 (RE) (Table 3). Though budget has placed its share at 4.7 per cent, chances are that the proportion may be higher.

 

Taxes withdrawn and newly introduced (restricted to information available)  

1.      Gift-tax abolished for gifts made after 1.10.1998.

  1. Interest-tax Act was terminated with effect from 1.4.2000.

The government in the budget 2005-06 introduced some new  taxes which are:

 

Fringe Benefit Tax (FBT)

FBT is a  tax on the employer on the value of perquisites and benefits provided or deemed to have been provided to the employees.

Securities Transaction Tax (STT)

STT has to be charged at specified rates on particular transactions made with rate for instance  0.075 per cent - 0.2 per cent on the value of transactions in 2005-06.

Banking Cash Transaction Tax (BCTT)

BCTT has been levied at 0.1 per cent  on taxable banking transactions in 2005-06.

 

April-December 2005

Customs duty collections in the first nine months of the financial year 2005-06 have about 90 per cent of  the budget estimates for 2005-06. Corporation tax, income tax and excise duty collections during April-December 2005 have been around 55 per cent of their 2005-06 budget estimates. Net tax revenue collected is 61.7 per cent of 2005-06 BE during the first nine months of financial year 2005-06 (Table 7).

  

Table 7: Tax Revenue (Net) April-December 2005

(Rs  in Crore)

 

Net Collections

April-December 2005

Budget estimates

2005-06

% of Actuals to the budget estimate

Net Collection

April-December 2004

 Per cent change

April-December 2005

Corporation tax

60457

110573

54.7

49697

         21.7

Income tax

36545

66239

55.2

31873

       14.6

Customs

47888

53182

90.0

41265

       16.0

Excise

67220

121533

55.3

61837

          8.7

Other taxes*

Tax Revenue (net)

Gross Tax Revenue

18729

168715

230839

17765

273466

370025

-

61.7

62.4

9559

141246

194231

-

      19.4

        18.8

Note: *Other taxes include Service tax, STT, FBT, etc as per Budget at a glance 2005-06.

Source: Controller General of Accounts, Government of India .

 

Conclusion

            India ’s experience on fiscal reforms has been a mixed one. For about a decade, gross fiscal deficit and revenue deficits remained high. Even as tax rates were reduced, expenditure compressions could not be achieved.

            In recent years, however, there have been distinct signs of improvement in tax-GDP ratios, Structure of taxation has also undergone a healthy change. The share of direct taxes in total tax revenue has improved, while the share of indirect taxes has declined. The rates of taxation have been reduced for both, but the reductions have more drastic in indirect taxes than in direct taxes.

             Within direct taxes, there is a difference in behaviour as between income tax and corporate tax revenues. Both have risen at high annual rates of 17 per cent  and 21 per cent respectively, during the past decade or so, but while the average income tax payable has drastically come down, tax provision in respect of companies as percentage of pre-tax profits has risen significantly in recent years due to re-introduction of taxation on zero tax-paying companies. In the case of income-tax assessments, revenue collections have increased because there has been a distinct shift in incomes in favour of higher income brackets.

            On the evolving nature of the structure of taxation, apart from  improvement in the share of direct taxes, there is the possibility of the services tax playing a growing role.  

 

Data Sources

Reserve Bank of India (2004-05): ‘Annual Report’, RBI.

Reserve Bank of India (2004-05): ‘Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy’, RBI.

EPW Research Foundation (2005): ‘Finances of State Governments in India : (1980-81 to 2004-05 (BE))’, Special Statistics 39.

Government of India (2005): Union Government Accounts’, Controller General of Accounts.

Government of India (2003-04): ‘Indian Public Finance Statistics’, Department of Economic Affairs, Economic Division, Ministry of Finance.

 

References

Allen, Charles M (1971): ‘The Theory of Taxation,’ Penguin Books Ltd, Middlesex , England .

Cukierman, Alex and Edwards, Sebastian and Guido, Tabellni (1992): ‘Seigniorage and Political Instablity’, The American Economic Review, vol 82(3).

Government of India (1990-91 to 2005-06): ‘Union Budgets’, Ministry of Finance.

Government of India (2001): ‘Tax Policy and Tax Administration for the Tenth Plan (May),’ Report of the Advisory Group,  Ministry of Finance.

Government of India (2002): ‘Report of the Task Force on Direct Taxes (December),’ Ministry of Finance.

Keen, Michael and Lighart, Jenny, E (2001): ‘Coordinating Tariff Reductions and Domestic Tariff Reform,’ Journal of International Economics, vol 56 (2).

Khattry, Barsha and Mohan Rao (2002): Fiscal Faux Pas? An Analysis of the Revenue   Implications of Trade Liberalization, World Development,  vol 30 (8).

Rajaraman, Indira (2004): ‘Fiscal Developments and Outlook in India ,’ NIPFP, Working Paper 15.

RBI Bulletin (2005): ‘Performance of Private Corporate Sector in the Post Liberalisation Period,’ Reserve Bank of India (November).

Stemrod, Joel (1999): ‘Tax Policy in the Real World,’ Press Syndicate of the University of Cambridge .

www.incometaxindia.gov.in

www.servicetax.gov.in/

 

Appendix I

 

Report of the Task Force on Direct Taxes (2002)

(Chairman: Dr Vijay Kelkar)

 

Some recommendations of the Task Force are:

  Tax Administration:

1.      To render quality tax payer services by tax administration to encourage voluntary compliance of tax laws.

2.      To detect and penalize non-compliance.

 

Income-tax reforms

1.      Low rates, few nominal rates, a broad base, few exemptions, few incentives, few surcharges, few temporary measures.

2.      The basic exemption limit must be at moderate level

 

Corporate reforms

1.      The general rate of depreciation for plant and machinery’s should be reduced to 15 per cent from the existing level of 25 per cent.

2.      The tax benefit u/s 33 AC of the Income Tax Act should be abolished.

 

The Report (2002) states that the proposals recommended in it should be seen as an integral part of the second generation of reforms, aimed to meet India’s strategic needs, i.e., to accelerate the growth rate while meeting the challenges of globalisation.

Various eminent committees, viz., the Chelliah Committee and the Parthasarthi Shome Committee have recommended an open, transparent tax system, with low tax rates, minimal exemptions and effective tax administration (Report 2002).

   

 Annexure II

Income slabs for Income-Tax and Rates of Taxation Prescribed

1992-93 to 2005-06

1992-93

1999-2000

2002-03

Rs 28,001-Rs 50,000 (20%)

Rs50,001-Rs 60,000 (10)%

Rs 50,001-Rs 60,000 (10%)

Rs 50,001-Rs 1,00,000 (30%)

Rs 60,001-Rs1,50,000(20%)*

Rs 60,001-Rs 1,50,000 (20%)

Above Rs 1,00,000 (40%)

Above Rs 1,50,000 (30%)*

with 5% surcharge

 

* surcharge 10%

above Rs 1,50,000 (30%)

 

 

with 5% surcharge

 

 

 

1994-95

2000-01

2003-04

Rs 35,001-Rs 60,000 (20%)

Rs50,001-Rs 60,000 (10)%

Rs 50,001-Rs 60,000 (10%)

Rs 60,001-Rs 1,20,000 (30%)

Rs 60,001-Rs1,50,000(20%)*

Rs 60,001-Rs 1,50,000 (20%)

Above Rs 1,20,000 (40%)

Above Rs 1,50,000 (30%)#

above Rs 1,50,000 (30%)

 

* surcharge 10%

Above Rs 8,50,000 10% surcharge

1995-96

# surcharge 15%

 

Rs 40,001-Rs 60,000 (20%)

 

 

Rs 60,001-Rs 1,20,000 (30%)

 

2004-05

Above Rs 1,20,000(40%)

 

Rs 50,000-Rs 60,000 (10%)

 

 

Rs 60,000-Rs 1,50,000 (20%)

1997-98

2001-02

above Rs 1,50,000 (30%)#

Rs 40,001-Rs 60,000 (10%)

Rs 50,001-Rs 60,000(10%)

above Rs 1,00,000 additional

Rs 60,000-Rs 1,50,000 (20%)

Rs 60,001-Rs 1,50,000(20%) -

2% education cess

above Rs 1,50,000 (30%)

with 2% surcharge on total

# above Rs 8,50,000 10% sur-

 

Income-tax payable after rebate.

charge and education cess 2%

 

Above Rs 1,50,000 (30%) -

 

1998-99

With 2% surcharge on total

2005-06

Rs 50,001-Rs 60,000 (10%)

Income-tax payable after rebate.

Rs 1,00,000-Rs 1,50,000 (10%)

Rs 60,001-Rs 1,50,000 (20%)

 

Rs 1,50,001-Rs 2,50,000 (20%)

above Rs 1,50,000 (30%)

 

above Rs 2,50,000 (30%)#

 

 

# above Rs 10,00,000 a 10%

 

 

 surcharge

 

 

2% education cess.

Note: For details and caveats please refer to the original documents.

Source: Union Budgets (1992-93 – 2005-06)

 

Annexure III: Classification of Income Tax Payable by Individuals - By Range of Income 

  * [* This note is prepared by Archana Kathe.]

 

 

Highlights of  Current Economic Scene

AGRICULTURE     

The Central government has authorized the State Trading Corporation (STC) to import 5 lakh tonne of wheat from global market to contain the supply and price crisis in the country. The duty free imports are to be done exclusively at the ports of Kakinada , Tuticorin, Chennai and Vishakhapattanam to cater only to consumer needs in the southern states, where the tightest supply and price crunch is perceived. The import consignments are expected to arrive in the southern ports by April. By then procurement of wheat from the new crop would relax the pressure on the domestic and global price. Wheat imports, before this, had been made in 1998-99 to the tune of 1.5 million tonne.

 The Union government has cut the tariff values or the base price at which the custom duties are calculated for vegetable oils as follows :

Tariff cut (in $ per tonne)

Edible oil

Previous

Revised

Crude Palm Oil

415

412

RBD palm Oil

430

427

Others-palm Oil

423

420

Crude Palmolein

437

434

RBD Palmolein

440

437

Others-Palmolein

439

436

Crude Soyabean oil

492

484

 

While the values for the palm group of oil have been cut by $ 3 a tonne, for crude Soyabean oil, the reduction is $ 8 per tonne. While reducing the values, the Centre has also ensured that the difference in the base price between crude palm oil and RBD (refined bleached deodourised) palmolein remains $ 25 a tonne.

Chilli production in the 4 major states – Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh – is estimated to be less by 30 to 50 per cent in 2005-06 following the excess and delayed heavy rains in these states in 2004-05 monsoon season. The crop in Karnataka, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh is expected to be lower by 50 per cent, whereas in Andhra Pradesh production is speculated at around 3.5 lakh tonne, a fall of 22.2 per cent. The carry-forward stock would also be much less due to damages cost by rains. Consequently, the total availability of chilli in 2005-06 in the country might be somewhere between 6-7 lakh tonne as against estimated production of around 10 lakh tonne in 2004-05 leading to hike in prices.

Domestic cotton output is estimated to fall in 2005-06 as compared to that during 2004-05 owing to unfavourable weather. India , world’s third-largest producer, is likely to produce 24 million bales compared with 24.3 million bales in the marketing year ended September 2005. Heavy rains in September and October 2005 during the crop maturing period had brought down the crop output in the key states such as Haryana, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh as plants shed their cotton. However, as per the experts, slight fall in production will not affect the exports.

The Union government has put forth the proposal to allow 51 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI) in retailing of foods in areas like dairy, marine, poultry, fruits and vegetables. While 100 per cent FDI is already allowed in food processing, investment is restricted in retailing to select plantation crops and alcoholic beverages.

According to the global organisation Infofish , India has taken second position after China in global aquaculture production in 2003. While China has garnered close to 70 per cent of the global aquaculture production in quantity and 50 per cent in value, India is a distant second with 5 per cent global production and 4 per cent in value. Indonesia and Vietnam occupy the third and fourth positions. Global harvest of fishery products totalled 146.30 million tonnes in 2003. Despite a 6.6 per cent growth in the aquaculture sector, total production has increased by only 0.35 per cent, which was attributed to the negative growth in capture fisheries.

 

INDUSTRY

Overall

Assocham has projected that the contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP, which is currently staggering at around 17 per cent, will enhance substantially. For the projected growth to be achieved the chamber has suggested creating a feasible environment for higher investments, technological development, especially in the textiles, engineering, auto components and machine tools industries, lowering of manufacturing costs to enable industries to face global competition, meeting basic infrastructure needs of the industries to help diversification in export manufacturing. The manufacturing sector has the potential to create 25 million new jobs by 2008-09, with machine tools, auto components, pharmaceuticals, engineering, textiles providing strong growth impetus within the sector.

 

Pharmaceuticals

The National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority has cut the prices of 112 formulations and has increased the price of 13. The revised prices would become effective within 15 days from the date of notification in the official gazette or receipt of the non-ceiling price.

 

INFRASTRUCTURE

  Overall

The growth of infrastructure industries has declined marginally to 4.7 per cent in December 2005 from 4.8 per cent in the same month of the previous year mainly on account of a sharp decline in crude oil output (a negative growth of 8.1 per cent) and poor performance of the power sector (growth generation fell from 4.4 per cent to 2.9 per cent). The growth would have been much lower but for the good performance of the cement industry (rise of 13.4 per cent compared to 8.3 per cent) and a rebound in steel production (from 3.8 per cent to 6.7 per cent).

 

Energy

 The ambitious oil-from-coal plans of the government seem to have hit a roadblock since CIL has expressed inability to supply the desired amount of coal, which may delay the project by nearly a decade. A pilot project for coal liquefaction by OIL was to be supplied 3.5 million tonne of coal from a CIL subsidiary North Eastern Coalfields Limited (NEC), for which NEC will be unable to supply coal till 2013-14 because of additional demand from power sector projects coming up in Assam and coal requirements of other industries. The sourcing of coal from other mines would be financially unviable.

 Power

 The power ministry has finalised sites for three out of the five mega power projects – Mundra in Gujarat , Sidhi in Madhya Pradesh and Saran in Chattisgarh. While Saran and Sidhi will have pithead plants, Mundra will be the location for an imported/blended coal based plant.

 Shipping

 The Mumbai Port Trust (MbPT) and Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT) will jointly undertake a Rs 800 crore project for widening and deepening of Mumbai harbour channel and JNPT channel so as to accommodate bigger vessels at both ports.

 Railways

 The container corporation of India (Concor) has invited tenders from private companies to acquire 900 wagons and has plans of acquiring 2000 more wagons by mid-2006 to add to its current 8000 strong wagon fleet. The move is aimed at achieving a 20 per cent year-on-year growth in container movement and double container traffic in five years. The company is to now focus on pushing up volumes and an enhanced fleet would help improve upon transit time, delivery schedule and cargo safety.

 Aviation

 

Delhi

Mumbai

 

Technical

Points

Revenue

share

(per cent)

Technical

Points

Revenue

share

(per cent)

 

Old

New

Old

New

GMR

84.7

81.7

43.6

84.7

81.7

33.0

Reliance

80.9

74.8

45.9

81.0

74.8

21.3

GVK

Did Not Bid

76.0

 73.0

38.7

DS

73.1

73. 3

40.2

73.1

73.3

28.1

The empowered group of ministers has approved the bids of GMR-Fraport and GVK-South Africa consortia respectively for modernisation of the Delhi and Mumbai airports after considering the financial bids of the top four consortia. Both the proposals will now be placed before the civil aviation minister for final approval.

 

 

INFLATION

The annual point-to-point inflation rate based on wholesale price index (WPI) has gone up to 4.51 per cent for the week ended January 21, 2006 from 4.40 per cent during the previous week. The inflation rate was higher at 5.43 per cent in the corresponding week last year.

The WPI in the week under review has remained unchanged at the previous week’s level of 197 (Base: 1993-94=100). The index of primary articles’ group (weight 22.02 per cent) has declined marginally by 0.1 per cent to 194.3 from the previous week’s level of 194.4, due to a decline in the price index of non-food articles. The index of non-food articles has gone down by 0.3 per cent to 176.7 from 177.2 in the last week, mainly due to lower prices of logs, timber and copra. The index of ‘fuel, power, light and lubricants’ group (weight 14.23 per cent) has remained unaltered at the previous week’s level of 311. The index of ‘manufactured products’ group constituting the maximum of 63.7 per cent of total weight, has risen marginally by 0.1 per cent to 172.5 from the previous week’s level of 172.4, mainly due to increased prices of food products, textiles, ‘chemical and chemical products’ and base metals.

The latest final index of WPI for the week ended November 26, 2005 has been revised downwards; as a result both, the absolute index and the implied inflation rate declined to 198.1 and 4.48 per cent respectively, as compared to their provisional week’s level of 198.2 and 4.54 per cent, respectively.

Overall, the rate of inflation has remained reasonably contained in the range of 4 to 4.5 per cent in last two months. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of India , has hiked the reverse repo rate, the rate at which banks park their excess money with the RBI, by 25 basis points to 5.5 per cent on January 24, 2006, with a view to anchoring inflationary expectations and maintaining the emphasis on price stability.  

BANKING

The banking industry has unanimously voted against a de-regulation of the savings bank deposit rates for the next one to two years. However, they have given a go-ahead to de-regulation of small advances up to Rs 2 lakh. This comes in wake of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor YV Reddy's request to the Indian Banks' Association (IBA) to prepare discussion papers on review and deregulation of interest rate on savings bank deposits and lending rates on small loans up to Rs 2 lakh, in the mid-term review of the Credit Policy for 2005-06, held in October 2005. While the savings deposit rates are at 3.5 per cent per annum, the RBI has mandated banks to extend loans up to Rs 2 lakh, at a rate below the prime-lending rate (sub-PLR). According to the discussion paper presented to the RBI recently, bankers have argued that the current timing is not conducive for de-regulation of savings deposit rates, given the intense liquidity crunch faced by the banking industry. As it could result in an initial price war among banks, leading to an asset-liability mismatch situation in their books. Informally, bankers have agreed that 1-2 years is an appropriate time frame for implementation of de-regulation of interest rates on savings deposit rates, but have agreed to support the de-regulation of rates on small loans of up to Rs 2 lakh, which are generally classified under priority sector lending.

The Supreme Court has referred back the decision to the Bombay High Court regarding Federal Bank taking over Ganesh Bank of Kurundwad. The Bombay High Court has put a stay order on the proposed takeover, which was challenged by the RBI in the apex court.

The Netherlands-based Rabo Bank, which has a presence in India through its wholly-owned non-banking finance company, Rabo India Finance, has been allowed to retain its pre-initial public offer (IPO) stake of 20 per cent in the private sector Yes Bank. After its stake fell to 14.8 per cent post-IPO, Rabo has acquired fresh shares through the FII account route and hiked it to 19.4 per cent. Importantly, the RBI norm, issued on February 28, 2005, prohibits foreign banks having regional presence from holding over 5 per cent in an Indian private sector bank. However, RBI has allowed the stake level to be retained since Rabo India Finance is not a banking entity.

Bank of Baroda has amalgamated 5 sponsored rural regional banks (RRBs) of Rajasthan into one RRB, under the name of Baroda Gramin Bank.

The RBI is working on a proposal to reduce the statutory liquidity requirement (SLR) of banks to 20 per cent from the current level of 25 per cent. This is in a bid to free up much needed resources to meet requirement of the growing credit demand, as well as an attempt to inject liquidity. Currently, banks are mandated to hold a minimum of 25 per cent of the their demand and time liabilities as SLR, which comprises government securities, treasury bills and state government bonds. Though pegged at 25 per cent, historically banks SLR holdings generally has remained very high, between 40-45 per cent as banks had no option than investing in gilts due to slow credit offtake. Currently, the industry average of SLR holding is still at 33 per cent. However in the changing scenario, banks are avoiding investing in gilts due to volatility in the yield and now banks have adequate options to deploy their resources as credit. Rather several public sector banks are now inclined to liquidate a portion of their excess SLR to raise resources to be deployed in credit market. Recently, Bank of Baroda and Dena Bank has declared that they would liquidate some of their excess SLR to free capital to meet their credit disbursement requirements.

Based on the recommendations made by the Vaidyanathan Committee Report, the government of Maharashtra has permitted urban co-operative credit societies to begin lending to the agricultural sector. Until now, these societies were barred from lending to the rural sector. According to government officials, the urban co-operative credit societies will be permitted to grant short and mid-term loans between one to three years. One of the conditions mentions that the loan amount should not be more than 20 per cent of the annual income of the farmer. The board of directors of the co-operative credit society will decide the rate of interest.  Maharashtra has a requirement of Rs.4,500 crore worth agricultural credit per annum. The state has over 26,000 non-agricultural urban co-operative credit societies with a deposit base of around Rs.30,000 crore.

PUBLIC FINANCE

Net tax revenue collected is 61.7 per cent of  budget estimate BE 2005-06 during the first nine months of financial year 2005-06.  Custom duty collection has been 90 per cent of BE of 2005-06 during April-December 2005. Corporation tax, income tax and excise duty collection has been around 55 per cent of their  BE 2005-06 during April-December 2005.

Revenue deficit is 83.6 per cent of BE 2005-06 during April-December 2005 and was 82.7 per cent during the corresponding period of previous year.

Fiscal deficit has increased to 71.7 per cent of BE 2005-06 during April-December 2005 as compared to 65.7 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Total receipts have declined to 61.7 per cent of BE 2005-06 during April-December 2005 as compared to 69.5 per cent during April-December 2004. Total expenditure has also reduced to 64.6 per cent of BE 2005-06 during April-December 2005 as compared to 68.4 per cent during the corresponding period of the previous year.

The centre has chalked out the national e-Governance action plan for implementation of various e-Governance initiatives. One of the key mission projects under this is e-delivery of tax payer services by income tax department. The objective is to provide taxpayer services through website as a single window 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The computerization program in income tax department has three major components- (1) e-delivery of taxpayer services (2) Augmentation of departmental computer infrastructure (3) Setting up Tax Information Network (TIN).

 

FINANCIAL  MARKET

Capital Markets

Primary Market

Indo Tech Transformers limited is set to tap the market on February 10 through an IPO issue of 3,945,130 equity shares of Rs. 10 each for cash at a price of Rs. 130 per equity share. The issue closes on February 16.

Coal India Ltd. is planning to tap the market with its maiden IPO issue of 5 per cent paid-up capital to raise Rs. 300 crore. The entire proceeds from the IPO would be used to fund the company’s expansion programme.

Development Credit Bank, with a view to meet its capital needs is planning to issue of public offering worth Rs. 250 crore.

Secondary Market

During the week, the squaring of the long position on margin call pressure and weak Asian markets continued to dampen the domestic bourses. Moreover, concerns that the margins of the banks will come under pressure with the hardening of interest rate coupled the new securitisation guidelines on standard assets by RBI led the bank stock nosedive. The BSE sensex witnessed a decline of 1.30 per cent as it closed the week at 9742.58 points. While, BSE Small-cap index fell by around 5.12 per cent and BSE Mid-cap fell by 1.87 per cent. Among the sectoral indices,. Bankex recorded the highest negative returns at 5.71 per cent followed by consumer durables index at 3.97 per cent and BSE PSU index at 2.85 per cent.

Irrespective of the broader S & P CNX Nifty of NSE closing at 3,001.10 for the first time ever on January 31, the NSE’s S & P CNX Nifty recorded negative returns of about 1.41 per cent during the week. Likewise S & P CNX 500 witnessed a decline of 1.44 per cent and CNX Midcap fell by 1.28 per cent.

During the week the FIIs have been net buyers of equities to the extent of Rs. 1089.50 crore with purchases worth Rs. 5134.29 crore and sales worth Rs. 4044.20 crore. Meanwhile, the mutual funds have been net sellers to the extent of Rs. 76.70 crore with purchases worth Rs. 967.27 crore and sales worth Rs. 1043.97 crore.

Interestingly, with the ongoing boom in the equity market, more and more mutual funds are tapping the market with new funds offering (NFOs), thereby increasing their investment in debt instruments three and half times more than that in equity market. Mutual funds net investment in the debt market has risen to Rs. 33,003.18 crore between April 2005 to January 25,2005, which is three and half times more than their net investment int h equity market at Rs. 9,643.46 crore during the same period.

Sebi has formed a committee under the chairmanship of G. Anantharaman, to study the future of the Regional Stock Exchanges (RSEs) demutualisation. The terms of reference of the committee is to review ans examine the futures role of the RSEs and their subsidiary post demutualisation, keeping in view the legal requirements of the Securities Contracts (Regulations) Act, 1956. The committee is expected to submit its report within two months from the date of the first meeting..

Derivatives

The RBI is planning to introduce the IAS-39 standards of accounting, in a joint effort with the ICAI. IAS-39 brings visibility in the use of derivative instruments for investors and other financial statements users.

During the week the total turnover of the NSE’s F & O segment stood at Rs. 117229 crore with the daily average turnover of around Rs. 23445.8 crore.

Government Securities Market

Primary Market

In the week under review, the RBI has mopped up Rs. 706.54 crore and Rs. 1250 crore through 91-day treasury bills and 364-day treasury bills, respectively. The cut-off yield were 6.5634 per cent and 6.7421 per cent for 91-day and 364-day treasury bills, respectively.

RBI has slashed the scheduled auction amount from Rs. 9,000 crore to Rs. 6,000 crore taking into consideration the tight liquidity conditions. It has announced sale (re-issue) of 7.46 per cent –2017 paper for Rs. 3,000 crore and the sale (re-issue) of 7.40 per cent-2035 for Rs. 3,000 crore. Both the auctions would be conducted through a price-based auction using uniform price method. 

Secondary Market

During the week the call rates have ranged between 6.65 per cent and 7.76 per cent. the daily average outstanding amounts in the LAF reverse repo operations conducted during the week stood at Rs. 2,611 crore , while RBI received average subscription of Rs. 11,470 crore  for LAF repo auctions. The weighted average YTM of 8.07 per cent-2017 paper closed at 7.3828 per cent on February 03 as compared to 7.3919 per cent on January 27.

The finance ministry is likely to amend the RBI Act in the coming Parliament session by reworking the definition of repo and reverse repo envisaged in the Act. The definition would be changed in a manner to facilitate the market participants or the banks in the transaction exercise.

Bond Market

In its final guidelines on securitisation, RBI has decided to permit a ‘call option’ on the securities issued by SPV floated for securitisation of an asset portfolio. However, ‘put option’ would continue to be disallowed for these securities.

The finance ministry released the report of the Expert Committee on corporate bonds and securitisation formed under the chairmanship of Dr. R.H.Patil. The recommendations put forth by the committee are as follows:

·      Uniform stamps duty on corporate bonds across the country.

·      Tax deduction at source rules on corporate bonds to be similar tot he ones applicable on government securities.

·      In order to incentivise  corporates to raise a part of their requirement through bonds, the time and cost for public issuance and the disclosure and listing requirements for private placements should be reduced and made similar.

·      Banks should be allowed to issue bonds of maturities of over 5 years for assets liability matching purposes.

·      Scope of investment by provident/pension/gratuity funds and insurance companies in corporate bonds should be enhanced and rating should form the basis of such investments rather than the category of issuers.

·      In order to encourage banks to invest in corporate bonds, investment in corporate bonds should be considered as part of the total bank credit while computing credit-deposit ratio by the banks.

·      Immediate creation of a centralised database of all bonds issued by corporates.

·      Develop online order matching platforms for trading of corporate bonds.

Foreign Exchange Market

During the week, the rupee has depreciated against the dollar from Rs. 44.14 per dollar as on January 30 to Rs. 44.23 dollar as on February 03. The six-month forward premia closed at 2.10 per cent on February 03 as compared with 2.72 per cent on January 27. Meanwhile, the Fed has raised its rate for the 14th time by a quarter percentage to 4.5 per cent on February 01.

Commodities Futures derivatives

On January 31, the gold prices hit its all-time high value in both international and domestic markets as speculation that the mounting tension over Iran ’s nuclear program would increase the oil price which in turn may fuel inflation rate. The gold hit a new 25-year high when gold for immediate delivery rose as much as $3.11, or 0.6 per cent to $571.46 an ounce and in Mumbai, it rose to Rs. 8,210 per 10 grams.

Ahead of the Union budget, the country’s metal trade representatives have urged the government to eliminate the import duty on mental such as copper from 10 per cent and other local duties to be halved to 8 per cent from 16 per cent, for soaring world prices have pushed some units to the brink on closure.

NCDEX has launched sponge iron futures on January 30. The initial contracts available for trading will expire in March and April and subsequent contracts will be introduced on the 10th of the every month.

NCDEX, on February 01 has launched SMS alert service, which will be useful for members, traders, investors and farmers to monitor market prices of commodities. The data will consists of spot commodity market prices that could enable specific commodity traders to trade at uniform prices.

 

INSURANCE

Consequent to the completion of the acquisition of entire equity capital of AMP, Australia and Sanmar Group of Chennai in AMP Sanmar Life Insurance Company Ltd, Anil Ambani controlled Reliance Capital Ltd has been allowed to change the name of the company to Reliance Life Insurance Company Ltd (RLICL). The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (Irda) has formally allowed the changes in the name following the fresh certificate of incorporation issued by the Registrar of Companies, Tamil Nadu, on January 17, 2006. Irda in a notice has asked RLICL to carry on the business of life insurance in India subject to the condition, inter-alia, that RLICL shall honour its commitments to the policyholders of AMP Sanmar Life Insurance on the same terms and conditions subject to which they were issued and it shall take necessary steps to protect the interests of the policyholders in accordance with the provisions of the Irda Act and Insurance Act. Reliance Capital has acquired the entire equity capital of AMP Sanmar Life Insurance for about Rs 100 crore in September 2005 to make a direct entry into life insurance with a readymade customer base.

CREDIT RATING

Icra has assigned a ‘LAA+’ rating to the proposed Rs 10 billion subordinated bond programmes of UTI Bank Limited (UTI Bank), while the ‘LAA+’ rating of the outstanding subordinated bonds programme of UTI Bank has been reaffirmed. The agency has also assigned an ‘A1+’rating to the Rs. 25 billion certificate of deposits programme of UTI Bank. The ratings factor in UTI Bank’s improving profitability supported by increase in net interest income, healthy growth in fee income, focus on strengthening its asset quality and adequate capitalisation. The ratings are also driven by the strong position of the bank in domestic debt arrangement business, which enables the bank to attract new businesses and clients.

Icra has reaffirmed the short term rating of ‘A1+’ assigned to the Rs. 120 million commercial paper programme of Hindustan Latex Limited (HLL), as well as the ‘LA+’ rating assigned to the Rs. 250 million long- term debt programme of HLL. The ratings take into account HLL’s dominant position in the domestic condom market translating into strong cash accruals, a favourable financial risk profile and comfortable liquidity. The long-term rating is however constrained by the high concentration of HLL’s revenues on the government segment and the continued pressure on realisations from the competitive domestic non-government segment, characterised by low entry barriers, low volume growth and large surplus capacities.

Icra has reaffirmed the ‘A1+’ rating assigned to the Rs. 200 million commercial papers programme of Rajasthan Spinning & Weaving Mills Limited (RSWML). The rating takes into account RSWML’s strong presence in the domestic blended yarn market, increasing volumes in the export market and capacity expansions in cotton yarn

Icra has withdrawn the rating of ‘A2+’ assigned to Om Logistics Limited’s Rs.50 million commercial paper programme, as there is no amount outstanding against the rated instrument. Likewise, the agency has also withdrawn the ‘MAA’ rating assigned to the Rs 35 crore preference share programme of Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Ltd., since the debt instrument has been fully redeemed by the company, and there is no outstanding against the said debt instrument.

Crisil has assigned an ‘AA’ rating to the Rs. 2.5 billion Tier-II bond issue of UCO Bank, while the agency has reaffirmed the ‘AA’ rating to Rs. 1.5 billion Tier-II bonds and ‘P1+’ rating Rs. 50 billion certificate of deposit programme of UCO Bank. The ratings continue to benefit significantly from the majority ownership by the government of India . The ratings also reflect the bank's comfortable liquidity position and resource profile. These rating strengths are, however, tempered by the bank's modest Tier I capital adequacy ratio, average earnings profile and average asset quality.

Crisil has assigned 'Grade 4' to the Pre-Sea Training Course for the General Purpose Ratings conducted by Arya Marine Academy (Arya). The assigned grade denotes that the quality of education imparted is satisfactory and in line with the course objectives laid down by the Director General of Shipping (DGS). The grading reflects the Institute's able faculty and adequate infrastructure. Arya's weak financial position and absence of placement assistance to its students constrain the grading.

Crisil has reaffirmed its 'AA+/Stable' ratings on National Hydroelectric Power Corporation Limited (NHPC) two different bond issues worth Rs. 10 billion and Rs. 5 billion, respectively. debt programmes. Crisil's rating on NHPC is based on ownership and support from the government of India , strong operating efficiency, stable cash flows, and good project management skills. These strengths are, however, partly offset by the company's weak capital structure and credit risk profile of its customers.

Following Apollo Tyres limited acquisition announcement of 100 per cent equity in South Africa based Dunlop Tyres International (Pty) Limited in an all-cash deal of Rs. 2900 million, Crisil has placed the ratings of the company under Rating Watch with Development Implications. It has assigned ‘AA-‘ rating to the Rs. 234.8 million non-convertible debentures and ‘P1+’ rating to the company’s Rs. 2600 million commercial paper programme under Rating Watch with Development Implications

Crisil has downgraded its rating on the Rs. 1 billion non-convertible debenture programme of Electrosteel Castings Limited (Electrosteel) from 'AA+/Negative' to 'AA/Negative'. The rating action follows Electrosteel's announcement of Rs 4030 million capital expenditure programme to set up cooking coal and sinter plant projects.

CORPORATE SECTOR

Aviva Plc has acquired 51 per cent share in the Sri Lanka based Eagle Insurance Limited for Rs 117 crore.

Wipro Technologies has won a $ 27 million five-year software services contract from General Motors.

India ’s second largest truck maker Ashok Leyland has signed a Rs 230 crore order to supply 872 specialised water carriers for the Indian Army.

Wopolin Plastics, formerly known as Bajaj Plastic, has announced a lockout at its Nagpur unit citing heavy losses and low productivity.

Dr Reddy’s Laboratory has entered into research collaboration with Argenta Discovery of the UK to develop and commercialise a novel approach to the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Tata Motors has reported a total sale of 46,635 vehicles (including exports) for January 2006, up 19.6 per cent from January 2005. The company’s commercial vehicles sales in the domestic marketing stood at 21,301 units, up 25.3 per cent. Medium and heavy commercial vehicles sales stood at 13,086 units while light commercial vehicle sales were 8,214 units.

Apollo Tyres has acquired Dunlop Tyres International for Rs 29 crore in all cash deal. Durban based Dunlop Tyres, popularly known as Dunlop South Africa, also owns subsidiaries in Zimbabwe and the UK .

Maruti has reported 3.2 per cent rise in total sales of 50109 in January 2006 against 48,544 units sold a year ago. Sale in the domestic markets in January increased 7.1 per cent to 48,526 units against 45,300 units in 2005. However exports declined 51.2 per cent at 1583 units.

General Motors India has reported flat sales at 2,592 units in January 2006 against 2,586 units a year ago. The sale included 1990 units of Chevrolet Tavera and 602 units of the sedan Opra.

Honda Siel Cars Limited, manufacturer of premium and luxury cars in India , registered a growth of 21 per cent in sales at 4,570 units.

Ford India has reported a 124 per cent growth in sales to 5,173 units in January 2006, with a good response for the newly launched Ford Fiesta.

Tata Motors has sold 21,301 commercial vehicles (CV) in the domestic market during January 2006, posting a 25.3 per cent growth over the same period previous year and the passenger car sales was up by 15 per cent to 20,765 units. The total exports of cars and CV’s at 4,569 units up by 15.9 per cent over the same period previous year.

ACC Limited has despatched 16.48 lakh tonne of cement in the month of January 2006, registering a 9 per cent growth over the same period a year ago. Its cement production went up by 10 per cent to 16.46 lakh tonne.

Gujarat Ambuja Cements despatched 12.55 lakh tonne of cement in January 2006 posting a 14 per cent growth over January 2005. The company’ cement production risen by 17 per cent to 12.65 lakh tonne.

Aditya Birla Group companies Grasim Industries and UltraTech together posted a 12.8 per cent growth in cement despatches at 27.3 lakh tonne during January 2006. The total production by both companies in January 2006 stood at 27 lakh tonne, up by 10.3 per cent over January 2005.

Electrical and communication cables manufacturer Finolex Industries posted 17 per cent increase in net profit to Rs 14.7 crore for October-December 2005.

Jindal Steel and Power has reported 2.6 per cent drop in net sales to Rs 625 crore for the quarter ended December 2005 however, net profit rose marginally by 2 per cent at Rs 126 crore.

Mahindra and Mahindra has registered a 23 per cent rise in total sales at Rs 2,186 crore for quarter ended December 2005. The profitability of the automotive segment has improved in the last three quarters, owing to price hikes and good sales by the company. Its net profit surged by 75 per cent to Rs 234 crore.

Hexaware Technologies posted 41.7 per cent increase in net profit at Rs 30 crore for the fourth quarter ended December 2005. It has posted net profit of Rs 77.5 crore for the year ended December 2005 as compared with Rs 43.8 crore for the previous year.

Transport Corporation of India has reported 15 per cent rise to 223 crore for quarter ended December 2005 and net profit galloped by 67 per cent to Rs 5.2 crore over the same period previous year.

Bongaigaon Refinery and Petrochemicals reported a 35.5 per cent rise in the total income to Rs 1598 crore for the quarter ended December 2005. However, its net profit declined by 8.4 per cent at Rs 26.2 crore.

 

LABOUR

The New Pension Scheme (NPS), which proposes a structural shift from the ‘defined benefit’ to ‘defined contribution’ system, may exclude government staff from its purview which account for just three per cent of the total organised workforce. The Bill, in its present form specifically includes the central government employees who have joined government services after January 1, 2004. The left parties have strongly opposed to the NPS, under which contributions are defined, but benefits depend on market returns and the fund managers expertise. Apparently, the left’s concern is to protect the central government employees, one of its main constituencies. Therefore, the left had demanded that opting for NPS should be voluntary for government employees. However, an amendment to the Bill by deleting a particular section concerning central government employees is difficult, since the contribution of new government employees and a matching one by the government have been set aside in a public account. Pending the enactment of the Bill and appointment of pension fund managers, the government pays interest at the rate of 8 per cent to employees’ money parked in the public account.

The National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) of the government, which has proposed to provide 100 days of employment to every rural household per year, has been launched on February 2, 2006 initially in 200 districts. It is proposed that the entire country will be covered in four years. Under the programme, the government is bound to provide jobs within 15 days of receiving an application or else pay an unemployment allowance to the applicant. The government has provided Rs 100 crore to each district for the purpose. The activities under the programme include water conservation, watershed management, drought and flood-proofing, forestry, land development, rural connectivity and wasteland development. To work out the programme, a sum of Rs 10,000 crore will be needed for the remaining months of the current financial year. While Rs 5,500 crore will come from the Sampoorna Gramin Rozgar Yojana fund, Rs 4,500 crore will be obtained from the Food-for-Work scheme.

SOCIAL SECTOR

Education

The forthcoming budget for 2006-07 may see an increase of around 50 per cent in the allocation of social sector schemes. The budgetary allocation for 2005-06 was Rs 39,766.56 crore, which is now expected to be scaled up to Rs 58,795 crore for the next financial year. However, there are 300 centrally sponsored schemes, which might see only a token increase in their respective allocations. The bigger schemes, however are expected to gain a considerable increase in their allocations. The budgetary allocation for Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan is pegged at Rs 11,000 crore as compared to Rs 7,800 crore in 2005-06, an increase of 41 per cent. In the case of Integrated Child Development Services, a 14 per cent increase is expected from Rs 3,510 crore in 2005-06 to Rs 4,000 crore in 2006-07. Similarly, other schemes like National Horticulture Mission and the Micro Irrigation Scheme may receive increases of 40 per cent and 37 per cent in their respective budget allocations for the next fiscal year. Likewise, the Rural Housing Scheme may get a 24 per cent increase in its budgetary allocation.

 

Housing

After HDFC increased its interest rates on housing loans by 50 bps, IDBI hiked its retail lending rates by 25 basis points.  

Most of the housing finance companies (HFCs) of the country are currently under pressure on their cost of funds. On one hand, the hike in reverse repo rate by the RBI has put the margins under pressure, while on the other hand, the national housing bank (NHB) in its recent guideline has increased the risk weightage on housing finance to commercial real estate properties from 100 basis points to 125 basis points (bps). To make the situation worse for HFCs, the RBI has formed stringent guidelines for raising international resources through the foreign currency convertible bond (FCCB) route. However, the FCCB route will not affect Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC), the largest player in this sector, as it has maintained a balance sheet of Rs 500 crore for the last five years. The increase in the risk weightage to 125 bps would mean that HFCs have to access more resources to maintain the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 12 per cent. With the FCCB route now impossible for raising resources the HFCs are now faced with the option of raising money domestically where costs of funds have started moving upwards.

 

EXTERNAL SECTOR

The commerce ministry has officially backed exporters demand for scraping FBT and service tax incidence. In its pre-Budget memorandum submitted to the finance ministry, the minister has said that these taxes affected the competitiveness of exporters in the world market and so should be done away with.

According to ICRA report, India ’s export of cotton Yarn, fabric and madeups and cotton apparel to conventionally non-quota markets has dropped sharply, during April-September 2005. Exports to these markets have been 20 per cent lower during the above mentioned period, compared to the corresponding period previous year. However, exports of these items to quota-restricted markets – the US , EU, Canada – have risen by 13.5 per.

 

INFORMATION  TECHNOLOGY

The world’s largest automobile company General Motors (GM) has announced a $15 billion, five-year deal to outsource IT services to several companies and Wipro is one of the Indian companies to be awarded work in this contract. The biggest chunk of this deal worth $7 billion has been cornered by EDS. Wipro has won a $27 million five-year contract. Automotive revenues currently account for nearly 35 per cent of Wipro’s $180 million revenues in the manufacturing vertical.

 

Macroeconomic Indicators

Table 1 : Index Numbers of Industrial Production (1993-94 =100)

Table 2 : Production in Infrastructure Industries (Physical Output Series)

Table 3: Procurment, Offtake and Stock of foodgrains

Table 4: Index Numbers of  Wholesale Prices (1993-94 = 100)

Table 5 : Cost of Living Indices

Table 6 : Budgetary Position of Government of India

Table 7 : Government Borrowing Programmes and Performance

Table 8 : Scheduled Commercial Banks - Business in India  

Table 9 : Money Stock : components and Sources

Table 10 : Reserve Money : Components and Sources

Table 11 : Average Daily Turnover in Call Money Market

Table 12 : Assistance Sanctioned and Disbursed by All-India Financial Institutions

Table 13 : Capital Market

Table 14 : Foreign Trade

Table 15 : India's Overall Balance of Payments

Table 16 : Foreign Investment Inflows  
Table 17 : Foreign Collaboration Approvals (Route-Wise)
Table 18 : Year-Wise (Route-Wise) Actual Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI/NRI)

Table 19 : NRI Deposits - Outstandings

Table 20 : Foreign Exchange Reserves

Table 21 : Indices REER and NEER of the Indian Rupee

Table 22 : Turnover in Foreign Exchange Market  
Table 23 : India's Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity [As reported under the IMFs special data dissemination standards (SDDS)
Table 24 : Settlement Volume and Netting Factor for Government Securities Transactions Settled at CCIL - Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Basis.
Table 25 : Inter-Catasegory Distribution of All Types of Trade in Government Securities Settled at CCIL (With Market Share in Respective Trade Types) 
Table 26 : Category-wise Market Share in Settlement Volume of Government Securities Transactions (in Per Cent)
Table 27 : Settlement Volume and Netting Factor for Total Forex Transactions Settled at CCIL - Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Basis. 
Table 28 : Inter-Category Distribution of Total Foreign Exchange Transactions Settled at CCIL (With Market Share in Respective Trade Types) 

 

Memorandum Items

CSO's Quarterly Estimates of GDP For 1996-97 To 2004-05  

GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity  

India's Overall Balance of Payments  

*These statistics and the accompanying review are a product arising from the work undertaken under the joint ICICI research centre.org-EPWRF Data Base Project.

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