Current Economic Statistics and Review For the Week Ended September 15

National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) has been conducting a number of surveys on employment and unemployment starting with NSS 9^th round (May-September 1955).

The Planning Commission in the year 1970 set up an “ Expert Committee on Unemployment Estimates”, popularly known as Dantwala Committee for giving a firm conceptual framework for conducting such surveys.. This committee reviewed the already conducted surveys and the indicators generated from such surveys. Based on concepts and definitions recommended by this committee, the first quinquennial survey on employment and unemployment was conducted in the 27^th round of NSS (September 1972 – October 1973 ). After the 27^th round, seven comprehensive quinquennial surveys on employment and unemployment situation in India have been carried out by the NSSO prior with the latest quinquennial survey being for the year 2004-05. These have been carried out during 32^nd round (July 1977 – June 1978), 38^th round (January – December 1983), 43^rd round ( July 1987 – June 1988 ), 50^th round (July 1993 – June 1994 ), 55^th round (July 1999 – June 2000), and now the 61 st round ( July 2004 – June 2005) in which concepts, definitions and procedure followed have been primarily as per the recommendations of the Dantwala Committee.

In addition to these quinquennial surveys , NSSO has also been regularly collecting information on certain key items on employment and unemployment from a limited set of households in each round since 1989-90 (NSS 45^th round) along side household expenditure inquiry; these are widely known as thin sample surveys..

Some Definitions

Gainful activity or work is the activity pursued for pay, profit or family gain or in other words, activity which adds value to national product. Normally, it is an activity which results in production of goods and services for exchange. In case of agriculture, production used for self consumption , whether full or in part , and that which does not go for sale, are also considered gainful activity. Execution of household chores or social commitments are activities that are not considered gainful activities. The activities such as prostitution, begging, etc., which may result in earnings, are by convention, not considered gainful.

Workers (or employed) are persons engaged in any gainful activity. They are considered as employed.

Unemployed persons are those who are seeking or available for work but not in gainful activity are considered unemployed.

Not in labour force: Persons who are neither working nor seeking or available for work are considered to be engaged in non-gainful activities or not in labour force. Students, infirm and disabled persons, prostitutes, infants, rentiers, pensioners and those living in alms are some examples of persons who are not in labour force.

Employment and Unemployment Situation in India

Population Household Characteristics

During 2004-05, about 972 million people stayed in 207 million households in India . Out of this, 724 million people stayed in 150 million rural households and 248 million people lived in 57 million urban households in India . In other words, 75 per cent of population still lived in rural India as against 25 per cent population liveing in urban areas.

It can be seen from the Table 1 that the country’s sex-ratio has been fluctuating but generally the number fell from 959 in 1977-78, to 944 in 1993-94; thereafter the number of female per 1000 males rose to 959 by 1999-00 and further to 962 by 2004-05 in rural India . More or less the same trend was seen in case of urban areas also with sex ratio 920 in 2004-05 from a low of 904 in 1977-78. Similarly, there is a fall in the rural as well as urban household size over the years.

While rural household size shrank from 5.2 in 1977-78 to 4.8 in 2004-05, the urban area witnessed a fall from 4.9 to 4.3 during the 27 years period or so.

Table 1: Average household size and sex ratio i.e. females per 1000 males - All-India
NSS	Year	Period	Rural		Urban
Round			Household	Sex-Ratio	Household	Sex-Ratio
No			Size		Size
61	2004-05	July-June	4.8	962	4.3	920
55	1999-00	July-June	5.0	959	4.5	915
50	1993-94	July-June	4.9	944	4.4	905
43	1987-88	July-June	5.1	948	4.7	912
38	1983	Jan-Dec	5.1	963	4.7	905
32	1977-78	July-June	5.2	959	4.9	904
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

Household Type

Nature and type of work from which a household derive its major income is an important indicator of the activity pattern of its members. Table 2 reveals that the proportion of the self employed in rural areas were on the decline for 25 years from 1977-78 to 1999-2000; in the latest period there has been a sudden rise. During 2004-05, members of about 52 per cent of the rural households forming 57 per cent of the rural population took recourse to self-employment as against 46 per cent of rural households forming about 51 per cent of rural population in 1999-2000. About 35 per cent of rural population belonging to 37 per cent of rural household belonged to rural labour in 2004-05 as against 38 per cent of rural population consisting of 40 per cent of the rural population in 1999-2000.

Table 2 : Per cent distribution of households and population by household type
	1977-78	1983	1987-88	1993-94	1999-00	2004-05
Rural-Households
Self-employed	56.7	52.4	50.0	50.5	46.1	51.7
Agriculture	46.1	40.7	37.7	37.8	32.7	35.9
Non-agriculture	10.6	11.7	12.3	12.7	13.4	15.8
Rural Labour	36.8	37.3	39.7	38.3	40.2	36.7
Agriculture	29.9	30.7	30.7	30.3	32.2	25.8
Other Labour	6.9	6.6	9.0	8.0	8.0	10.9
Others	6.5	10.3	10.1	11.2	13.7	11.6
Rural-Population
Self-employed	na	57.9	55.6	55.4	50.9	56.5
Agriculture	na	46.1	42.8	42.4	37.1	39.8
Non-agriculture	na	11.8	12.8	13.1	13.9	16.7
Rural Labour	na	33.8	36.2	35.0	37.6	34.6
Agriculture	na	27.7	27.8	27.5	30.1	24.1
Other Labour	na	6.1	8.4	7.5	7.6	10.6
Others	na	8.3	8.1	9.5	11.4	8.8

Urban-Households
Self-employed	33.5	32.7	33.5	33.7	34.4	37.5
Others	66.5	67.3	66.2	66.3	65.4	62.5
Regular wage/Salaried	na	na	44.2	43.4	41.7	41.3
Casual Labour	na	na	12.7	13.2	14.0	11.8
Others	na	na	9.3	9.7	9.7	9.4
Urban-Population
Self-employed	na	38.5	38.9	38.8	39.3	43.3
Others	na	61.5	60.9	61.2	60.6	56.6
Regular wage/Salaried	na	na	43.6	42.8	40.2	39.6
Casual Labour	na	na	12.1	12.9	14.1	11.8
Others	na	na	5.2	5.5	6.3	5.2
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

In urban areas, the self-employed population forms about 43 per cent of the population and 38 per cent of the households population depend upon regular wages during 2004-05 as against 39 per cent of population and 34 percent of the households in 1999-2000. There has been a fall in the share of casual labour households and population, from 14.0 per cent households to 11.8 per cent of households and from 14.1 per cent urban population to 11.8 per cent urban population between 1999-2000 and 2004-05.

Age Distribution of Population

Age is one of the key characteristic to be linked with employment and unemployment indicators for any in-depth analysis. Between 1983 and 2004-05, there has been a is a striking decline in the share of the youngest age group (0-4 years) and also 5-14 year age group among all the categories of population and a corresponding increase in all other age groups, especially in the 15 to 29 years age group, the so called youth population ready for employment (Table 3).

Table 3: Age wise distribution of Population
NSS	Year	Period	Age-Group
Round			0-4	5-14	15-29	30-59	15-59	60&
No								Above
	*Rural-Male*
61	2004-05	July-June	11.1	25.3	25.3	31.0	56.3	7.1
55	1999-00	July-June	11.7	26.5	25.1	29.6	54.7	7.0
50	1993-94	July-June	12.9	25.2	25.7	29.4	55.1	6.8
43	1987-88	July-June	13.3	27.4	25.2	27.6	52.8	6.5
38	1983	Jan-Dec	13.8	28.2	24.4	27.0	51.4	6.6

	*Rural-Female*
61	2004-05	July-June	11.0	23.3	25.8	32.4	58.2	7.5
55	1999-00	July-June	11.9	24.6	25.8	30.4	56.2	7.2
50	1993-94	July-June	12.7	23.3	26.6	30.5	57.1	6.9
43	1987-88	July-June	13.1	25.1	26.5	28.6	55.1	6.6
38	1983	Jan-Dec	13.6	26.1	25.5	28.0	53.5	6.8
	*Urban-Male*
61	2004-05	July-June	8.7	20.0	30.0	34.7	64.7	6.4
55	1999-00	July-June	9.3	22.5	29.1	33.2	62.3	5.8
50	1993-94	July-June	10.5	22.7	29.2	32.1	61.3	5.5
43	1987-88	July-June	11.5	23.9	29.3	29.8	59.1	5.4
38	1983	Jan-Dec	11.9	24.7	29.4	28.7	58.1	5.2
	*Urban-Female*
61	2004-05	July-June	8.5	20.3	28.4	35.5	64.7	7.6
55	1999-00	July-June	9.2	22.3	28.6	32.8	62.3	7.0
50	1993-94	July-June	10.6	22.5	29.1	31.4	61.3	6.4
43	1987-88	July-June	11.7	23.9	29.2	29.0	59.1	6.1
38	1983	Jan-Dec	12.4	24.6	29.1	27.5	58.1	6.3
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

Literacy Rate of Population

Educational attainment determines the quality of population and one’s employment prospects. It may be mentioned here that from the 1993-94 survey, a person is considered as literate if he is able to read and write a simple message in any language with understanding. The word understanding was not there before the 1993-94 (50^th round) survey. Over the period 1977-78 to 2004-05, there has been considerable improvement in the literacy rate. The increase in female literacy during the period is relatively more than that of males (Table 4 ).

Table 4: Literacy Rate of Population
NSS	Year	Period	Rural		Urban
Round			Male	Female	Male	Female
No
61	2004-05	July-June	63.6	45.0	80.5	69.3
55	1999-00	July-June	58.8	38.5	78.4	65.7
50	1993-94	July-June	54.5	32.1	75.9	61.6
43	1987-88	July-June	48.4	26.0	71.9	55.6
38	1983	Jan-Dec	44.9	21.9	69.3	51.5
32	1977-78	July-June	41.5	18.4	68.8	50.0
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

As can be seen from the Table 4 the share of the illiterate among all the categories registered substantial decline. On the hand, the proportion of the educated, i.e. secondary and above has increased between 1977-78 and 2004-05 among all categories of the population. In rural India, while the proportion of male increased by 8.2 percentage points between 1977-78 and 2004-05, that of the female rose by 5.3 percentage points during the same period (Table 5).

Table 5 : Percentage distribution of Population by General Educational Level
NSS	Year	Period	Educational Level
Round			Not	Upto	Middle	Secondary
No			literate	Primary		& above
	*Rural-Male*
61	2004-05	July-June	36.4	36.1	14.0	13.4
55	1999-00	July-June	41.2	34.2	12.6	11.7
50	1993-94	July-June	45.5	33.7	10.9	9.8
43	1987-88	July-June	51.6	32.5	9.0	6.9
38	1983	Jan-Dec	55.0	31.2	8.5	5.2
	*Rural-Female*
61	2004-05	July-June	55.0	29.3	8.9	6.7
55	1999-00	July-June	61.5	26.0	7.5	5.0
50	1993-94	July-June	67.9	23.0	5.6	3.4
43	1987-88	July-June	74.0	19.9	3.9	2.2
38	1983	Jan-Dec	78.0	17.3	3.2	1.4
	*Urban-Male*
61	2004-05	July-June	19.5	30.0	16.0	34.5
55	1999-00	July-June	21.6	30.9	15.6	31.7
50	1993-94	July-June	24.1	33.2	14.5	28.1
43	1987-88	July-June	27.7	35.7	13.3	22.9
38	1983	Jan-Dec	30.5	34.4	14.5	20.4
	*Urban-Female*
61	2004-05	July-June	30.7	29.4	14.4	25.5
55	1999-00	July-June	34.3	29.9	13.2	22.5
50	1993-94	July-June	38.4	31.0	11.8	18.7
43	1987-88	July-June	44.1	31.9	9.7	14.0
38	1983	Jan-Dec	48.3	30.3	10.2	11.0
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

In urban areas, the proportion of literate males have registered an increase of 14.1 percentage points that of urban female also kept pace with an increase of 14.5 percentage points during the 27-year period.

III

Labour Force Participation

A defined above, labour force, i.e., the economically active population refers to the population which supplies or seeks to supply labour for production and therefore, includes both the employed and the unemployed persons. The Dantwala Committee referred to at the outset, made a pioneering contribution to the subject of measuring employment and unemployment in India , with due recognition given to the process of under-employment and disguised employment in India .

1. Usual status: This method measures the persons who had a relatively longer period of the year either worked or were looking for works and also those persons from among the remaining population who had worked at least for some time with some regularity. Thus, on the basis of usual status (us), two sets of data can be obtained – one set based on principal status only (ps) and the other set considering both principal and subsidiary status (ss), that is, ps+ss.

2. Current weekly status (cws): This measures the number of persons employed or looking for work on average in a week.

Labour force participation rate (LFPR) is thus defined as the number of persons/person days in the labour force per 1000 persons/person-days, available for work.

Usual status approach

As per Usual status approach for all workers, i.e. ps+ss about 56 per cent of rural males and 33 per cent of rural females were usually available for employment during 2004-05. In urban areas, the proportions were 57 and 18 per cent, respectively. Between 1993-94 – 1999-00, LFPRs for males decreased by 2.1 percentage points in rural areas but remained stable in urban areas. But , in the next five years i.e. between 1999-00 to 2004-05, they increased by 1.7 percentage points in rural areas and 2.8 percentage points in urban areas. On the other hand, in case of rural females LFPRs, after declining by 2.8 percentage points in the first six years regain the lost ground in the next five years by increasing by 3.1 percentage points. In urban areas , LFPRs for females first declined by 1.8 percentage points once again only to reclaim the lost ground by going up by 3.1 percentage points in the next five years ending 2004-05 (Table 6).

Table 6 : Labour force participation rate (LFPR)
NSS	Year	Period	Usual Status
Round			ps	all (ps+ss)	cws	cds
No
	*Rural-Male*
61	2004-05	July-June	54.6	55.5	54.5	53.1
55	1999-00	July-June	53.3	54.0	53.1	51.5
50	1993-94	July-June	54.9	56.1	54.7	53.4
43	1987-88	July-June	53.2	54.9	52.6	52.5
38	1983	Jan-Dec	53.1	55.5	53.1	52.1
	*Rural-Female*
61	2004-05	July-June	24.9	33.3	28.7	23.7
55	1999-00	July-June	23.5	30.2	26.3	22.0
50	1993-94	July-June	23.7	33.0	27.6	23.2
43	1987-88	July-June	25.4	33.1	22.9	22.3
38	1983	Jan-Dec	25.2	34.2	23.7	21.8
	*Urban-Male*
61	2000-05	July-June	56.6	57.0	56.6	56.1
55	1999-00	July-June	53.9	54.2	53.9	52.8
50	1993-94	July-June	53.8	54.3	53.8	53.2
43	1987-88	July-June	52.8	53.4	52.8	52.3
38	1983	Jan-Dec	53.1	53.9	52.8	52.1
	*Urban-Female*
61	2000-05	July-June	14.8	17.8	16.8	15.0
55	1999-00	July-June	12.6	14.7	13.8	12.3
50	1993-94	July-June	13.2	16.5	15.2	13.2
43	1987-88	July-June	12.9	16.2	13.1	12.5
38	1983	Jan-Dec	12.9	15.9	12.8	12.0
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

Current weekly status approach

Compared to LFPRs of the current weekly statuses, the usual status LFPRs for all were higher in both the sectors and more so for females mainly due to usually employed females withdrawing from the labour force when there is no work during some part of the year rather than reporting themselves as unemployed in the current weekly status. Interestingly, the difference is considerably higher for rural females where seasonality in work, especially in agriculture work, is substantially higher.

Gender differences in Labour force

Table 7 reveals that whatever approach one follows, females are far outnumbered by males in the labour force; this is more blatant especially in urban areas. In the recent period, there has been a distinct improvement in the sex ratio in the labour force; this is particularly true of rural areas reflecting more females rather than males getting engaged in subsidiary economic activities.

Table 7 : Sex Ratio of labour force (Females Per 1000 Males)
NSS	Year	Period	Usual Status
Round			ps	all (ps+ss)	cws	cds
No
	*Rural*
61	2004-05	July-June	439	577	506	429
55	1999-00	July-June	422	536	474	410
	*Urban*
61	2004-05	July-June	241	287	272	247
55	1999-00	July-June	214	249	234	213
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

Work Force Participation Rates (WFPRs) or Worker Population Ratio (WPR) is defined as the number of persons/person days employed per thousand persons/person days (in the population). This ratio is employed in the following discussion on the incidence of employment.

While Labour Force Participation Rates (LFPRs) measure the number of persons available for work in the total population, the Work Force Participation Rates (WFPRs) gauges the number of persons actually engaged in economic activities in the total population.

Usually employed

Table 8 depicts worker population ratios (WPRs) for usual status workers, viz, (a) usual principal status workers, i.e. workers according to usual status (ps), and (b) usual subsidiary status workers, i.e. persons working only in a subsidiary status (ss) and also total of usual principal and subsidiary workers, i.e. (ps+ss). This measure of total workers is commonly known as usually employed or all workers. The first category pertains to those who have more or less stable employment. It can been seen that out of 42 per cent of the persons usually employed in 2004-05 (ps+ss), about 55 per cent are males and 29 per cent are females.

Table 8: Number of Persons Employed per 1000 Persons according to Usual Status
Worker Population Ratios (WPRs) also called Work Force Participation Rates WFPRs)
	Category	Usually Employed
Round No	of workers	Rural			Urban			All
		Male	Female	Person	Male	Female	Person	Male	Female	Person
61	ps	535	242	391	541	135	346	536	215	380
(2004-05)	ss	11	85	48	8	31	19	11	72	40
	All (ps+ss)	546	327	439	549	166	365	547	287	420
55	ps	522	231	380	513	117	324	520	203	365
(1999-00)	ss	9	68	37	5	22	13	7	56	32
	All (ps+ss)	531	299	417	518	139	337	527	259	397
50	ps	538	234	390	513	121	327	532	206	375
(1993-94)	ss	15	94	54	8	34	20	13	80	45
	All (ps+ss)	553	328	444	521	155	347	545	286	420
43	ps	517	245	385	496	118	315	512	217	369
(1987-88)	ss	22	78	49	10	34	22	19	68	43
	All (ps+ss)	539	323	434	506	152	337	531	285	412
38	ps	528	248	391	500	120	320	521	218	374
{1983)	ss	19	92	54	12	31	20	17	78	46
	All (ps+ss)	547	340	445	512	151	340	538	216	420
32	ps	537	248	398	497	123	319	529	224	371
(1977-78)	ss	15	83	49	11	33	22	14	73	52
	All (ps+ss)	552	331	444	508	156	341	543	297	423
27	All (ps+ss)	545	318	*	501	134	*	*	*	*
(1972-73)	* proportion not derived
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

The WPR was the same for males in both rural and urban areas. However, rural females with 33 per cent WPR outstrip urban females with 17 per cent WPR. Both in rural and urban areas, the WPRs according to usual subsidiary status (ss) are much higher for females (8.5 per cent and 3.1 per cent) than males (1.1 per cent and 0.8 per cent) confirming the trend depicted in LFPR discussed above. .

It can be seen from Table 8 that there is an overall fall in WFPR from 42 per cent in 1993-94 to 39.7 per cent in 1999-00 may be due to overall recession in the economy during the period. This reflected the significant structural changes that the Indian economy has undergone following the reform measures of the 1990s. However, thereafter in the next five years this ratio has gained the lost ground by 2004-05 with the corporates especially manufacturing and service industries doing well. The same trend was witnessed among rural and urban areas as well as amongst male and female workers

Usual status approach adopted for classification of the population is unable to capture the changes in the activity pattern caused by seasonal fluctuations. Estimates obtained by adopting the current weekly and current daily status overcome this lacunae of usual status by capturing the overall effect caused by the intermittent changes in the activity pattern during the year. Current daily status (cds) reflects the changes that take place even during a week. Current weekly status (cws) gives a general picture of employment in a period of 7 days and current daily status gives employment picture of a day. The difference between the cws and cds rates indicates the underemployment of those who had some employment in the week.

It may be noted that the difference between the WPRs according to cws and cds is quite substantial in the rural areas, particularly among female workers (5.9 percentage points) in 2004-05 as against male workers (3.6 percentage points) thereby confirming that underemployment is a normal and distinct phenomenon in rural area. However, underemployment in urban areas is not much visible as the difference between cws and cds for both males and females were less than two percentage points in 2004-05 (see Table 9).

Table 9: Number of Persons Employed per 1000 Persons according to Current Weekly and Current Daily Status
NSS	Year	Period	Current Weekly Status (CWS)				Current Daily Status (CDS)
Round			Rural		Urban		Rural		Urban
No			Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female	Male	Female
61	2004-05	July-June	524	275	537	152	488	216	519	133
55	1999-00	July-June	510	253	509	128	478	204	490	111
50	1993-94	July-June	531	267	511	139	504	219	496	120
43	1987-88	July-June	504	220	492	119	501	207	477	110
38	1983	Jan-Dec	511	227	492	118	482	198	473	106
32	1977.78	July-June	519	232	490	125	488	194	472	109
27	1972-73	July-June	530	277	491	123	503	231	477	108
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

Regional Disparities in the Incidence of Employment

Tables 10 and 11 depict WPRs for states and union territories separately for males and females. Among the major states, in 2004-05, the rural male WPR was the highest in Karnataka at 62.3 per cent, and among union territories A & N island had the highest WPR ratio at 63.2 per cent in 2004-05. This was followed by Andhra Pradesh (61 per cent), Tamil Nadu (60 per cent)., Gujarat (59 per cent) and Orissa (59 per cent). West Bengal and Maharashtra also have a WPR of 57 per cent each, that is, well above the all-India level of 55 per cent. All other states have WPRs higher than the average WPR for all India .

Table 10: Number of employed per 1000 persons according to Usual Status taking both pricipal and subsidiary status (ps+ss)
State/Uts	Male
	2004-05		1999-00		1987-88
	Rural	Urban	Rural	Urban	Rural	Urban
Andhra Pradesh	605	560	605	511	595	503
Arunachal Pradesh	500	461	422	399	524	535
Assam	551	551	529	522	514	512
Bihar	477	452	492	432	500	448
Chattisgarh	565	529
Delhi	516	535	520	528	426	510
Goa	524	534	539	498	521	474
Gujarat	593	578	584	536	559	510
Haryana	522	511	475	506	475	553
Himachal Pradesh	555	619	536	499	539	466
Jammu and Kashmir	552	526	548	478	535	531
Jharkhand	535	472
Karnataka	623	576	595	545	568	494
Kerala	559	547	553	558	506	530
Madhya Pradesh	544	525	536	488	546	480
Maharashtra	566	560	531	532	546	496
Manipur	524	456	495	445	437	375
Meghalaya	572	454	557	393	583	517
Mizoram	594	484	555	471	591	509
Nagaland	549	457	518	393	no survey	585
Orissa	586	504	551	475	566	493
Punjab	549	572	530	549	560	540
Rajasthan	510	508	500	486	512	471
Sikkim	554	545	502	519	487	487
Tamil Nadu	597	593	494	563	587	558
Tripura	549	504	504	494	519	463
Uttranchal	523	519
Uttar Pradesh	496	524	481	490	518	489
West Bengal	574	595	534	567	550	539
A & N Island	632	578	547	632	536	547
Chandigarh	602	512	784	547	611	497
D & N Haveli	547	689	582	656	566	no urban
Daman & Diu	591	652	655	549	incl. In Goa
Lakshadweep	611	436	497	432	437	363
Pondicherry	569	536	560	555	518	495
All-India	546	549	531	518	539	506
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

As against the above, this on the other side Bihar with 48 per cent, UP with 50 per cent and Rajasthan with 51 per cent is the lowest three employed states. These states were showing a decline in the WPR ratios since 1987-88.

Table 11: Number of employed per 1000 persons according to Usual Status taking both principal and subsidiary status
State/Uts	Female
	2004-05		1999-00		1987-88
	Rural	Urban	Rural	Urban	Rural	Urban
Andhra Pradesh	483	224	478	178	470	215
Arunachal Pradesh	410	148	310	100	305	142
Assam	209	109	151	112	162	84
Bihar	138	65	173	75	193	79
Chattisgarh	454	181
Delhi	47	88	29	105	51	90
Goa	188	188	181	106	239	145
Gujarat	427	151	413	135	381	112
Haryana	317	132	202	98	297	123
Himachal Pradesh	506	241	471	130	480	156
Jammu and Kashmir	267	112	327	62	347	145
Jharkhand	313	134
Karnataka	459	181	380	178	377	196
Kerala	256	200	238	203	286	198
Madhya Pradesh	366	154	382	134	410	144
Maharashtra	474	190	434	137	462	159
Manipur	351	221	253	211	191	123
Meghalaya	478	303	418	197	512	352
Mizoram	441	281	440	259	409	358
Nagaland	504	257	441	199	no survey	65
Orissa	322	148	299	145	276	125
Punjab	322	133	280	125	317	123
Rajasthan	407	182	388	138	450	191
Sikkim	318	168	241	200	298	117
Tamil Nadu	461	241	430	215	461	227
Tripura	85	100	73	75	136	91
Uttranchal	427	127
Uttar Pradesh	240	117	201	94	219	94
West Bengal	178	155	160	117	196	125
A & N Island	243	155	180	206	177	112
Chandigarh	54	142	128	136	122	192
D & N Haveli	478	194	354	112	490	no urban
Daman & Diu	168	225	300	186	incl. In Goa
Lakshadweep	50	108	115	179	110	154
Pondicherry	361	154	287	169	340	186
All-India	327	166	299	139	323	152
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

Among urban males the WPR was above all- India level of 55 per cent in 9 states with 62 per cent in Himachal Pradesh followed by West Bengal and Tamil Nadu with 60 and 59 per cent of WPR respectively. In the lower spectrum, Bihar along with north eastern states like Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland and Mizoram form lower than 50 per cent WPR states.

Among rural females, Himachal Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra , Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Chhattisgarh, reported higher WPRs than all-India WPRs of 33 per cent. Assam , Bihar, Goa, Haryana , Jammu and Kashmir , Jharkhand, Kerala, Orissa, Punjab , Sikkim , Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal , reported lower WPRs than that of all-India.

Among urban females a few major states, namely, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh, Andhra Prdesh and Kerala, reported higher than all-India average WPRs.

Age Compositions of the Usually Employed

Table 12 presents percentage distribution of the usually employed by age group for all-India for all workers (ps+ss) from 38^th round of NSSO surveys onwards. It can be seen that there was substantial increase in the employment of youth i.e. the people in the age group of 15-29 years between 1983 and 1999-2000, both in rural and urban ares and both amongst males and females. In the latest quienquennium there has however, been a change. The participation rte for the youth has declined from 35 per cent to 34.4 per cent for rural males and from 34.5 per cent to 32.3 per cent for rural females, reflecting the increased interest taken by girls in higher education.

Table 12 : Age wise distribution of usually employed for all (ps+ss) workers
NSS	Year	Period	Age-Group
Round			5-14	15-29	30-59	15-59	60&Above
No
	*Rural-Male*
61	2004-05	July-June	1.7	34.4	55.7	90.1	8.3
55	1999-00	July-June	2.4	35.0	54.1	89.1	8.5
50	1993-94	July-June	3.3	36.1	52.0	88.1	8.6
43	1987-88	July-June	27.4	25.2	27.6	52.8	6.5
38	1983	Jan-Dec	28.2	24.4	27.0	51.4	6.6
	*Rural-Female*
61	2004-05	July-June	2.4	32.3	59.3	91.3	5.8
55	1999-00	July-June	4.0	34.5	56.1	90.5	5.3
50	1993-94	July-June	5.1	36.3	53.5	89.8	5.1
43	1987-88	July-June	25.1	26.5	28.6	55.1	6.6
38	1983	Jan-Dec	26.1	25.5	28.0	53.5	6.8
	*Urban-Male*
61	2004-05	July-June	0.9	34.1	60.7	94.8	4.3
55	1999-00	July-June	1.2	33.4	61.0	94.4	4.5
50	1993-94	July-June	1.6	34.7	59.1	93.8	4.7
43	1987-88	July-June	23.9	29.3	29.8	59.1	5.4
38	1983	Jan-Dec	24.7	29.4	28.7	58.1	5.2

	*Urban-Female*

61	2004-05	July-June	2.4	31.5	61.7	93.2	4.6
55	1999-00	July-June	3.1	30.9	61.3	92.2	4.8
50	1993-94	July-June	3.6	32.6	59.0	91.6	4.7
43	1987-88	July-June	23.9	29.2	29.0	58.2	6.1
38	1983	Jan-Dec	24.6	29.1	27.3	56.4	6.3
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

Distribution of Usually Employed by Status of Employment

Employed persons are categorized into three broad groups according to their status of employment. These broad groups are (i) self employed; (ii) regular employees; and (iii) casual labour.

Table 13 : Percent distribution of usually employed by category of
Employment for usually employed (ps+ss)
NSS	Year	Period	Self	Regular	Casual
Round			Employed	Employee	Labour
No
	*Rural-Male*
61	2004-05	July-June	58.1	9.0	32.9
55	1999-00	July-June	55.0	8.8	36.2
50	1993-94	July-June	57.7	8.5	33.8
43	1987-88	July-June	58.6	10.0	31.4
38	1983	Jan-Dec	60.5	10.3	29.2
	*Rural-Female*
61	2004-05	July-June	63.7	3.7	32.6
55	1999-00	July-June	57.3	3.1	39.6
50	1993-94	July-June	58.6	2.7	38.7
43	1987-88	July-June	60.8	3.7	35.5
38	1983	Jan-Dec	61.9	2.8	35.3
	*Urban-Male*
61	2004-05	July-June	44.8	40.6	14.6
55	1999-00	July-June	41.5	41.7	16.8
50	1993-94	July-June	41.7	42.0	16.3
43	1987-88	July-June	41.7	43.7	14.6
38	1983	Jan-Dec	40.9	43.7	15.4
	*Urban-Female*
61	2004-05	July-June	47.7	35.6	16.7
55	1999-00	July-June	45.3	33.3	21.4
50	1993-94	July-June	45.8	28.4	25.8
43	1987-88	July-June	47.1	27.5	25.4
38	1983	Jan-Dec	45.8	25.8	28.4
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

VII

Industrial Distribution of the Usually Employed

Table 14 displays the distribution of usually employed by industry for all workers (ps+ss) NIC 1998 has been used for industry classification . It may be noted that the changes in the activity classification across different rounds at one-digit level of industry is nominal and thus, comparison can fairly be made over the rounds at the one-digit level. This fact may be taken into account in measuring the changes of workforce at one-digit level over different rounds.

Rural Areas: In rural India , among all usually employed, about 67 per cent of males and 83 per cent of females were engaged in the agricultural sector in 2004-05. This proportion gradually fell from 81 per cent in 1977-78 to 71 per cent by 1999-00 and then to 67 per cent in 2004-05. On the other hand, in the case of female workers, the proportion engaged in agriculture activities decreased from 88 per cent in 1977-78 to 83 per cent in 2004-05 Over the years, except mining and electricity, all other industrial sectors such as manufacturing, construction, trade, hotels etc and transport, storage and communication, employed more female workers than males.

Urban Areas: In urban India , trade, hotels and restaurants engaged 28 per cent of male workers while manufacturing and services sectors accounted for nearly 24 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively, of the usually employed males during 2004-05. One striking point of note is that over the years, both manufacturing and services sector shares have been declining and the construction and trade, hotels and restaurant sectors were the gainers. On the other hand, urban females services sector accounted for the highest proportion of 36 percent of the usually employed, followed by manufacturing with 28 per cent and agriculture (18 per cent).

Table 13: Percentage Distribution of Gainfully Employed Persons by Industry
Round Number	Agriculture	Mining etc.	Manufac-	Construct-	Electricity	Trade	Transport	Other
Round Number	etc.		turing	Ion		Hotel	Storage	Services
						Etc.	etc.	etc.
Rural - Males
61	66.5	0.6	7.9	6.8	0.2	8.3	3.8	5.9
55	71.4	0.6	7.3	4.5	0.2	6.8	3.2	6.1
50	74.1	0.7	7.0	3.2	0.3	5.5	2.2	7.0
43	74.5	0.7	7.4	3.7	0.3	5.1	2.0	6.2
38	77.5	0.6	7.0	2.2	0.2	4.4	1.7	6.1
32	80.6	0.5	6.4	1.7	0.2	4.0	1.2	5.3
27	83.2	0.4	5.7	2.6	0.1	3.1	1.0	4.7
Urban - Males
61	6.1	0.9	23.5	9.2	0.8	28.0	10.7	20.8
55	6.6	0.9	22.4	8.7	0.8	29.4	10.4	21.0
50	9.0	1.3	23.5	6.9	1.2	21.9	9.7	26.4
43	9.1	1.3	25.7	5.8	1.2	21.5	9.7	25.2
38	10.3	1.2	26.8	5.1	1.1	20.3	9.9	24.8
32	10.6	0.9	27.6	4.2	1.1	21.6	9.8	24.3
27	10.7	1.0	26.9	4.3	0.8	20.1	9.0	27.0
Rural - Females
61	83.3	0.3	8.4	1.5	0.0	2.5	0.2	3.9
55	85.4	0.3	7.6	1.1	0.0	2.0	0.1	3.7
50	86.2	0.4	7.0	0.9	0.0	2.1	0.1	3.4
43	84.7	0.4	6.9	2.7	0.0	2.1	0.1	3.0
38	87.5	0.3	6.4	0.7	0.0	1.9	0.1	2.8
32	88.1	0.2	5.9	0.6	0.0	2.0	0.1	3.0
27	89.7	0.2	4.7	1.1	0.0	1.5	0.0	2.8
Urban-Females
61	18.1	0.2	28.2	3.8	0.2	12.2	1.4	35.9
55	17.7	0.4	24.0	4.8	0.2	16.9	1.8	34.2
50	24.7	0.6	24.1	4.1	0.3	10.0	1.3	35.0
43	29.4	0.8	27.0	3.7	0.2	9.8	0.9	27.8
38	31.0	0.6	26.7	3.1	0.2	9.5	1.5	26.6
32	31.9	0.5	29.6	2.2	0.1	8.7	1.0	26.0
27	32.8	0.7	25.0	3.3	0.1	9.4	0.9	27.0
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

The estimates of the unemployed also are obtained following the three different approaches. These are :

(i) Number of persons usually unemployed based on usual status approach, which indicates the magnitude of the persons unemployed for a relatively longer period during the reference period of 365 days; it is an indicator of the chronically unemployed. However, some may be working in a subsidiary capacity. Hence one can, get another estimate of the unemployed excluding those employed in a subsidiary capacity during the reference period. The former is called usually unemployed according to principal status and the latter the usually unemployed excluding the subsidiary workers or us adjusted, which would conceptually lower than the first.

(ii) Number of persons unemployed on an average in a week based on the weekly status approach. While this estimate includes chronic unemployment, it also throws some light on the intermittent unemployment caused by seasonal fluctuations in the labour market.

(iii)Number of person-days unemployed on an average during the reference period of seven days preceding the date of survey based on the daily status approach. This gives average level of unemployment on a day during the survey year. It again captures three aspects of unemployment.

Unemployment rate ( UR ) is defined as the number of persons unemployed per thousand persons in the labour force which includes both employed and unemployed. As it gives the unutilized portion of the labour force, this is a more refined indicator of the unemployment situation in a population than the proportion of unemployed, which is merely the number of the unemployed per thousand persons in the population as a whole.

Table 14 : Unemployment Rate
Round	Year	Male				Female
		usual	us	cws	cds	usual	us	cws	cds
		status(ps)	(adj.)			status(ps)	(adj.)
	Rural
61	2004-05	21	16	38	80	31	18	42	87
55	1999-00	21	17	39	72	15	10	37	70
50	1993-94	20	14	31	56	13	9	29	56
43	1987-88	28	18	42	46	35	24	44	67
38	1983	21	14	37	75	14	7	43	90
32	1977-78	22	13	36	71	55	20	41	92
27	1972-73	-	12	30	68	-	5	55	112
	Urban
61	2004-05	44	38	52	75	91	69	90	116
55	1999-00	48	45	56	73	71	57	73	94
50	1993-94	54	41	52	67	83	61	79	104
43	1987-88	61	52	66	88	85	62	92	120
38	1983	59	51	67	92	69	49	75	110
32	1977-78	65	54	71	94	178	124	109	145
27	1972-73	-	48	60	80	-	60	92	137
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

i. The overall unemployment rates are not apparently high as compared with many countries’ data, but the situations widely differ.

iv. UR according to cds approach are higher than that according to usual status and cws approaches, which is indicative of the high degree of intermittent unemployment in the economy and absence of regular employment for many workers.

v. UR measures through usual status or (ps+ss) (adjusted) is very low in the rural areas indicating more subsidiary workers.

vi. Unemployment rates in terms of principal status remained almost the same for rural males over 1972-73 to 2004-05.

vii. Unemployment rates for urban males came down from 6.5 per cent in 1977-78 to 4.4 per cent in 2004-05 indicating a fall in unemployment rate of 2.1 percentage points.

viii. Unemployment rates for females in both rural and urban areas declined considerably.

ix. There is no appreciable change in unemployment rate measured in terms of cws for rural or urban males over the years.

x. In case of rural or urban females, there is no definite pattern is discerning according to unemployment on cws approach..

xi. CDS measured unemployment rate reveals that there is an increase in rural unemployment but urban unemployment has recorded a minor decline.

Underemployment is defined as the under-utilization of labour time of the workers.

Visible underemployment is the one in which usually employed do not have work throughout the year due to seasonality in work or their labour time is not fully utilized and are, therefore, unemployed. NSSO measures visible underemployment by cross- classifying persons by (a) their usual and current weekly statuses; (b) their usual and current daily statuses; and (c) their current weekly and current daily statuses.

Table 15 : Per 1000 distribution of usually employed by their broad current weekly status
	Male			Female
	Employed	Un-	Not in	Employed	Un-	Not in
		employed	Labor force		employed	Labor force
Rural
2004-05	958	22	21	833	20	147
1999-00	956	22	22	832	21	148
1993-94	957	15	28	807	14	179
1987-88	931	23	46	675	9	317
Urban
2004-05	977	14	9	914	15	71
1999-00	977	11	12	900	9	91
1993-94	976	11	12	884	9	107
1987-88	967	17	16	768	17	215
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

Underemployment for males in both rural and urban areas are coming down over the years. It has came down from 6.9 per cent in 1987-88 to 4.3 per cent in 2004-05 for rural males, and for urban males the ratios 3.3 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively. In 2004-05, the underemployment is high both in rural and urban areas for females.

Table 16 : Per 1000 distribution of usually employed by their broad current daily status
	Male			Female
	Employed	Un-	Not in	Employed	Un-	Not in
		employed	Labor force		employed	Labor force
Rural
2004-05	893	61	46	657	47	296
1999-00	897	53	51	676	41	283
1993-94	909	40	51	663	30	306
1987-88	926	27	47	638	26	336
Urban
2004-05	945	37	19	798	31	171
1999-00	942	27	31	791	22	187
1993-94	949	27	25	766	24	210
1987-88	938	37	25	716	37	247
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

The activity pattern of the usually employed during different days within the reference week is indicated by the distribution of their days by current daily status.

It can be seen from Table 16 that the utilization of female work time is quite low as compared to males in all the four rounds. During 2004-05, this proportion was estimated at about 66 per cent and 80 per cent for females in rural and urban areas as against 89 and 95 for males in rural and urban India respectively. When work is not available, large portion of female workforce withdraws from labour force rather report themselves as unemployed.

Some persons classified as working during a week might not have had work for the entire week..

The distribution of persons working according to current weekly status by their current daily status would indicate the proportion of person-days on which they have remained without work.

Table 17 : Per 1000 distribution of person days oc CWS employed persons by
	their brod current daily status
	Male			Female
	Employed	Un-	Not in	Employed	Un-	Not in
		employed	Labor force		employed	Labor force
Rural
2004-05	932	42	27	787	33	180
1999-00	936	32	32	808	25	167
1993-94	949	26	24	819	21	158
1987-88	995	4	1	945	26	29
Urban
2004-05	967	23	10	871	18	111
1999-00	963	16	21	873	15	112
1993-94	970	15	13	860	17	122
1987-88	969	22	9	922	29	49
Source : NSSO Survey - 61st Round and earlier surveys

In 2004-05, the percentage of person-days on which persons with some work during the reference week according to weekly status were without work was estimated at about 6.9 for rural males and 21.3 for rural females and 3.3 for urban males and 12.9 for urban females. It can also be seen that between 1987-88 and 2004-05, the unemployed days went up for both males and females in urban areas. However, for both urban males and females the proportion of the unemployed days has been somewhat static during the period. However, both in rural and urban areas when there was no work, a higher proportion of females as compared to males withdrew from the labour force.

VIII

A distinct highlight of the 61 st round of NSSO is the uniform improvement during the latest quinquennium in the employment situation amongst all areas and amongst males and females. Second, the trends towards decreases in self-employement and increases in casualisation, noticed upto 1999-2000, got reversed during the latest quinquennium ending 2004-05. Third, amongst sectors, agriculture has continued to lose in labour absorption. While manufacturing sector shows some improvement in labour absorption, it is the services sector as a whole that has attracted sizeable worker participation.Finally, unemployment rate too has come down in the latest quinquennium.

As per the latest global food outlook report published by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the global wheat production in 2006 is likely to be around 592 million tonnes, 5.3 per cent lower from 2005 and below the average for the past 5 years on account of deterioration in production prospects of most of the wheat exporting countries, pushing up the wheat prices in the international market to levels not witnessed for a decade. This has also led to increased wheat sowing, improving production outlook for 2007 and is expected to have a moderating impact on prices. However, despite reduced supplies and higher prices, world trade has remained at the previous year’s high level mainly due to large wheat imports by India and Brazil .

The central government has extended duty-free wheat imports by the private trade till February 28, 2007 from December 31, 2006. The move is expected to aim at keeping wheat prices under control. Lower wheat production has forced the country to import wheat in 2006. While 55 lakh tonnes are being imported by the State Trading Corporation for the Food Corporation India , the private trade is believed to have imported at least 15-20 lakh tonnes.

The central government is considering the option of buying wheat at a price higher than the minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 750 per 100 kg in the rabi marketing season 2007-08 in order to ensure higher wheat stocks with the government. The government has already reduced wheat allocation for above poverty line households in Delhi and by 25 per cent in rice-consuming states to conserve the food grain’s stocks and is also considering few other proposals like allocation of coarse grains in place of wheat to raise the stock level. Apart from this, to ensure higher procurement, the government has allowed the Food Corp. of India to give an incentive of Rs 10 per 100 kg to farmers who sell wheat directly at the agency’s depots, provided these depots have not been declared as mandis.

The wheat output of the country in the 2006-07 season is likely to be higher at 74 million tonnes against 69.5 million tonnes produced in 2005-06 season on account of better weather conditions and completion of higher proportion of sowings, which is expected to improve the yield. Wheat sowings in 207 lakh hectares have been over till December 8, 2006 as against 169 lakh hectares a year ago.

As per the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, edible oil imports from the country have dropped by 23 per cent in November 2006 to 2.5 lakh tonnes from 3.2 lakh tonnes over the period of one year. Out of the total oil imports, refined oil has accounted for 2 per cent at 5,500 tonnes, while crude oil 2.4 lakh tonnes being 98 per cent. While palm group of oils has a share of 75 per cent with imports standing at 1.8 lakh tonnes, soft oil import has touched 62,250 tonnes forming 25 per cent of the total oil imports.

The US Court of International Trade has given a preliminary ruling that the additional bonding imposed on shrimp imports to the country are contrary to the law and the final decision from the Court of International Trade is expected in 2007. Exporters from six countries, namely India , Thailand , Vietnam , China , Ecuador and Brazil have to execute custom bonds over and above the anti-dumping/countervailing duty to the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) of the US , for their shrimp export operations. India has to pay anti-dumping duty to the tune of 10.17 per cent and execute a bond of the same value, which had adversely affected shrimp exports from the country.

According to Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), Indian milk output is poised to reach 100 million tonnes in 2007 from 98.4 million tonnes in 2006, owing to increasing demand for value-added milk products on the consumer side and extensive dairy development programmes on the supply side. Despite witnessing expansion of over 3 per cent per year, the per capita availability of liquid milk is miserably low at about 220 grams per day, according to experts. Also, despite being the largest producer, the level of integration of the country's dairy sector with the global economy has also been relatively low.

The central government has plans to set up a national bamboo mission to raise production and productivity and promote marketing of bamboo-based products, including handicrafts. About 195 bamboo bazaars would be set up for this purpose. The mission would undertake technological interventions in areas such as scientific bamboo cultivation and development and marketing of bamboo products with the involvement of private companies, cooperatives and self-help groups. An outlay of Rs 568.23 crore has been approved for this mission for five years beginning 2006-07.

Industry

The growth in industrial production during October 2006 has dipped to a low of 6.2 per cent as compared to 9.8 per cent in October 2005 mainly on account of poor performance of the manufacturing sector. This is the lowest growth recorded during the first seven months of the current financial year. Leading the laggard sectors has been manufacturing, which has registered a growth of 6 per cent as against 10.9 per cent in the same month last year with growth in consumer goods sector recording a deceleration to 0.5 per cent during October against 14.6 per cent in the same month of 2005. Capital goods output also has also slowed down considerably to 8.2 per cent against a high of 24.3 per cent in October 2005. The basic goods sector, however, has registered a growth of 9.9 per cent from 7 per cent a year ago . Power generation has gone up by 9.7 per cent against 7.7 per cent last year, while mining output has increased by 4 per cent against a decline in growth of 0.1 per cent in October 2005. For the cumulative period of April-October 2006, overall industrial production has increased by 10.3 per cent against 8.6 per cent in the first seven months of last fiscal year. For the same seven-month period, manufacturing has recorded a 11.2 per cent rise, power generation has increased by 7.1 per cent and mining output has risen by 3.4 per cent against 9.7 per cent, 5.2 per cent and 0.9 per cent, respectively.

The pharmaceutical industry wants only 62 drugs of the 354 drugs (663 formulations) in the National List of Essential Medicine (NLEM), 2003 to come under price monitoring mechanism as reflected in the report of the joint committee on Draft National Pharmaceutical Policy. These 62 drugs are with 241 formulations. The drugs, which the industry does not want to be subjected to price control includes anti-cancer and anti-retroviral, formulations under public health programme, hospital supply products and formulations having MRP below Rs 3 per unit. On these 62 drugs the industry has offered to roll back prices by six months from the date of the new DPCO order. It has also offered an additional 5 per cent reduction on the prices. Meanwhile, NPPA is of the view that the total number of drugs under price control should be 230 – this includes 44 drugs that are both part of the NLEM and DPCO 1995.

The Indian automobile industry has reached a milestone crossing the record 10 million production mark in 11 months of the current calendar year 2006, boosted by a strong economic growth, increased sales, plethora of products and attractive financing schemes. According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), for the period January-November 2006, the total production of vehicles in India has touched 10,031,886 units, with the industry growing at 16.82 per cent as compared to last year; during the same period last year the industry produced 8,587,131, vehicles. Of the total vehicles produced, over 77 per cent have been two-wheelers with 7,741,261 units compared with 6,686,963 during the same period last year, up by 15.77 per cent. Motorcycles and step-throughs have led the growth in the two wheeler segment with an increase in production of 19.96 per cent. Other segments, including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles and three wheelers have also demonstrated significant growth during January-November 2006 as compared to the corresponding period last year. Passenger car production has also crossed the 1 million mark in the 11 month period with a production of 1,100,799 passenger cars at a growth rate of 18.59 per cent, while multi-purpose vehicles have grown by 9.24 per cent. The overall increase in production of passenger vehicles has been 16.38 per cent during January-November 2006. Passenger vehicles have accounted for about 13.60 per cent of the total automobile production. In the commercial vehicles category, light passenger carriers (LCVs) have shown positive growth of 9.26 per cent. Goods carriers in both the medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCVs) and LCV categories have grown by nearly 30 per cent. During the period a total of 189,716 units of LCVs and 251,114 M&HCVs have been produced accounting for about 4.4 per cent of vehicle production. In the three-wheeler segment, production of passenger carriers has grown by 34 per cent compared with a growth of 17.20 per cent in the goods carrier category. A total of 4,85, The Indian automobile industry has reached a milestone crossing the record 10 million production mark in 11 months of the current calendar year 2006, boosted by a strong economic growth, increased sales, plethora of products and attractive financing schemes.

Infrastructure

Propelled by the strong performance of petroleum refinery products, the six core infrastructure industries have grown by a robust 9 per cent in October 2006 compared with 7.4 per cent in the corresponding period in the previous fiscal year. This has been contrary to the Index for Industrial Production (IIP) for October which has indicated a slowdown in the growth rate for the month (6.2 per cent), the lowest in this fiscal year. According to official data, key infrastructure industries, including crude petroleum, coal, power, cement and finished steel, have improved their performances in October 2006 over the comparable period last year. On a cumulative basis, in April-October 2006 the infrastructure industries have registered a growth of 7.5 per cent against 5.2 per cent in the comparable period in 2005-06. The petroleum refinery products sector have topped the list, growing at 18 per cent in October, reversing the deceleration of 2.4 per cent in the corresponding month of the last fiscal year. Electricity has performed the second-best performer in October with a growth of 9.7 per cent against 7.7 per cent, followed by crude petroleum that has improved output by 9.3 per cent against a slowdown of 7 per cent. Cement output has grown by 9.1 per cent against 8.6 per cent, while coal output has also improved by 6.1 per cent compared with 2.1 per cent in the previous year. Though, there has been a deceleration in the performance of finished steel to 7.6 per cent from 16.1 per cent in October 2005. The index of core infrastructure industries has a combined weighting of 26.7 per cent in the IIP, which has registered a slowdown in October 2006 due to a poor performance by the manufacturing sector.

The union minister for power has assured that it is making efforts to ensure that it meets its target for achieving electrification of all households across the country by 2012. The government expects the rural electrification programme to be completed by 2009 and every household in the country to have access to power by 2012. 27 states participating in the implementation of Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana (RGGVY), except Delhi and Goa, have formulated and submitted 575 draft detailed project reports (DPRs) involving an outlay of Rs 28,772.31 crore covering 546 districts. Sanction has been accorded to 317 DPRs involving an outlay of Rs 11,514.23 crore covering electrification of 69,534 un-electrified or de-electrified villages and intensive electrification of 1,65,124 villages in these 27 states. It is reported that the implementing states so far have availed Rs 2,480.41 crore under sanctioned RGGVY projects.

The central government has allocated a coal block for the proposed Sasan power project in Madhya Pradesh and the process for importing coal has been initiated for the Mundra project in Gujarat – the first couple of 4,000 MW - each thermal stations being set up under the ultra mega power projects The union power minister has admitted to a delay in the announcement of the winning bidders for the two projects. The Sasan project had received 10 bids and 6 parties are in the fray for the Mundra mega power project. The PFC has been delayed in opening the price bids for Sasan and Mundra projects due to the absence of the chairman of the apex committees evaluating the bids.

India’s oil refining capacity would rise by 60 per cent to about 240 million tonne by the end of the 11th Plan period (2012); as per the petroleum ministry, given the projects under implementation and those at various stages of approval, the refinery capacity in India is expected to go up to about 240 million tonne per annum during the 11th Plan, which implies an additional capacity of 91 mmtpa during the Plan period from the current oil refining capacity of 148.97mmtpa. Reliance Petroleum’s 29 million tonne refinery at Jamnagar along with Indian Oil Corp’s 15 million tonne Paradip refinery in Orissa, Hindustan Petroleum’s 9 million tonne Bhatinda refinery in Punjab and Bharat Petroleum’s 6 million tonne Bina refinery in Punjab are likely to be commissioned in the 11th Plan. Essar also plans to raise its Vadinar refinery capacity to 16 mmtpa. Besides, IOC plans to raise its Panipat refinery capacity to 15 mmtpa from current 12 and expand the Haldia refinery by 1.5 million tonne to 7.5 million tonne. HPCL is expanding the Mumbai and Vizag refineries to 7.9 and 8.33 million tonne from current 5.5 and 7.5 million tonne, respectively and BPCL expanding its Kochi refinery by 2 million tonne to 9.5 million tonne. The petroleum minister adds that with the surplus gradually increasing with the projected refinery expansions, it the need for exporting the surplus for higher foreign exchange earnings.

The estimated cost of constructing the railways’ dedicated freight corridor has jumped by a dramatic 60 per cent from the original projection; as per an interim draft report by RITES, an Indian Railways undertaking, the construction cost of the east and west corridors has gone up a whopping Rs 13,000 crore to Rs 35,000 crore, from the earlier estimate of Rs 22,000 crore. The report estimated the eastern corridor to cost around Rs 15,200 crore and the western corridor Rs 19,500 crore. As per sources, the main reasons for the escalation include larger land requirements and new technology; about 500 km of the corridors will be built on a completely new alignment, for which the railways would have to acquire land. According to the draft report, the eastern corridor would cover 1,280 km, of which 280 km would be on a new alignment and, similarly, the western corridor will cover 1,483 km, of which 276 km will be diverted.

Inflation

The annual point-to-point inflation rate based on wholesale price index (WPI) rose by 5.16 percent for the week ended December 02,2006 as compared to 5.30 per cent in the last week or at a lower rate of 4.44 per cent during the corresponding week last year.

During the week under review, the WPI declined to 207.8 from 208.6 in the previous weeks’ level (Base: 1993-94=100). The index of ‘primary articles’ group, (weight 22.02 per cent), declined by 0.3 percent to 211.9 from its previous week’s level of 212.5, mainly due to decline in prices of ‘food article like fruits and vegetables , moong, bajra, and milk. The index of ‘fuel, power, light and lubricants’ group (weight 14.23 per cent) declined by 1.9 per cent to 322.6 due to lower prices of furnace oil, naptha, petrol and aviation turbine fuel. The index of ‘manufactured products’ group rose by 0.2 per cent to 180.8 from 180.5 during the week under review. The rise in prices of food products like bran, rape and mustard oil, sooji, atta , maida and groundnut oil. is the main reason for the up-trend in manufactured products.

The latest final index of WPI for the week ended October 07,2006 has been revised upwards; as a result both, the absolute index and the implied inflation rate stood at 208.3 and 5.36 per cent as against their provisional levels of 207.9 and 5.16 per cent, respectively.

Banking

The government of Maharashtra has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in regard to urban co-operative banks in the state. Consequent upon this, a state-level Task Force for Urban Co-operative banks (TAFCUB) has been constituted for Maharashtra . Similar MoUs have also been signed with the state of Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttaranchal, Chhattisgarh and Goa .

After the successful implementation of Credit Information Bureau (India) Limited to keep a check on the corporate and retail banking defaults, a full fledged rural credit bureau is now offing. The move is expected to give a fillip to the ongoing banking exposures for rural lending. ICIC Bank is in discussions with CIBIL to roll out a rural credit bureau in collaboration with NABARD. The new entity will be in the nature of a joint venture among the three entities. Existing of rural credit bureau will help banks to access information, needed to accurately judge the repayment behaviour of rural consumer.

The government stated that the new private sector banks are more aggressive in the auto loan and have increased its exposure to the sector by 105 per cent to Rs 49, 417 crore for the year ended March 2006 as compared to last year.

ICICI Bank, the country’s largest private sector bank, has hiked its benchmark lending rates for retail and corporate clients by 50 basis points from December 18, 2006. The decision follows the RBI’s sudden announcement on December 8, 2006 to raise the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points. The floating reference rate (FRR) for consumer loans (including home loans) has been increased to 10.75 per cent a year, against 10.25 per cent now, while the benchmark advance rate, applicable for corporate loans, has been revised to 13.75 per cent a year, against 13.25 per cent now. The revised lending rates for existing floating rate customers would be effective from January 1, 2007.

Financial Market

Shree Ashtavinayak Cine Vision Ltd. Has tapped the market from December 14 to 20 through issue of 33 lakh shares in a price band of Rs 140-160.

It was truly a roller-coaster ride in the markets as high volatility gripped the street. RBI's surprise CRR hike, timid October industrial growth figures plunged the markets to 12,995 by Tuesday. However the market recovered over the next three days to rally nearly 618 points to close the week at 13,614 backed by positive cues from firm global markets and the inflation front.

The BSE Sensex snapped its winning streak, posting a loss for the week ended Friday, (15 December) on profit-booking. The Sensex lost 184.97 points for the week ended Friday, (15 December) to 13,614.52, while the NSE Nifty lost 63.90 points, to settle at 3,888.65. The Sensex started the week with a sharp plunge of 400.06 points, to settle at 13,399.43, on 11 December 2006, after the RBI came out with a surprise 0.5% hike in cash reserve ratio (CRR), after market hours on Friday (8 December). On 12 December 2006, the BSE Sensex registered a mammoth 404.41 point loss, to settle at 12,995.05 as selling continued following data showing lower-than-expected 6.2% growth in industrial production in October 2006, which raised fears of economic slowdown. The BSE Sensex jumped 186.32 points on 13 December, to settle at 13,181.34, on bargain-hunting after a steep fall and on short covering later in the day. The market continued to recover due to strong buying in index pivotals, with the Sensex gaining 305.82 to 13,487.16 on 14 December 2006. The Sensex jumped 127.36 points, to settle at 13,614.52 on 15 December on the back of firm global markets, and a decline in inflation.

Derivatives

The spot market is now at a premium to the futures market indicating that expectations have become more bearish. The correction on Monday and Tuesday has led to a sea change in derivative markets attitude. For the first time in two months, futures are trading at a discount to the spot price and, despite the recovery, there is a distinct aura of nervousness. The spot Nifty stood at 3888 by close on Friday. The December futures contract was trading at 3870 while the January futures was trading at 3876. Through the last several weeks the futures have traded at premium to each other and to the spot.

Government Securities Market

Under the weekly T-Bill auctions, the RBI mopped up Rs.1889.14 crore and Rs.1500 crore through 91-day T-Bill and 182-day T-Bill. From this, the RBI raised Rs.559.14 crore and Rs.1000 crore under the Market Stabilisation Scheme (MSS) through 91-day T-Bill and 182-day T-Bill respectively. The cut-off yields for the 91-day and 182-day T-Bill were 7.1027% and 7.2523% respectively.

RBI conducted the auction of State Development Loans (SDLs), 2016 for eight state governments for an aggregate amount of Rs.1963.24 crore. The cut-off yield of SDL 2016 was 7.81% for Nagaland and Rajasthan, 7.89% for Assam , 7.93% for Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, 7.94% for Kerala and Meghalaya and 7.99% for Jharkhand.

The Government of India has announced the issue of ‘8.01 percent Oil Marketing Companies Government of India Special Bonds, 2023’ for Rs. 4,150 crore (nominal) on December 15, 2006.

The Government of India has announced the issue of ‘8.03 per cent Government of India FCI Special Bonds, 2024’ for Rs. 5,000 crore (nominal). The Special Bonds is being issued at par on December 15, 2006

Secondary Market

The cut-off yield in 91-day T-Bill auction moved higher to 7.1027% as against 6.6462% during the previous week. The cut-off yield in 182-day T-Bill auction also moved higher to 7.2523% as against the previous cut-off yield of 6.8869%.

The weighted average YTM of G.S 2016 7.59% bond was 7.6826% on December 15, 2006 as compared to 7.3936% on December 08, 2006. The 1-10 year YTM spreads decreased by 8 bps to 40bps.

The US Federal Open Market Committee has kept the benchmark US interest rate unchanged at 5.25%. In its statement, it mentioned that the economic growth has slowed down over the course of year, partly reflecting a cooling of the housing market. It identified inflation as a major risk although inflationary pressures were likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations, and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand.

In a surprise move, the RBI hiked cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points after trading hours on Friday (8 December). The RBI move fuelled expectations of rise in lending and deposit rates by Indian banks. They are likely to take a final view on raising interest rates on loans as well as deposits, by the end of this week, or early next week.

Bond Market

The banking sector raised around Rs 2,556 crore through certificate of deposits for the fortnight ended November 10, while the corporate sector mobilised only Rs 1,670 crore through commercial papers for the fortnight ended November 30.

Foreign Exchange Market

The spot rupee remained rangebound during the week. Foreign exchange inflows in the beginning of the week were not much forthcoming since there was a wide-scale correction seen in the equity market. The dollar gained against major cross-currencies as part of global correction.

The six-month forward premia closed at 2.94% (annualized) on December 15, 2006 vis-à-vis 2.20% on December 08, 2006.

With the CRR hike, the market is expecting tightness in liquidity. Especially after the advance tax outflows, the rupee premiums to be paid for booking forward dollars are likely to move up. Even as the market will be thinly traded as regards to demand and supply, interbank players may stock up dollars for future by booking them at a forward date.

Commodities Futures derivatives

The Forward Markets Commission (FMC) has directed incorporated exchanges not to allow its promoters or any stakeholders to sell their current equity stake or issue any fresh shares for allotment without prior permission from the regulator. FMC has also decided to soon issue guidelines for such equity sale stake in the commodities exchanges. The directive comes on the heels of reports that ICICI Bank, one of the National Derivatives & Commodities Exchange (NCDEX) promoters, is planning to sell its remaining 8% stake to Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) of the US . A few months earlier, ICICI Bank sold 7% stake to Goldman Sachs in a deal worth Rs 108 crore. The other promoters of NCDEX are ICICI Bank, LIC, NABARD, and the National Stock Exchange, each owner of 15% of the bourse.

Corporate Sector

Larsen and Toubro (L&T) has secured a contract worth Rs 5,400 crore from Delhi International Airport Limited for design and construction of terminal, a 4.43 km runway, which would be one of Asia’s longest runway and associated works of the Delhi Airport . The company has also won two more contracts worth $ 86 million from the Chinese petrochemical company Sinopec. L&T has awarded to design, manufacture and supply three ethylene oxide reactors, each writhing above 1,000 tonnes. The reactors will form part of the methyl ethyl glcol (MEG) unit in a petrochemical plant.

Petron Engineering Construction has secured Rs 1.25 crore contract from leading detergent manufacturer Nirma for projects related to their plant in Gujarat .

Larsen and Toubro Infotech, a subsidiary of L&T, has acquired GDA Technologies Inc, a California based electronic design company, and all of its design centers in USA and India .

Tata Group has acquired 7.5 per cent share in Delhi based SpiceJet carrier for less than Rs 100 crore. This is company’s first investment in the aviation sector

*These statistics and the accompanying review are a product arising from the work undertaken under the joint ICICI research centre.org-EPWRF Data Base Project.

Some Definitions

II

Employment and Unemployment Situation in India

Population Household Characteristics

Table 1: Average household size and sex ratio i.e. females per 1000 males - All-India

Household Type

Age Distribution of Population

Table 3: Age wise distribution of Population

Literacy Rate of Population

Table 4: Literacy Rate of Population

III

Labour Force Participation

Usual status approach

Current weekly status approach

Gender differences in Labour force

Table 7 : Sex Ratio of labour force (Females Per 1000 Males)

IV

Usually employed

Table 8: Number of Persons Employed per 1000 Persons according to Usual Status

Table 9: Number of Persons Employed per 1000 Persons according to Current Weekly and Current Daily Status

V