Current Economic Statistics and Review For the Week 
Ended August 11, 2007 (33^nd Weekly Report of 2007)

Theme of the week:

State Budgets – An overview * 

India being a federal system, state budgets presume significance in the macro-economic perspective as they, having power to decide and evaluate the fiscal allocation for major areas like agriculture, health, education, etc., play a crucial role in overall economic development of the country. This itself highlights the necessity to take an overview of various state budgets. This note is an attempt to include some more details in the note on ‘trends in state finances – a snapshot’ that has been previously published by us. Some more state budgets have been included in this note to get holistic impression on state finances for fiscal years 2006-07 and 2007-08.

The key fiscal indicators, such as gross fiscal deficit, revenue deficit and primary deficit of combined finances of the state Governments have seen a remarkable decline over the period (Table 1). Cautious efforts of majority of the state governments towards fiscal consolidation have budgeted for a revenue surplus of 0.4 per cent of GDP in 2007-08, as compared with the deficit of 2.2 per cent of GDP in 2002-03. Subsequently, gross fiscal deficit, as a ratio to GDP, has been budgeted to decline to 2.1 per cent in 2007-08 from 4.2 per cent during 2002-03. The revenue surpluses of majority of the states budgeted for 2007-08, have been the major factor contributing to the substantial reduction in the deficit indicators of the states. The revenue expenditure-GDP ratio of the state governments is budgeted to decline from 12.5 per cent in 2006-07 to 12.2 per cent in 2007-08. Higher allocation to developmental expenditure as well as fiscal consolidation as per the FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budgetary Management) Act has been a noteworthy feature of the State Government finances during 2007-08. The overall picture of state finances for fiscal year 2007-08 reveals that the state governments will continue to pursue the process of fiscal correction primarily through raising revenue from various sources along with containing revenue expenditures. As of end March 2007, 25 state governments have enacted Fiscal Responsibility Legislations (FRLs) to pursue the process of fiscal consolidation. Larger devolutions and transfers to states from the central government have helped them augment their revenues. Moreover, all states, with the exception of Uttar Pradesh, have implemented VAT (value added tax), which is expected to improve tax incomes of states. On the developmental front, many states have envisaged implementation of various projects, especially power and roads, through the framework of public-private partnership. States have also proposed to spend on social sector activities such as health, education, etc.

Augmentation in Revenue Receipts

The budget estimates of state governments for fiscal year 2007-08, expect robust growth in revenue receipts, mainly on account of buoyant tax collections, which are expected to witness double-digit growth in several states during the year. Meanwhile, growth in non-tax revenue and capital receipts as budgeted shows mixed trends.

Budgetary statistics of major states have been presented in Annexures 1 & 2. Among various state governments presented in Annexure 1, the government of Uttar Pradesh has estimated the largest year-on-year growth of 36.9 per cent in total receipts during fiscal year 2007-08; however for 2006-07 the budget estimates for the same have been downwardly revised by 9.6 per cent in the revised estimates. It has been followed by Andhra Pradesh projecting 31.6 per cent increase in total receipts for the fiscal year 2007-08. As against this, Karnataka government has budgeted a fall of 3.7 per cent in total receipts during the 2007-08, while revised estimates stand 12 per cent higher than the budgeted figures for fiscal year 2006-07. All other states, except some northeast state like Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur, expect healthy rises in total receipts during 2007-08.

Trends in Expenditure

It is evident from the table below that endeavours of state governments to achieve FRBM targets so far seem to be on track. Specific to budgeted outlays (Annexure 2), there is a noticeable change in the expenditure pattern of most state governments. Efforts to curtail non-plan revenue expenditure and at the same time increase capital outlays are evident in the budgets of major states. Also, large quantum of funds have been earmarked for social sector spending by many state governments.

Again, it is the state of Uttar Pradesh that has budgeted the largest increase in total expenditure to the extent of 34.3 per cent during 2007-08 over revised estimates of the previous year whereas Maharashtra is expected to see a comparatively smaller increase of only 4.7 per cent. As mentioned earlier, all state governments have made attempts to curb rises in their revenue expenditures in their budgets for 2007-08 while announcing larger capital outlays. However, Karnataka, Kerala and Maharashtra have proposed declines in their budget estimates for capital expenditures.

Improving Deficits Scenario

For the current fiscal year, consolidated revenue surplus for all states have been budgeted at 0.4 per cent of GDP during 2006-07, whereas gross fiscal deficit has projected to decline to 2.1 per cent of GDP during the year. The current fiscal situation and various efforts taken by the majority state governments make these targets seem attainable.

Fiscal deficits of major states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Bihar , Kerala are budgeted to decline in 2007-08 over revised estimates for 2006-07. For 2007-08, government of Haryana expects a fiscal surplus of Rs 1,640 crore, substantially higher than revised estimates for 2006-07. Most states have presented revenue surplus budgets for 2007-08 with few exceptions like Andhra Pradesh, Goa , Karnataka and Kerala. Revenue surplus of Bihar has been budgeted very high at Rs 3,483 crore for 2007-08 as compared to revenue deficit of Rs 752 crore during 2006-07 (RE). Haryana government has also budgeted a substantially higher revenue surplus for fiscal year 2007-08 as compared to a deficit during the previous year.

Budget estimates of state governments for 2007-08 depict an environment conducive for states to achieve FRBM targets within the specified period. The pattern of fiscal correction in most states towards the attainment of FRBM targets appears to be of a healthy nature. However, it is crucial for the states to be wary of any adverse effects on the developmental process in their respective jurisdictions. Social and developmental expenditures being state responsibilities as per the Indian constitution, state governments should be cautious about not compromising the egalitarian principle of equity while targeting to achieve mere quantitative targets as prescribed by the FRBM Act.

References:

Ø      Budget documents of various state governments (2006-07 and 2007-08)

Ø      Reserve Bank of India (2007), ‘Macroeconomics and Monetary Developments First Quarter Review 2007-08,’ April

__________

* This note has been prepared by Snehal Nagori

Highlights of  Current Economic Scene

AGRICULTURE  

According to the Soyabean Processors Association of India, the coverage of soyabean in the country is likely to touch record high of 84 lakh hectares during the kharif season 2007. The crop coverage brought under the oilseed is 80.82 lakh hectares this year, as against 71.5 lakh hectares of last year. Madhya Pradesh is expected to top again in area covered under the oilseeds with sown acreages touching nearly 47lakh hectares against 39.42lakh hectares a year ago.

ITC’s Choupal Pradarshan Khet (CPK) programme has introduced the proposal of demonstrating modern cultivation technique, which includes technical consultation and supervision of crops. It has been launched in 95 districts of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. This programme will cover vegetable farming in Andhra Pradesh, Punjab and Harayana. The crops covered under this programme are paddy, soybean, cotton, sorghum, maize and bajra in the kharif season and wheat, pulses, bajra and mustard in the rabi season. State governments and various companies engaged in the manufacture and sales of agricultural inputs have revealed their support for programme. One of them is BPCL, which has extended financial support to this programme.

By the end of September 2007, sugar export from India would fall from1 million tonne. This would take place as global prices continue to fall in the wake of huge surpluses. The white sugar exports were 1.5 million tonnes, while the estimated exports were around 3 million tonnes. As exports are weakening center has announced freight subsidies to give incentives to overseas sales. Since October 2006, prices have fallen by over Rs 900 per quintal to estimated price Rs 1,2 00-1,300. The country had produced 19.3 million tonnes in 2005-06, while the estimates were around 25.5 million tonnes. Global sugar output for the current season ending September 2006-07 is seen at 167.3 million tonnes as compared with 152.6 million tonnes produced in 2005-06.

As per International Coffee Organisation [ICO], global coffee exports have rised by 14 per cent in the first nine months of the current crop year, .i.e, October - June 2006-07 from 64.3 million bags to 73.6 million bags (one bag weigh 60 kilogram i.e. 132 pounds). Vietnam ’s coffee production has increased by 25 per cent, while its exports have increased by 36 per cent. Global coffee output is estimated to reach 121.4 million bags this season (October-September 2006-07), recording.,10 per cent increase over the last season. More over, IOC has predicted a decline of 7.7 per cent in the coffee output for the next season. .

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB), has estimated that cotton harvest would increase to 310 lakh bales in 2007-08. It is attributed that total cotton output would increase by 10 per cent; with the 6 percent increase in yieldit would be due to introductionof Bt cotton seeds and 4 per cent in acreage. The total area under cotton cultivation is 95-lakh hectare, out of which 46.35 lakh hectares are expected to be under Bt cotton. Gujarat is estimated to contribute 101 lakh bales, while Maharashtra with 52 lakh bales in the current crop season. The total production in the year 2006-07 is estimated at 280 lakh bales. Under which Bt cotton contributed around 55-per cent. This would attribute due to favourable monsoon and joint initiatives undertaken by the industry and government.

Tea exports from India , during January-June 2007, have fallen drastically by 13 per cent, to 75.7 million kgs. from 87.5 million kgs.  a year ago; due to the appreciation of rupee against dollar.

As per the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA),  total exports of oil meals from the country have declined by 22 per cent, i.e., to 1.40 lakh tonnes in July 2007 from that of 1.80 lakh tonnes during the same period last year. The overall exports of oil meals during the first four months (April - July 2007) of current fiscal year have been 9.57 lakh tonnes, posting a 9 per cent decline as compared that to 10.55 lakh tonnes a year ago.. Exports of Soya meal has declined from 6.85 lakh tonnes to 4.92 lakh tonnes, while that of groundnut meal has dropped from 0.43  lakh tonnes to 0.047 tonnes on account of  poor demand and disparity in export realisation. This fall in the exports of Soya meal and groundnut meal have been beneficial for increase in exports of castor meal and rice bran, which have jumped to 1.13 lakh tonnes (from 0.34 lakh tonnes) and 0.66 lakh tonnes (from 0.32 lakh tonnes), respectively. 

The central government has decided to dole out an additional Rs 15,000 crore to fertiliser companies as financial support to meet their losses over and above Rs 22,451.01 crore that was earmarked in the Budget 2007-08. Out of this total amount, Rs 9,000 crore would be provided as cash support from the budgetary pool, while Rs 6,000 crore would be mopped up through bonds. Fertiliser firms have to sell their products to farmers at government-controlled rates. Currently, the farm gate price of urea is Rs 4,000 per tonne, whereas the companies estimated price is above Rs 12,000 per tonne. The government is trying to keep the prices low, so that farmers would get fertiliser at affordable prices and it would directly ensure food security.

Delayed harvest in the producing regions have left the cardamom market subdued, which indicate that prices would rise up due to shortfall in production. Latest auction held at Kumily-based Cardamom Processing and Marketing Co-operative Society (CPMC) on Aug.8, accounted that the arrivals were only 30 tonnes with the proportion of fresh stock being just 10 tonnes. The average price was Rs 415 per kg and it has hardly moved up after auctions. The production drop would likely be in the range of 30-40 per cent due to delay in harvesting and erratic rainfall. In the first auction held on July 11, the arrivals were 25 tonne and only 5 tonnes out of the total arrival came from the new crop. It is predicted that a sharp upward rise in cardamom prices, would be due to a shortfall in production and the prices could breach Rs 500 per kg mark at the farm gate level

Kharif-sowing in Maharashtra , has been concluded on 11 Aug 07. The state agricultural department has stated that 11.85 million hectares have been sown this year, i.e., 88.3 per cent of the total cultivated land; against estimated target of 14.32 million hectares. The area under groundnut cultivation has increased by 11 per cent, which was 0.3 million hectares last year and soyabean sowing has marginally risen to 2.3 million hectares this year. The cotton acreages have increased by 2 per cent to 2.71 million hectares, while the area under sugarcane crop has been down by 75 per cent at 0.03 million hectares. In pulses the area under moong has been raised by 22.5 per cent to 0.5 million hectares, that of urad by 19 per cent to 0.5 million hectares, on the other hand, that of tur has fallen by 19 per cent to 0.9 million hectares. The area under maize cultivation has increased by 30 per cent to 0.6 million hectares, while paddy acreage is down by 1 per cent to 1.04 million hectares. There is downfall in Bajra acreage by 4.5 percent to 1.16million hectares, while Jowar is down by 35.8 per cent to 0.9 million hectares.

The International Development Enterprises India (IDEI)) has developed and disseminated low cost micro irrigation technologies especially for the small plot farmers. Five variants of the treadle pump have been developed to suit varied and diverse conditions. It has developed an affordable water-lifting device, i.e., treadle pump, which can be used to pump water from shallow aquifers. Nearly 4,70,000 hectares have been brought under agriculture with the help of treadle pump. Small farmers have made an investment of Rs 76 crore in purchasing treadle pump technology and Rs 477 crore in agricultural inputs. They have been able to earn Rs 2,292 crore in net additional income.

Industry

The hike in interest rates and the appreciation of the rupee against dollar has affected the performance of industrial sector. Even as the index of industrial production shows an increase of 9.8 per cent on a year on year basis in June, sequential data given below shows that it has been decreasing at a steady rate for the past three months.

 Industrial Growth (percent)

According to the data released by Central Statistical Organisation growth of industrial production stood at 12.38 percent in April and 10.92 percent in May. This slowdown in industrial production was caused by the manufacturing sector, which makes up nearly 80 percent of the industrial production. It grew only by 10.6 percent in June as compared to 11.7 percent in May and 13.67 in April. Electricity also showed the lowest growth of 6.8 percent in June and The Mining sector growth was 3.6 percent.

Automobiles

Bajaj Auto has brought out a new engine with its patented DTS-Si technology, which will drive off the 4-stroke100 cc segment. Bajaj ‘Exceed’ which is all set to roll out in September 2007 from the Waluj plant will come up with this engine.

Declam software India , the wholly owned subsidiary of the UK CAD-CAM specialist Declam PLC has come up with aggressive plans of tapping India ’s growing automotive and aerospace markets. Tata’s one lakh car project and the bajaj Auto proposed car project can be built on Delcam’s software.

Infrastructure

Steel

Steel authority of India (SAIL) has decided to invest Rs 60,000 crore to set up a 15 million tonne Greenfield steel plant in Jharkhand.

With the revised crude steel production estimate of 50.71 million tonne (MT) for 2007-08 against the earlier estimate of 44 MT, India has moved to the fifth position in world steel production ranking.

In order to lower the steel prices in India the steel companies are urging for the cost effective ways of production. The average price of steel in India is about $650 a tonne at present as compared with China’s $500-550, Russia’s $450-500 and south Korea’s $700 including a freight charge of $60 per tonne but excluding the 5 percent import duty and port handling charges of $ 5-8.The Steel Development Research Mission is in the offing with corpus of Rs 60-65 crores for which all the major steel producers would contribute and the government would act as the facilitator.

Railways

Indian railways is planning to expand its trade and transport links with the neighbouring countries, especially with Pakistan . The more focussed commodity that would be transported through railways is cement since that would be cheaper as compared to trucks. According to the railway ministry bringing in cement from Pakistan will not only boost railway’s trade but would also help to reduce the current cement crisis in India .

 Energy

 In order to meet the energy requirements of farmers the government is planning to set up an integrated rural energy system, which will mainly focus on harnessing renewable energy technologies such as biogas, wind and solar energy, conventional energy sources like electricity, kerosene, diesel, soft coke, fuel. The scheme is a part of a larger programme to provide access to affordable input and services, crucial to the success of farming and propelling the growth of the agri sector.   

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) is thinking to float a new wholly owned subsidiary for undertaking its exploration and production activities in India and abroad. Then its existing joint venture Prize Petroleum Company (PPCL), with ICICI and HDFC, undertaking domestic E&P projects would then be merged in this new subsidiary.

Infrastructure developer GMR Infrastructure Ltd has signed an initial agreement with Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corp. to set up a multi-product special economic zone in the state. This joint venture plans to invest 23 billion rupees to develop basic infrastructure for the 3,300-acre SEZ in the southern state. The special economic zone, catering to biotechnology, information technology, electronics and engineering sectors, is expected to start operations by 2009, and will be fully developed by 2014.

Inflation

The annual point-to-point inflation rate based on wholesale price index (WPI) rose by 4.45 percent for the week ended July 28,2007. During the comparable week of the earlier year, it was 4.72 per cent.

During the week under review, the WPI rose to 213.4 from 213.1 in the previous weeks’ level (Base: 1993-94=100). The index of ‘primary articles’ group, (weight 22.02 per cent), rose by 0.3 percent to 223.4 from its previous week’s level of 222.8, mainly due to increase in  prices of ‘food article like  eggs, mutton, fruits and vegetables, bajra.

The price index of ‘fuel, power, light and lubricants’ group (weight 14.23 per cent) remained stationary at 321.9.

The index of ‘manufactured products’ group rose by 0.1 per cent to 185.7 from 184.5 during the week under review. The higher prices of food products like coffee, baby food,rawa, maida and atta.

The latest final index of WPI for the week ended June 02 26, 2007 has been revised upwards; as a result both, the absolute index and the implied inflation rate stood at 212.5 and 5.09 per cent as against their provisional levels of 211.9 and 4.80 per cent, respectively.

Banking

The RBI will be transferring its surplus profit of Rs 45,719.60 crore to the Government of India. This sum will include a Rs 34,308.60 crore profit on sale of the 59.73 per cent SBI stake held by RBI to the government.

Indian factoring landscape is likely to undergo a sea change in view of the interest shown by major global factoring companies to participate in the Indian market. RBI has already received 5 applications from global factoring companies to participate in India including that of Barclays factoring division.

The Pune-based Vishweshwar Co-operative Bank has launched core banking services for its customers and has become the first bank in Pune in the non-scheduled urban co-operative segment to do so. All the 13 branches of the bank were now connected with core banking services in place.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has opposed the proposal to allow refinancing of rupee loans with external commercial borrowings (ECBs). The idea was earlier suggested by the Deepak Parekh Committee on infrastructure financing. The Central bank is also not in favour of allowing housing finance companies to raise funds through the ECB route. Corporate houses, particularly those from the real estate sector, have been eyeing the ECB route as interest rates on such loans are about 4 per cent cheaper than that on domestic debt. However, the central bank is of the opinion that allowing refinancing of rupee loans with ECBs will lead to huge foreign capital inflow in the economy which will create problems in liquidity management and result in currency appreciation. According to latest RBI data, net mobilisation under ECBs almost doubled to Rs 88,472 crore during 2006-07 (April-March) from Rs 45,078 crore a year ago. The Parekh committee had recommended the refinancing of loans observing that foreign financiers might not be keen to participate in projects initially, but might be willing to lend after a certain period when the project risk subsided. This way, it was expected, the domestic lenders would be able to exit the project while overseas financiers will have to option to invest at a less-risky stage. At present, although housing finance companies can issue foreign currency convertible bonds, they are not allowed to raise money via the ECB route. The housing and urban development ministry as well as a number of HFCs had urged the government to open the ECB route. HFCs argued that if they were allowed to access cheaper funds overseas, they would pass on benefits to borrowers. But RBI feels permitting HFCs to raise ECBs would indirectly open up another channel of overseas financing for realty, again creating foreign capital inflow. The government has barred real estate firms setting up integrated townships from raising ECBs.

Financial Markets

Capital Markets

Primary Market

Real Estate Company Puravankara Projects Ltd has fixed the issue price of its IPO at Rs 400 per equity share of Rs 5 each. The issue closed on August 8 and was subscribed 1.91 times.

Omaxe settled at Rs 349.95 on BSE on Thursday, 9 August , a premium of 12.8% over IPO price of Rs 310. The stock debuted at Rs 400. The IPO of Omxe had received strong investor response. It was subscribed 68 times. The company had priced the IPO at the top end of the Rs 265 to Rs 310 price band.

Secondary Market

Global bourses has witnessed alternate bouts of buying and selling caused by risk aversion or risk appetite that in turn was driven by US subprime mortgage woes. News that the French banking group BNP Paribas has been hit by the US subprime mortgage crisis triggered panic selling in the equity markets on Thursday August 9, wiping out early gains. BNP Paribas Investment Partners, a unit of French bank BNP Paribas, suspended withdrawals from three of its mutual funds due to “complete evaporation of liquidity”. The BSE sensex benchmark index opened strongly with a 234-point gain but fell sharply after European markets opened weak with BNP Paribas and a German bank, Commerzbank, seeing a sharp fall in their share prices after BNP’s announcement.

Gains wiped out

The 30-share BSE Sensex lost 270.15 points or 1.78% to settle at 14,868.25 in the week ended 10 August 2007. The S&P CNX Nifty lost 68.20 points or 1.5% to settle at 4,333.35 in the week. BSE Small-Cap index outperformed the market gaining 12.59 points or 0.16% to settle at 7,904.13 in the week. BSE Mid-Cap index lost 97.62 points or 1.48% to settled at 6,507.62 in the week.

The Sebi chairman said in response to the question whether the sub-prime market crises in the US was the main reason for decline in Indian indices, that to relate the movement of indices to any one factor, especially if that is an external factor, would be over-simplification. At the end of every market day, several explanations are there for why share prices went up and down. Besides he called for a transparent process in the appointment of regulators, he also said that regulation was a serious business and that they need to be adequately compensated.

In first 19 trading sessions of July (up to 26 July), FIIs purchased shares worth Rs 10,426 crore from the secondary market. During this period domestic funds booked profits on share sales of Rs 2,516 crore. Over the 19 sessions the Sensex went up by 1125.8 points to 15,776 points. But in just nine trading sessions since 27 July, FIIs sold Rs 6127.65 crore worth shares, or about 60 per cent of their secondary market investment in July. During these nine sessions, domestic institutions purchased shares totalling Rs 4,039.75 crore, which was more than their sales in July.   

India Index Services & Products (IISL), a joint venture between NSE and CRISIL, on Tuesday, 7 August, launched a new sectoral index based on the infrastructure sector. The 25-stock CNX Infrastructure Index includes companies belonging to the telecom, power, port, air, roads, railways, shipping and other utility services providers. CNX Infrastructure Index constituents represent about 21.01% of the total market capitalisation as on 31 July 2007. The index is a market-capitalisation-weighted index with base date of 1 January 2004, indexed to a base value of 1000.

BSE has revised free-float adjustment factor of four constituents of BSE Sensex. It has raised the free-float adjustment factor of Maruti Udyog to 0.45 from 0.4. It has cut free-float adjustment factor of Bajaj Auto to 0.65 from 0.7 and that of Hindalco to 0.7% from 0.75%. It has cut free float adjustment factor of Ambuja Cements to 0.65% from 0.7%. The revised free float factors would come into effect from 13 August 2007. Free float adjustment factor is used for calculating a scrip’s weightage in Sensex. The free float of a listed security is the proportion of shares available for purchase in the market by investors. In principle, it is the part of shares not held by strategic shareholders or promoters

A Sebi committee on launch of dedicated infrastructure funds (DIFs) has suggested that the proposed DIFs should operate as a closed-ended scheme with a maturity period of seven years. The committee has also suggested listing options for DIFs to provide liquidity to investors in the fund. The committee, which submitted its report on Monday, 6 August 2007, also suggested that retail investors investing in DIFs be given tax incentives. The committee has, however, added that such tax benefits should be available only to the original investors.

The open-ended Kotak Gold ETF got listed on the NSE and opened at the price of Rs 919, which is also day’s high, against its issue price of Rs 892.15. It touched a low of Rs 880 before closing at Rs 892.15. The total quantity traded was 15,257 units, of which 17 per cent was presented for delivery. The Kotak Gold ETF proposes to invest in gold, engage in gold lending, deposit gold with banks in return for fees to the extent permitted by regulators.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) will soon make it mandatory for international and domestic private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) funds to submit quarterly investment reports to the regulator. Currently, foreign and domestic venture capital funds registered with Sebi have been voluntarily submitting quarterly investment reports to the regulator.   Market sources said foreign and domestic venture capital funds, generally, are secretive about their investments, making it difficult for the regulator to keep a tab on their investments in India . At present, there are about 80 foreign venture capital investors and 90 domestic venture capital funds registered with the Sebi. The reason cited for the new rules is that as a regulatory body there was a need for the maintaining reliable data on PE/VC investments. Globally, private equities are neither regulated nor are their investments kept track of by the regulators.

After the government curtailed overseas borrowings by companies, Finance Minister P Chidambaram said there were no plans to regulate participatory notes. One of the purposes is to moderate the inflow of capital and the claim that the curbs will hurt investments is exaggerated he said.  The notes, which are typically derivatives that change in value depending on the performance of the underlying securities, allow hedge funds to invest in the country without having to register with the stock market regulator. 

The Securities Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has expressed reservations over the transparency in transactions in the margin accounts of brokers. In its investigation, the Sebi has observed that the securities maintained in these accounts are misused by brokers for leveraging and pushing up trading volumes in particular shares. The securities under the margin account are not earmarked client-wise and belong to brokers at any given point of time. To curb market manipulation, the market regulator has directed the depositories to flag off such margin accounts by asking brokers to identify accounts as their own (proprietary) and that of the clients. Further, brokers will have to work out the volume of transactions and furnish the data to the Sebi periodically.  

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Thursday set a cap of 10 per cent on overseas investments by venture capital funds in India . This is part of the guidelines for venture capital funds, which the market watchdog announced on Thursday, would be allowed only into those foreign unlisted companies that have an Indian connection, such as companies which have back office operations in India . Sebi said in a circular that the allocation of investment limits would be done on a first come, first served basis, depending on the availability of the overall limit of $500 million (Rs 2,000 crore). Presently, about 90 VCFs and 80 foreign venture capital investor funds (FVCIs) are registered with Sebi. The VCFs can invest in equity and equity-linked undertakings, within an overall limit of $500 million, for which they have to take Sebi approval.

Derivatives                                  

During the week, the total derivatives turnover ranged between Rs 28,493.98 crore  to Rs 55,903.24 crore as against a range of Rs 33935.22 crore.

Government Securities Market

Secondary Market

The inter-bank call rates rose to 6 per cent — between RBI’s signal rates of repo and reverse repo — on Monday, the first trading day after the 50 basis point hike in CRR came into effect on August 4. The call closed at 6-6.10 per cent higher than the previous close of 2- 2.25 per cent. The rates have been hovering below 1 per cent levels for the past few weeks, due to surplus cash in the system. The hike in CRR has drained the banking system of about Rs 15,000-16,000 crore.

Recapitalisation bonds worth Rs 3,150 crore, part of the stock of bonds that Indian Bank received from the Government of India between 1998 and 2003, have been swapped for other government securities that qualify as ‘SLR securities’. There are both positive and negative implications of this. On the negative side, the new bonds carry a lower rate of interest. Indian Bank will lose Rs 24 crore of interest income annually. On the positive side, Indian Bank need not make the mandatory investments in SLR securities for Rs 12,600 crore of incremental deposits (four times Rs 3,150 crore).

Bond Market

The Nabard launched its three-year and five-year bonds to raise Rs 200 crore with an unlimited greenshoe option. It will be offering rates in the range of 8.92-9.10 per cent. Dealers expect banks to come out with upper tier-II and tier-II bond issues to meet their capital requirements.   

Foreign Exchange Market

The rupee fell to a low of Rs 40.81 per dollar in intra-day trade on concerns over slowing capital inflows following stringent curbs on overseas borrowings.   The rupee recovered part of the losses to close at Rs 40.53 per dollar as companies sold the US currency when it touched a 30-day high. 

The government on  7 August 2007, put stiff restrictions on overseas borrowings, a measure sought by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to enable it to check the rupee’s sharp appreciation. External commercial borrowings (ECBs) above $20 million have now been allowed only for foreign currency expenditure for permissible end-uses and are required to be parked abroad.

As a result, interest costs for companies might jump by 75-100 basis points as ECBs were usually at lower interest rates than domestic borrowings, reports suggest. Indian companies had raised a total of $24 billion of ECBs in 2006-07 against the government’s internal target of $22 billion.

Commodities Futures derivatives

Chana futures on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange are seen marginally weak in the coming week due to low demand in spot markets and high delivery expectations in the August contract

The Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) has raised the metal and energy weightage of its composite commodity futures index ‘MCX-Comdex’ from 33.33 per cent to 40 per cent. However, the weightage of agri commodities has been reduced from 33.33 per cent to 20 per cent.  In order to synchronise the index with changing economic dynamics and increased trading activities on the exchange, the Index Maintenance Committee that comprises senior officials from the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI), the Credit Analysis & Research and the MCX decided to revamp the composition and weights of the country’s first real-time composite commodity futures index. An MCX press release said that some changes were also being made in the group formation, especially in agri-Index, where the commodities generating higher volume have been incorporated while banned or low-volume commodities have been spared. 

National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange has launched a deliverable futures contract in light sweet crude oil today, the exchange said in a circular. Contracts for delivery in September, October and November began trading today. The Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust has been designated as the delivery centre. The trading unit will be 100 barrels, while the delivery unit is 50,000 barrels. The buyer shall be responsible for the freight cost, insurance, import duty and all other taxes and levies on actual basis, the exchange said. Traders have to give delivery intention during the last three days of trading in the contract. The daily price fluctuation limit will be 6 per cent, and if it is reached intraday it would be extended by 3 per cent after 15 minutes. The position limit for members has been set at 1.2 million barrels and that for a client will be 4,00,000 barrels.   

The turnover in commodity exchanges fell 6.4 per cent in the first four months of the current financial year after the government banned futures trading in wheat and rice and changed contracts in some other items. According to data released by commodity market regulator Forward Markets Commission, the turnover declined to Rs 11,79,000 crore during the April-July period as against Rs 12,60,000 crore in the same period last year. Trading in futures market during the second fortnight of July dipped by 2 per cent to Rs 1,64,920 crore compared with Rs 1,68,139 crore in the year-ago period. However, turnover at the three national and 20 regional exchanges during July 16-July 31 period this year improved over the previous fortnight’s business of Rs 1,17,029 crore.

Corporate Sector

Bharti Airtel Broadband and Telephone services have tied up with search engine Google for web-based services like email, chat, on-demand gaming and search to its subscribers. The features offered also include 2GB storage, spam filter, POP access, web SMS, music download and sharing of documents and spreadsheets on a real time basis.

Punj lloyd has secured Rs 590 crore contract from Bharat Oman Refineries for building a sulphur block at Bina Refinery in Madhya Pradesh.

The world’s largest retailer Wal-Mart of the US has signed an agreement with Bharti Enterprises for setting 15 cash-and-carry stores over the next five to seven years. The stores ranging in size between 50,000 - 2 lakh sq ft will come up only in Tier-II and Tier-III cities not in Metros and the first store is expected to open by the end of 2008. The $ 326 billion retail goliath and Bharti will hold 50 percent each in the joint venture.

Tata Tea is planning to set up Joint venture company in Russia to tap opportunities in the tea and coffee space.

Information Technology

India ’s third largest software exporter, Wipro Ltd has entered into an agreement with Nasdaq-listed Infocrossing Inc to acquire the company for around $600 million (Rs 2,400 crore).

Telecom

The total bad debts of domestic mobile operators are roughly estimated at around 3 – 4 per cent of the total post paid revenues. During the last fiscal, total revenue of the industry stood at Rs 45,000 crore, 85 per cent of which came from pre-paid customers. Post-paid revenues, therefore, were roughly Rs 7,000 crore, of which about Rs 250 crore are estimated to be bad debts. According to industry sources, bad debts in India are twice the global average. Given the low average revenue per user (ARPU) of the Indian market, at about Rs 230 (GSM + CDMA), bad debts of 3 – 4 per cent is quite high and unless checked, they could lead to serious cash flow problems. The COAI last year has proposed the sharing of fraud management data among telecom operator, as is done by banks and credit card companies. According to the proposal, a consumer that had defaulted with one cellular operator would be denied a connection by another.

The Tata-Star DTH joint venture, Tata Sky announced that it will invest a massive Rs 2,000 crore to ramp up its subscriber base and expand and scale up existing operations across the country. The company has completed one year of operation after launching on August 8, 2006, wherein it has garnered the promised 1 million subscribers. The company also plans to add more channels to its present 120 plus channels and also to launch personal video recorder.

*These statistics and the accompanying review are a product arising from the work undertaken under the joint ICICI research centre.org-EPWRF Data Base Project.

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