Current Economic Statistics and Review For the
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Theme
of the week: All-India Debt and Investment Survey
(AIDIS)
Estimated Amount of Cash Loans By Credit Agencies and By Asset Holding Classes - As on 30-06-2002* I
Introduction
This note – eighth in a series of notes on All-India Debt and Investment Survey (AIDIS) conducted by the National Sample Survey Organisation during n 2003 (January-December) along with some other surveys, viz., Situation Assessment Survey of Farmers (SAS), Land and Livestock Holding Survey (LHS), etc., in their 59th round (January-December 2003)- deals with distribution of outstanding cash loans as on 30-06-2002 among different asset holding classes of households in rural and urban areas, borrowed from different credit agencies and by all states and regions. 2 Distribution
of the Estimated Amount of Aggregate Debt All-India
According to the NSSO 59th Round (January-December 2003), there are 203.4 million households in India, having an aggregate amount of debt Rs. 1,76,795 crore as on June 30,2002, thus each household had borrowed an average amount of Rs. 8,694 (Statement 1).
It is assumed that the institutional agencies will play an important role in meeting the need of credit of the households on easy terms of contract and thus reduce the burden of heavy interest that the household would otherwise be compelled to bear. Unfortunately, their presence appears to be the least among those who probably need their service most.
Statement 2 depicts the distribution of cash loans among different asset holding classes by institutional and non-institutional agencies. It can be seen their from that out of the total cash loans of Rs . 1,76,795 crore distributed amongst all credit agencies, institutional agencies’ share at Rs.1,12,684 crore or 63.7 per cent is much more than that of non-institutional agencies at Rs. 64,119 crore or 36.3 per cent. But, institutional agencies have extended loans of 68 per cent or about Rs 76,000 crore to the richest two asset holding classes, while the poorest got Rs.522 crore or 0.5 per cent. Though, non-institutional agencies also mainly cater to the needs of richer classes, their performance towards poorer classes is relatively better than that of institutional agencies. Regional
Review
Tables 17 to 19 present state- and region-wise data on the
distribution of cash loans outstanding among different asset holding
classes to different credit agencies.
It can be seen from Table 17 that out of the total loans extended
by all credit agencies as on 30-06-2002,
major chunks of Rs. 66,817 crore or 37.8 per cent and Rs. 38,722
crore or 21.9 per cent were distributed among the households of southern
and western regions. Among western region
Table 18 exhibits performance of institutional agencies in
rendering loans for different households. Here also southern and western
regions together have got almost 62 per cent of total advances rendered by
the institutional agencies. Within them,
Table 19 displays the performance of non-institutional agencies in
advancing cash loans to different households state-wise and region-wise.
Here also households of southern regions owe about 45 per cent of total
credit extended by non-institutional agencies amounting to Rs. 28,604
crore, the highest among different regions. It is known that Andhra
Pradesh has the highest incidence of indebtedness amongst all states from
non-institutional agencies. This is reflected in the fact that households
of Andhra Pradesh owing 23.4 per cent or Rs.15,025 crore are the highest
debtors to non-institutional agencies among all the households in
3 Distribution
of Aggregate Amount of Debt By Asset Sizes : Rural Areas Out of the total debt of Rs. 1,76,975 crore , Rs.1,11,468 crore or 63 per cent of the total debt is owed by 14.8 million rural households with each household owing a sum of Rs. 7,539. Statement
3 explains the distribution of cash loans among different asset holding
classes by institutional and non-institutional agencies in rural
Institutional
Agencies Out of the cash loan of Rs. 1,11,468 crore advanced by institutional agencies , a sum of Rs. 57,792 crore or 90.9 per cent were extended by two agencies, viz., co-op societies and commercial banks .However, the performance of these two top institutional agencies reveals that they favour more the richer classes than the poorer classes (Statement 4) Interestingly, cooperative societies had a higher amount of loans (Rs. 30,471 crore) than that of commercial banks (Rs.27,321 crore). Commercial banks thus advanced a sum of Rs. 27,321 crore or 42.9 per cent of the institutional credit agency advances in 30-6-2002; this was about 14 per cent less than the amount advanced by co-op societies.
Commercial banks extended a nominal credit of Rs. 176 crore or 0.6 per cent to the poorest households whose asset holdings were less than Rs. 15,000 as against a huge amount of cash loans woth Rs. 12,208 crore or 44.7 per cent extended to the richer classes, i.e., households with Rs. 8 lakh or more. This is about 69 times more than that Rs. 176 crore advanced to poorer classes. Co-op societies, while extending a credit of Rs.12,040 crore or 39.5 per cent of their total advance of Rs.30,471 crore to richest classes, i.e., households having asset worth Rs. 8 lakhs or more, they advanced a mere Rs. 101 crore or 0.3 per cent to the poorest classes.
Non-Institutional
agencies Non-Institutional agencies advanced a sum of Rs. 47,853 crores to rural households. Out of which, a sum of Rs. 1,266 crore or 2.6 per cent were used to cater to the needs of lower strata households holding an asset worth less than Rs. 15,000 as against a sum of Rs. 6,762 crore or 14.1 per cent to the richest classes. Amongst non-institutional agencies, agricultural moneylenders’ share was Rs. 11,145 crore or 23.3 per cent of the total non-institutional finance. Though this class of money lenders does not favour the two lowest asset holding classes, their loan distribution has been relatively more equitable among all other asset holding classes. Professional moneylenders, by extending a credit of Rs. 21,876 crores or 45.7 per cent are the main non-institutional credit purveying agency in rural areas. Though their performance among low strata rural households are better than that of agricultural moneylenders, professional moneylenders cater to 2.2 per cent and 5.4 per cent credit needs of the last two strata of households in rural areas. “Relatives and friends’ advances loans free of interest to the households. Their share in total non-institutional agency lending is 16.6 per cent or Rs. 7,948 crore.
Regional
Review
Tables 1 to
8 illustrate the functioning of different credit agencies among the rural
households of Perusal of the said tables reveals the following:. (i) Households in the southern region are the most indebted households to all the mentioned credit agencies except relatives and friends. (ii) Households in Andhra Pradesh are the most indebted to non-institutional credit agencies. (iii) However, households in Kerala owe more to institutional agencies.
(iv)
Co-operative
societies lend more to households in
(v)
Poorer
asset class households of Orissa, (vi) Lending by of non-institutional agencies are more or less same among different regions ( except for Andhra Pradesh). (vii)
Presence
of agricultural moneylender is felt only in the rural areas of Haryana.
Punjab, Rajasthan, (viii)
Presence of professional
moneylender is miniscule in
(ix)
Relatives and friends are
more dominant in the north-eastern region, as shown earlier. 4 Distribution
of Aggregate Amount of Debt By Asset Sizes: Urban Areas Urban households had cash loans outstanding as on 30-6-2002 to the tune of Rs. 65,327 crore or 37 per cent of the total cash debt from all credit agencies with an average debt of Rs.11,771. It can be seen from Statement 6 that when one moves from the highest class to lowest class, the deterioration in the lending process of different credit agencies are mind-boggling. This is because in urban areas institutional agencies lend 75 per cent of the total credit needs of urban households. More significantly, institutional agencies in urban areas increasingly prefer richer classes. As against this , non-institutional agencies whose share in the credit needs of urban households are about 25 per cent and they finance distinctly more of poorer classes .This is a major revelation, which has serious social and economic implications; the poor have to willy nilly depend on non-institutional agencies even in urban areas.
Institutional
Agencies
Out of the cash loan of Rs. 49,060 crore advanced by institutional agencies to urban households, a sum of Rs. 32,794 crore or 66.8 per cent was extended by two agencies viz., co-op societies and commercial banks .However, performance of these two agencies reveals that they favour more the richer classes than the poorer classes (Statement 7) Co-op societies, while extending credit of Rs.6,110 crore or 45.6 per cent of their total advance of Rs.13,392 crore to richer classes, i.e., households having asset worth Rs. 8 lakhs or more, they advanced only Rs. 88 crore or 0.7 per cent to households holding assets worth less than Rs. 15,000. Commercial banks advanced a sum of Rs. 19,402 crore or 39.5 per cent of the institutional credit agency advances on 30-6-2002. They extended a fractional credit of Rs. 50 crore or 0.3 per cent to the poorer household whose asset holdings are less than Rs. 15,000 as against a huge amount of cash loans woth Rs. 13,112 crore or 67.6 per cent to the richer classes i.e. households with Rs. 8 lakh or more. This is over 250 times that of Rs. 50 crore advanced to poor classes.
Region-wise
Review Tables 10 to 16 presents state and region-wise data on cash loans outstanding to various credit agencies by asset holding classes.. * This note has been prepared by R.Krishnaswamy.
Highlights of Current Economic Scene AGRICULTURE The
central government has plans to provide relief package to bail out the
sugar industry, which would be in addition to the already released Rs 850
crore. It is expected to increase the moratorium period till March 2010
and provide financial assistance to sugar units that missed the current
crushing season. It is also planning to create an additional sugar buffer
stock of 3 million tonnes as the country’s sugar production in the
2006-07 (October-September) season likely to cross 27 million tonnes
against the earlier estimate of 26 million tonnes due to upward revision
in sugar output estimates made by In
response to the recent wheat import tender floated by the State Trading
Corporation of India (STC) 7 global bidders have offered to supply over
one million tonnes of wheat to The
central government has extended the current duty-free regime on pulses
imports till March 31, 2009 as a part of measures taken to curb rise in
prices of essential commodities. Prior to June 2006, pulses importers used
to pay customs duty 10 per cent per tonne. Following spiralling domestic
prices of pulses, imports were made duty-free initially till March 31,
2007 and subsequently till July 31, 2007 and now till March 31, 2009. The
Coffee Board has sought Rs 90 crore from the central government to promote
coffee in the domestic market. The fund would be utilised over a period of
five years starting from financial year 2007-08 to 2011-12. In the first
year, that is, 2007-08, Rs 10 crore would be utilised for promotional
activities, while the remaining Rs 80 crore would be spent in the next 4
years with each financial year being earmarked Rs 20 crore each. In
addition, during the first year of campaign, the board has plans to create
a ‘Transparency Label’ or ‘Coffee Mark’ and supply to roasters who
produce 100 per cent pure coffee. In
an effort to bring about a change in the state of agriculture and farmers
in The
other major recommendations of the committee include: An
increase in the validity period of such loans to five years from the
present one-year period and amendment of laws for the purpose, if
necessary. Provision
of full credit relief in the form of waiver of the due amount of loan to
farmers in the case of occurrence of natural calamities for three
consecutive years. Creation
of a fund designated as National Agriculture Stabilisation Fund to aid
such waivers. Reduction
in the stamp duty on agricultural advances or bring it down to zero. In
order to provide regular daily income to distressed farmers, National bank
for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) has decided to launch
National Milk Plan worth Rs 1000 crore in 325 districts across the country
in collaboration with National Dairy Development Board (NDDB). The plan
aims at increasing productivity and optimising cost of production by
providing necessary institutional credit support for quality breeding,
optimising use of feed and its availability along with superior animal
health services. According
to provisional estimates of the Marine Export Product Development
Authority (Mpeda), seafood exports from the country have grown by a robust
10.5 per cent (in value terms) to around US $ 1.8 billion during the
financial year 2006-07. The anti-dumping duty and customs bond imposed by
the US has led to the Indian exporters focusing on European Union, which
has continued to be the largest market for Indian marine products during
the year 2006-07 also, with an approximate market share of 32 per cent,
higher from 29.5 per cent a year ago. INDUSTRY
Production
of truck and bus tyres for the financial year ending March 2007 has
increased by four per cent. This is lower than the eight per cent rise
recorded in the previous fiscal. The production has touched 123.67 lakh
units in 2006-07 as against 119.41 lakh units in the 2005-06 financial
year. The overall tyre production across segments has increased by 11 per
cent for the fiscal to touch 735.44 lakh units as against 660.32 lakh
units the year before, according to the figures released by the automotive
tyre manufacturers' association (ATMA). Tractor (trailer) tyre production
has seen the maximum increase at 38 per cent with 8.23 lakh units being
produced (against 5.96 lakh units in 2005-06). Tractor (front) tyre
production is next with 17.54 lakh units as against 13.83 lakh units, an
increase of 27 per cent. On the exports front, the overall change has just
been around 1.15 per cent. Truck and bus tyre exports have fallen by
around 5.51 per cent. While exports in the passenger car segment has shown
a decline of 8.25 per cent. There is, however, good news in the export of
motorcycle tyres. It increased by 78.64 per cent to touch 1,51,677 units
as against 84,908 units. According to Mr D. Ravindran, Director General,
ATMA, "The industry on the whole underwent a lot of hardships during
the last financial year, with the prices of raw material increasing.'' Steel
Steel
prices may not go up further in the near future as the government has said
that Steel
industries must hold prices if they want to continue receiving various
concessions extended by the government. Stating that steel prices have
gone up by about 15 per cent in the past three years, minister for steel
Mr Ram Vilas Paswan has said that steel majors must either desist from
arbitrarily raising prices or lose out on concessions. He has also added
that the government has constituted a price monitoring committee to
formulate a strategy for future pricing, analyse the variations and act as
a watchdog to ensure a free and fair market environment. In order to
bridge the price difference between urban and rural markets, the minister
has said that public sector steel companies have been directed to sell
steel at the same rate throughout the country; the extra cost of
transportation to the rural
market will have to be borne by the companies. INFRASTRUCTURE
Aviation
The
central government is planning to set up an airport economic regulatory
authority to ensure a level-playing field for all airport developers.
Addressing the session on `the challenge of connectivity' at the look
south 2007 conference organised by FICCI, Mr. K.N. Srivastav, joint
secretary, ministry of civil aviation, has said that over 300 new aircraft
would be added to different airlines in India in the next five years. This
phenomenal growth in the aviation sector would put pressure on airport
infrastructure. And would also require an additional 5,000 pilots. A FICCI
press release has said that such a growth would make it necessary for the
government to make operational the 300 airstrips that are currently
available but are not being used. Roadways
Rural
development ministry officials have said that they have adopted a
multi-layered monitoring strategy to ensure transparency in the projects
undertaken for road development. The quality checks are done right from
the detailed project report (DPR) preparation stage to the road
construction stage. According to Mr. Jugal Kishore Mohapatra, joint
secretary, ministry of rural development, “The DPRs are cross checked by
Indian institutes of technology (IITs) and state-level engineering
colleges. So the problem of massive changes in scope of work at the DPR
stage is handled.” When road construction begins, independent agencies
are appointed at the state level as well as at the central level to
monitor the progress. Moreover, during road construction, the details of
materials purchased and used by contractors are put on a citizen's
information board in the local area. INFLATION
Annual
rate of inflation, based on WPI on point to point basis stood at 5.27 per
cent for the week ended 12th May 2007 as compared to 5.44 per
cent last week. Over
the week WPI rose by 0.1 per cent to 211.7 from 211.4 for the previous
week. Primary articles prices went up by 0.5 per cent due to price rise in
eggs, fruits and vegetables, milk, and Jowar. Fuel,Power,Light and
Lubrints remained unchanged at 321.8. Index of Manufactured products rose
marginally by 0.1 per cent in spite of fll in the prices of food products
index. WPI
index for all commodities were revised upwards for the week ended
17.3.2007 to 209.6 from 209.4. Inflation rate correspondingly changed to
6.56 from 6.46 per cent. BANKING
Bank
of Baroda will be opening 10 overseas offices this year, with the first
one coming up in Indusind
Bank has reported a net profit of Rs 21.40 crore in the fourth quarter of
2006-07 against a loss of Rs 62.40 crore a year earlier. The bank’s net
profit for the year ended March 31, 2007 rose to Rs 68.22 crore from Rs
36.82 crore. The
Centurion Bank of The
RBI will bring global Master Card International and Visa International
under its regulatory framework. Once the Draft Payment and Settlement
System Bill gets the Parliament nod, these companies will have to share
the information sought by the central bank. Currently, the central bank
has to make a “request” for information from the global payment
settlement companies. The Draft Payment and Settlement System Bill plans
to bring all payment systems, including those owned by non-banking
companies, under the RBI’s regulatory framework. A parliamentary
committee had last week submitted its report on the Bill, which is likely
to be tabled in the monsoon session of Parliament. The central bank wants
the share of electronic payments in total non-cash payments to increase
four-fold to 80 per cent from around 20 per cent in three years,
especially by shifting high value clearing to electronic platforms. At the
end of March 2007, the share of electronic payments in total non-cash
payments was 22 per cent in volume and 65 per cent in value. PUBLIC
FINANCE
The
direct tax collection of the government has shot up by 128 per cent to Rs
5,441 crore during April 2007 over Rs 2,381 crore collected during the
corresponding month of the previous year mainly due to faster clearing of
refunds by the income tax department during 2006-07. The I-T department
has issued refunds amounting to over Rs 39,000 crore in the last fiscal
year, an increase of nearly Rs 10,000 crore over 2005-06. Corporate income
tax has seen the highest growth of 213 per cent to Rs 1,602 crore over the
deficit of Rs 1,418 crore during the corresponding month of the previous
fiscal year. Personal income tax collections have risen to Rs 3,839 crore
in April 2007, a marginal increase of 1.24 per cent over the year. FINANCIAL
MARKETS
Capital
Markets Primary
Market Decolight
Ceramics Limited has tapped the market between May 24 and 29 by
issuing equity Shares aggregating Rs. 4254.60 Lakhs
{Excluding promoter contribution of Rs. 90 Lakhs}
in a price band of Rs 45-54 per share. Secondary
Market The
market ended the week with small gains, on account of mixed trend in index
pivotals. However it was highly volatile during this week pulled by series
of local and global events. The
BSE 30-share Sensex added 34.59 points in the week ended 25 March 2007 to
settle at 14,338.45, while the NSE Nifty was up 33.65 points, or 0.79 per
cent, to 4,248.15 The
week started on an upbeat note with the Sensex advancing 115.19 points to
14,418.6 on 21 May 2007, tracking firm Asian and European markets. The
S&P CNX Nifty rose 46.40 points, or 1.10 per cent, to 4,260.90, an
all-time closing peak before striking an all-time high of 4,269.35 in
intra-day trade. Shares from the oil & gas, metal and FMCG space were
in high demand. The
Nifty struck a fresh all-time high of 4,281.60 a day later (22 May 2007),
as strong buying for frontline pivotals continued. The Sensex rose 35.12
points, or 0.24 per cent, to 14,453.72 The
Sensex fell 90.46 points to 14,363.26 on 23 May 2007 as bulls took a
breather and liquidating positions in the last hour of trade. Except for
selective buying interest seen in the metal and capital goods sector,
shares from the auto, FMCG, oil & gas and banking sectors declined on
profit taking. Profit
booking continued a day later 24 May 2007, with the Sensex dipping a sharp
145.15 points to 14,218.11. On
25 May 2007, the Sensex staged a smart intra-day reversal to end with a
120.34point spurt to 14,338.45. Short covering triggered the rally in the
second half of the day’s trading session Derivatives
The
Nifty May 2007 futures settled at 4,191.40, a discount of 13.50 points
compared to the spot closing of 4,204.90.
Government
Securities Market
Primary
Market RBI
conducted the auction of "7.38 per cent Government Stock 2015"
and "8.35 per cent Government Stock 2022" for a notified amount
of Rs.5000 crores and Rs.3000 crores respectively. The cut-off yields for
the "7.38 per cent Government Stock 2015" and "8.35 per
cent Government Stock 2022" were 8.2399 per cent and 8.4074 per cent
respectively. The
cut-off yield in 91-day T-Bill auction remained steady at 7.6435 per cent
during the previous week. The cut-off yield in 364 -day T-Bill auction
moved higher to 7.8032 per cent as against the previous cut-off yield of
7.7683 per cent. Secondary
Market During
the week, the weighted average call rates during the period ranged between
7.21 per cent and 9.08 per cent, while weighted average repo rates ranged
between 5.98 per cent and 7.91 per cent and the weighted average CBLO
rates ranged between 5.34 per cent and 7.80 per cent. The average volumes
of Call, Repo, and CBLO segments were Rs.11354.04 crores, Rs.9476.45
crores, and Rs.22702.20 crores respectively. The daily average outstanding
amounts in the LAF (reverse repo) and LAF (repo) operations conducted
during the period were Rs.149.00 crores and Rs.6966.00 crores
respectively.
The
weighted average YTM of G.S 2017 8.07 per cent bond was 8.154 8per cent on
May 25, 2007 as compared to 8.0885 per cent on May 18, 2007. The 1-10 year
YTM spreads decreased by 3 bps to 27 bps. Bond
Market
Housing
Development Finance Corporation has tapped the market to mobilise Rs 200
crore with a green shoe option of Rs 100 crore by issuing bonds and
offering 10.25 per cent for 5 years Foreign
Exchange Market
The
rupee closed at Rs.40.6/USD on May 25, 2007 as compared with Rs. 40.9/USD
as on May 18, 2007.The Rupee moved between Rs. 40.55 and Rs.40.64, with a
standard deviation of 3 paise during the week. The
six-month forward premia closed at 4.23 per cent (annualized) on May 25,
2007 vis-à-vis 4.51 per cent on May 18, 2007. CORPORATE
SECTOR Tata
Motors is in talks with Latin America’s largest small truck and car
chassis maker, Metalsa, to produce chasses in In
order to solve the problem of pilot shortage in The
entity formed by the merger of Air India and Indian Airlines would be
called as National Aviation Company Ltd, but its brand name would be Air
India. Its new logo features a bright orange Konarak wheel. Company’s
registered office will be in Nokia
Oyj, the world’s biggest maker of mobile phones, filed six counter
claims against Qualcomm Inc over patent infringements. The claims are
related to Qualcomm’s chipset business. Logistics
major DHL and the Lemuir Group are planning to consolidate their logistics
business in A
company from Kerala involved in tackling the problem of dumped food waste
and a Karnataka firm that has provided thousands of rural families
dung-based biogas plants are among 10 global projects short listed for the
Ashden Awards for Sustainable Energy, popularly known as the “Green
Oscars”. Former EXTERNAL
SECTOR The
government has tightened the norm for the duty free imports of products
under the trade plus scheme by allowing exporters to import only goods
that will be used as an input for manufacturing the export good. According
to the circular published by CBEC the item to import should be an
‘input’ in the manufacture of the exported items, which is required
for ‘use’ by the exporter or the supporting manufacturer. Under TPS,
exporters are entitled to rewards in the form of duty free credit based on
incremental exports. INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY TCS
has increased stake in its Brazilian joint venture TCS do Brasil to 100
per cent from 51 percent. The Grupo TBA’s 49 percent stake was purchased
for a consideration of $33.4 million. Earlier in 2002, the company had
entered the Brazilian market through a 51:49 joint venture with Grupo TBA.
TCS do Brasil has a workforce of over 1,700 employees and recorded a top
line of $66.5 million for the year ended March 31, 2007. TELCOM Bharati
Airtel has become
*These statistics and the accompanying review are a product arising from the work undertaken under the joint ICICI research centre.org-EPWRF Data Base Project. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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