Current Economic Statistics and Review For the
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Theme
of the week:
Situation Assessment Survey: Some Aspects of Farming 2. Use and Availability of Resources for Farming *1.
Introduction A farmer was defined as a person who possessed some land and was engaged in agricultural activities on any part of that land during the 365 days preceding the date of the survey. From this it follows that if a son works in father’s land with his father, he is not a farmer. Farmer households were defined as one, which had at least one farmer. Agricultural
activities include cultivation of field and horticultural crops, growing
of trees or plants such as rubber, cashew, coconut, pepper, coffee, and
tea, animal husbandry, fishery, bee-keeping, vermiculture, sericulture,
etc. The
result of the SAS survey were brought out in five reports; viz., i)
Indebtedness of Farmers, ii) Some Aspects of Farming, iii) Access to
Modern Technology, iv) Household Consumption Expenditure for Farmers and
v) Income, Expenditure and Productive Assets of Farmer Households. In
its report no. 496 titled ‘Some Aspects of Farming’, NSSO has
published data on different aspects of farming such as knowledge,
preference and behaviur, resources availability and use, land use,
irrigation and use of energy in farming. This
note briefly tries to explain the
use and availability of different resources by farmers – resources
meaning fertilizers, organic
manure, improved seeds, pesticides and veterinary services. 2.
Concepts and Definitions Data in the report are separately available for kharif and and rabi seasons. Hence, the concept of different seasons as well as the definition of resources are given below. Crop
seasons
are generally identified by the months of harvesting of a crop during a
normal year. Kharif season includes both autumn kharif or early kharif and
winter kharif or late kharif. Generally, harvesting months of the early
kharif and the late kharif season extend over August to October and
November to January, respectively. Hence in general, the crops, which are
harvested during August to January, were considered as crops of kharif
season. Similarly, the rabbi season includes both rabi and zaid rabi or
summer rabi and the crops are harvested during February –April and
May-June respectively. Thus, crop harvested during February to June was
treated as crops of rabi season. However, there are departures from this
general rule in case of some crops grown in certain region. For example
rice in Tamil Nadu where rice is harvested thrice and the 3 harvests are
termed autumn, winter and summer crops. Respective harvesting period of 3
crops is September to February, January to April and May to June. Hence
autumn and winter paddy were taken as the kharif crop. Similarly in
Karnataka autumn and winter paddy harvested in September to December and
November to March were considered as kharif crops. Generally, rice, jowar,
bajra, maize, ragi, sugarcane, sesamum, groundnut, castor seed, cotton
seed, tobacco and jute are termed as kharif crop and wheat, rabi jowar,
barley, gram, rabi sesamum and linseed are termed as rabi crop. Since most
of the principal crops are grown in only one season, there is little
difficulty in ascertaining the crop season of a particular agricultural
operation. Hence crop season of such a crop determined on the basis of its
month of harvesting. Fertilizers
are
compound given to plants to promote growth. There are usually applied
either viz. The soil, for uptake by plant roots or by foliar feeding for
uptake through leaves. It can be organic or inorganic compounds. Pesticide
is
a substance or a mixture of substances used for preventing, controlling or
lessening the damage caused by a pest. It can be a chemical substance,
biological agent, antimicrobial disinfectant or device used against any
pest. Organic
manure covers
manure made from cattle dung, excreta of animals, rural and urban
composts, other animal wastes, crop residue and green manure. It is
time-tested materials for improving productivity of soils. It improves
soil properties like porosity, water holding capacity, infiltration rate,
etc. 3.
Use of Resources by Farmer Households Estimated
number of farmer households who are using different resources during
kharif and rabi seasons are given in Table : 1
It
can be seen from the table that usage of resources were more common in
kharif than in rabi season. At the all-India level an estimated number of
67.7 million or 75.7 per cent of total farmer households of 89.4 million
reported using fertilisers during kharif season and 54.2 per cent of
farmer households reported using fertilisers during rabi season. Organic
manure was used by 56 per cent and 37.5 per cent of farmer households in
kharif and rabi season, respectively. Similarly, about 46 per cent of farmers were using improved seeds and pesticides in kharif season against 34.3 per cent and 30.8 per cent during rabi season. Farmer
households’ usage of veterinary services is the lowest among all the
resources discussed in both seasons. 4
Timely Use of Resources
Timely use of resources is a must to get better results from their use. It can be seen from Table 2 that more farmer households reported timely use of resources in kharif season than in rabi season. More than 50 per cent of farmer households reported timely use of fertilisers and organic manure in kharif season. In rabi season, less than 40 per cent of farmer households reported timely use of resources except in the case of fertilizers which about 53 per cent so used..
5.
Adequacy of Resources
It
can be seen from Table 3 that more than 90 per cent of farmer households
reported (both in kharif and rabi season) that the resources available
were adequate for their purpose except in case of veterinary services
6.
Quality of Resources Sixty percent of farmer households were of the opinion, that resources available to them were good in both seasons. Contrariwise about 40 per cent farmer households reported that the resources available to them were not satisfactory insofar as quality was concerned.
7.
Distance from Various Resources Table
5 reveals the distance from the village where the different resources are
available for farmer households.
Firstly it can be seen that there is not much difference as far as the distance from the village from where different resources are available during kharif and rabi season. Farmers
in their fields usually prepare organic manure. Hence for more than 65 per
cent of farmers it is available within their villages during both seasons. It can also be seen that for all other resources very few per cent of farmers reported that the resources are available either within village or with in a distance of less than 2 km. This probably means that for many villages the nearest point where resources available as a larger village which as in most cases more than 2 km away. More
than 45 per cent of farmer households had to travel more than 2 km but
less than 10 km for all resources except for organic manure in both
season. More than 15 per cent farmers have to travel more than 10 km from their village for the resources. 8.
Availability of Testing Facility for Resources Testing
facilities were available only for fertilisers and pesticides. At all-
9.
State-wise Review Attached
Appendices depict the use and availability of different resources. Thus
appendix 1 gives state wise use and availability of fertilisers. Appendix
2 shows the use of organic manure and its availability. Appendix and 3
explains the use of improved seeds. Use of pesticides and its availability
in various states are shown in Appendix 4. Finally,
Appendix 5 gives the
state wise picture on the use and availability of veterinary services.
*This
note has been prepared by R. Krishnaswamy
Highlights of Current Economic Scene AGRICULTURE According
to latest Crop Weather Watch Report published by Ministry of Agriculture as on
December 28, 2007, rabi sowings have seen a drop in coverage of major crops due
to dry weather and severe
shortage of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) at the time of sowing.
The wheat plantation, so far
during this year, has covered 249.34
lakh hectares as against that of
263.31 lakh hectares during the same period last season and 279.84 lakh hectares
for the whole of 2006-07. Area under rapeseed-mustard has dropped at 81.94
lakh hectares over last year
cumulative figure of 90.43 hectares. Besides,
acreages for sunflower have declined from 10.33 lakh hectares to 8.63 lakh
hectares, for groundnut from 4.95 to 4.69 lakh hectares, for safflower from 3.38
to 2.87 lakh hectares and for linseed from 4.95 to 4.69 lakh hectares. While
sown acreages covered under gram have fallen from 76.52 lakh hectares to 75.12
lakh hectares, the total area
sown under all the rabi pulses has dipped from 124.32
lakh hectares to 121.32lakh hectares, However,
area under the plantation of urad has gone up from 5.42 lakh hectares to 6.75
lakh hectares, that of moong from 3.0 lakh hectares to 3.16 lakh hectares and
lathyrus from 4.51 lakh hectares to 4.89 lakh hectares. On the other hand, area
under coarse cereals like jowar has touched 46.16 lakh hectares as against the
47.12-lakh hectares of the corresponding period of 2006, while acreage under
maize has gone up from 7.41 lakh hectares to 9.78 lakh hectares and that of
barley from 6.39 lakh hectares to 6.89 lakh hectares. Food
Corporation of India (FCI), the government’s grain procurement and
distribution agency, is earning Rs 85 lakh per month (annually Rs 10.25 crore)
from renting out its surplus storage capacity created by the deficit of stocks.
FCI has storage capacity of 24.1 million tonnes spread across various states of
which 15.1 million tonnes is owned while rest is hired. Due to low stocks, it
has surplus storage capacity in excess of 2 million tonnes of which it has
rented out 407,085 tonnes to various companies and state agencies. The surplus
warehouse space is located in states like Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand,
Rajasthan, Maharashtra,
Food
Corporation of India (FCI) has set a tentative procurement target of 27.6
million tonnes for rice for the current season. The rice procurement by
governmental agencies had slipped down form 27.6 million tonnes in 2005-06 to
25.1 million tonnes in 2006-07. FCI has 11.92 million tonnes during the current
marketing season (October-September) by December 26, 2007 as compared with last
year’s corresponding quantity of 12.18 million tonnes interpreting shortage of
260,000 tonnes. The gap in rice procurement is significantly lagging behind from
last year purchase but it has been picking up slowly owing to higher purchase
from states such as Uttar Pradesh and Orissa.
As
per the notification dated on December 24, 2007 issued by the Director-General
of Foreign Trade, India has extended a ban on the import of palm oil (either
refined or non-refined, but not processed chemically) to all ports in southern
Kerala due to adverse effect implied on the prices of coconut oil. As per the
industrial experts, the ban on palm imports was needed during the year upto June
2007 –08, in the back drop of coconut oil prices dropping over the past two
years and in anticipation of better coconut production in the domestic economy.
However, the The
central government has plans raise the quantum of sugar stocks for which it
would pick up the tab to help ailing mills swamped by excess inventories. It
would also extend freight incentives to domestic sugar mills so that sugar
exports would increase. The
state government of According
to spice board, export of spices and its products from According
to Rubber Board projections, domestic rubber output would reach to 895,000
tonnes while consumption is pegged at 891,000 tonnes during 2008-09 (April –
March), whereas carryover stocks would be around 180,000 tonnes. Consequently,
the prices of commodity are expected to remain under pressure during the next
year. Global rubber industry output is expected to be at 10.31 million tonnes in
2008 as compared with 9.80 million tonnes a year ago. Consumption is estimated
to be at 9.97 million tonnes as compared with that of 9.73 million tonnes in the
previous year. Natural rubber import
in According
to the estimates calculated by the Finance Ministry and Department of
Fertilisers, the fertiliser subsidy bill for the current financial year is
likely to be around Rs 45,000 crore as against the earlier estimates of Rs
48,000 crore, including arrears of Rs 8,000 crore that was carried forward from
the previous fiscal year. The fall in subsidy estimates is due to rupee
appreciation that has absorbed part of the rise in international fertiliser
prices and anticipated lower import. As per the estimates, around 6.7 million
tonnes of urea would be imported, while the imports of diammonium phosphate
(DAP) and muriate of potash (MOP) are likely to be around 3 million tonnes each
by the end of March 2008. The total imports would be lesser by around 2-3 per
cent by the end of the financial year. It is prescribed that the government’s
subsidy bill would go up by at least 30 per cent for the next financial year, on
account of rising global prices of DAP and MOP, which have a share of 50 per
cent on the total subsidy bill. According
to report by Kotak commodity, the prices of agricultural commodities are
expected to remain firm in 2008 on the back of low global inventories, decrease
in acreage and shift in use of biofuel due to high oil prices. It is determined
that wheat prices would follow firm global cues. While, higher demand of maize
would keep prices firm in domestic market. Prices of oilseeds would be pushed up
due to decline in sowing of oilseed crop in rabi season. Turmeric prices are
likely to prevail at higher levels until its arrival starts, whereas, arrival
delays in peeper could stroke bullish sentiments in the domestic market. Sugar
prices, on the contrary, are expected to nosedive during the year. Industry The
growth of 13.3 per cent in manufacturing sector pushed up the index of
industrial production by 11.8 per cent during October 2007 as against 4.5 per
cent in October 2006. Mining sector and electricity sector grew by 3.7 per cent
and 4.2 per cent during the month. Out of the 17 industries, sixteen industries
has registered positive growth. The only industry group, which have registered a
negative growth Metal products and Parts. As per use-based classification, the
sect oral growth rates in October 2007 over October 2006 are 6.2 per cent in
basic goods industries, 20.5 per cent in capital goods and 14.2 per cent in
intermediate goods. Consumer goods rose by 12.5 per cent due to substantial
increase in the production of consumer durables and consumer non-durables.
Consumer durables which was languishing since May 2007 has reported a smart
turnaround in October 2007 with a growth of 9.3 per cent as against a marginal
rise of 0.2 per cent in October 2006. Infrastructure The index of six core infrastructure industries having a combined weight of 26.7 per cent in the index of industrial production registered a slower growth of 4.5 per cent as compared to 9.9 per cent in October 2007. The dismal performance of crude petroleum which decline by 0.1 per cent as against a growth of 9.3 per cent last year, and comparatively lower growth performance of refinery products, electricity, cement, stee lall contributed for the lower rate of growth. However, coal production for the third month in succession registered a faster growth with its production rate registering a growth of 9.2 per cent in October 2007 as against a low growth of 1.9 per cent in October 2006. Inflation The
annual rate of inflation calculated on a point to point basis, stood at 3.45 per
cent for the week ended December 15, 2007 as compared to 3.65 per cent for the
previous week or 5.73 per cent as on December 16, 2006. Primary Articles group
declined marginally to 222.7 from 223.2 for the previous week. Food articles
group decline due to lower price of bajra and fruits and vegetables Index of
Fuel, power, light and lubricants remained stationary at the previous week’s
level of 328.6. The index of manufactured products dipped by 0.2 per cent due to
decline in the prices of textiles, chemicals and chemical products etc. The
final WPI for all commodities had been revised upward from 215.1 to 215.3 for
the week ended October 20, 2007. As a result the rate of inflation calculated on
a point to pint basis stood at 3.11 per cent as compared to 3.02 per cent
provisional. Banking Over
Rs 1,000 crore is lying unclaimed with banks in Pune-based
Janseva Sahakari Bank is acquiring the Koregaon Co-op People’s Bank. The
merger will be effective from January 1, 2008. The bank has also proposed the
merger of Dindayal Nagarik Sahakari Bank (Khandwa, Madhya Pradesh). If accepted
by the RBI, Janseva will be the first non-scheduled urban co-operative bank to
become multi-state through the M&A route. Established in 1972 Janaseva Bank
has deposits of Rs 566 crore against the lending of Rs 331 crore. With 18
branches and more than 20,000 members it has presence in Pune, Satara, Sangli,
Mumbai, Thane and Raigarh. Insurance The
country’s insurance sector is likely to touch Rs 2,00,000 crore mark by 2010
as against the current Rs 50,000 crore. Both life and non-life insurance sectors
are likely to grow by over 200 per cent while the private sector business is
likely to grow at 140 per cent due to adoption of aggressive marketing
techniques, state-owned insurance companies would grow at 35-40 per cent during
the same period, according to industry body Assocham. Financial
Sector Capital
Markets Primary
Market The
largest commodity futures bourse in the country, Multi Commodity Exchange of
India (MCX), is all set to hit the primary market with an initial public
offering (IPO). MCX would sell 10 per cent stake,
through a mix of fresh shares and an offer for sale, to raise around Rs 500-600
crore. In
terms of number of issues and proceeds raised, the Indian markets have been
placed fifth-largest and the seventh-largest, respectively amongst the global
markets, according to Ernst and Young data. Globally, IPOs raised a record
capital of $255 billion till November in 2007, according to the data. There were
as many as 1,739 IPOs during January to November 2007, while another 91 public
issues are estimated to have hit the capital markets during December. In Transformers
and Rectifiers (India) Ltd, a manufacturer of transformers ranging from power
generation, transmission, distribution transformers, industrial transformers and
a wide range of specialty transformers, on December 28, 2007 made its debut on
the capital markets at a premium of 69.89 per cent on the NSE and 50.77 per cent
on the BSE. On the NSE, it touched an intra-day high of Rs 790 and a low of Rs
682.30, before closing the day at Rs 726.10. It made a total turnover of Rs
270.9 crore on the NSE. On the BSE, it hit an intra-day high of Rs 813.75 and a
low of Rs 685.20 but closed finally for the day at Rs 728. The
Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has disposed of a complaint
against the IPO by Anil Ambani-promoted Reliance Power Ltd (RPL) by asking the
promoters to lock-in the entire 20 per cent of their contribution for five
years. The Sebi order clears the hurdles ahead of the mega IPO of $2.5 billion
to $3 billion, which is expected to hit the markets early next year.
Secondary
Market The
markets witnessed a smart rally last week with the benchmark indices, the BSE
sensex and NSE nifty surging by 5.5 per cent each.
In the last week of 2007, the BSE sensex closed with the week-on-week
gain of 5.5 per cent at 20,207 and nifty was up 5.43 per cent at 6079 points.
The rally in the market is attributed to the short covering ahead of
expiry of derivates contracts in the month of December.
Positive cues from the global markets and strong buying from FIIs and
domestic funds led significant up moves across sectors. Small cap stocks
witnessed more buying compared to large caps -the BSE Small-cap Index was up 9.2
per cent. The BSE sensex
began the week with a bang on Monday by rising 691 points, and thereafter
rallied past the 20,000 mark to touch a high of 20,324. All
the sectoral indices of BSE gained over the week, BSE Metal the highest gained
9.17 per cent on account of rising commodity prices in the international
markets, followed by consumer durables-8.51 per cent and BSE Reality by 8.07 per
cent. Due to the buoyancy in the markets, there has been buying across sectors. Foreign
institutional investors (FIIs) turned net sellers on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE)
and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in the current calendar year so far, while
net inflows in the current calendar year, according to the Sebi data, have been
at an all-time high of Rs 66,800 crore. The
category-wise turnover data by BSE and NSE, according to the client code or the
client type, show net outflows of Rs 2,656 crore, while the data collated by
Sebi show net FII inflows of Rs 66,800 crore.
The huge gap between the two figures is because of the compilation of
FIIs inflows. The Sebi definition pertains to all activities undertaken by FIIs
in the Indian securities market, including trades done in the secondary and
primary markets. The FII purchase and sales data compiled by Sebi show the
aggregate purchases at Rs 7.97 lakh crore and sales at Rs 7.30 lakh crore, with
the purchase netting to Rs 66,800 crore. BSE and NSE show aggregate purchases of
Rs 7.28 lakh crore and sales of Rs 7.31 lakh crore, with the sales netting to Rs
2,656 crore. FIIs were net buyers of
Rs 18,854 crore on the secondary markets till October 2007 and turned net
sellers, leading to outflows of Rs 13,689 crore in November and Rs 7,825 crore
in the current month so far. FIIs
have been net sellers in the last two months to make up the losses on account of
the Fresh
investments through participatory notes (P-notes) are flowing into the cash
market in huge quantum. The rush of investments is because foreign institutional
investors (FIIs) have enough headroom to invest through P-notes.
Sources said some of the recent high-profile IPOs had seen a good amount
of money coming in through P-notes, with FIIs, P-notes issues falling within the
Sebi’s stipulation. Sebi has restricted P-notes investments in the derivatives
market, asking the investors to unwind their positions within 18 months. At the
same time, the regulator has permitted P-notes investment in the cash market up
to 40 per cent of the FIIs assets under custody.
The
Sebi has amended the equity listing agreement, asking companies to set up an
agency to monitor the utilisation of issue proceeds.
In a circular, Sebi has said that it has been decided to amend Clause 49
of the equity listing agreement, requiring the issuer company to place the
monitoring report before its audit committee. The audit committee will review
the reports and the statements indicating material deviations in the utilisation
of issue proceeds and makes appropriate recommendations to the board of the
company.
Investors
wealth on the Indian bourses has crossed the Rs 70,00,000-crore milestone for
the first time in history. The total wealth, measured in terms of cumulative
market capitalisation (m-cap) of all the listed companies on the Bombay Stock
Exchange (BSE), has surged to a record high of Rs 70,38,538 crore ($1.7
trillion), the latest data available with the bourses show.
This marks a ten-fold surge in the total market value in just about
four-and-a-half years. It stood at about Rs 7,00,000 crore in May 2003.
The
much-awaited real estate investment trusts (REITs), which invest directly in
real estate projects after collecting funds from investors through stock
exchanges, are set to see their entry in Indian markets after Sebi putting out
draft rules for such trusts on December 28, 2007. According to Sebi, Banks,
public financial institutions, insurance companies and corporate houses can be
trustees of REITs, which should be created under the Indian Trusts Act.
Derivatives
The
last settlement of 2007 featured very low volumes but buoyant sentiment as
short-covering transformed into what appeared to be selective bullishness. The
New Year promises to start on a muted but positive note with the FIIs playing a
key role as always. Index
strategies. Most market regulars appeared to be on holiday in the last week of
the settlement as volumes fell drastically in both cash and derivatives markets.
There was a fair amount of carryover nevertheless.
The
index futures' high positive carries seem to reflect that expectation. The Nifty
closed at 6,080 in spot and the January contract was settled at 6,118 with
February at 6,110 and March at 6,100. There
was a fair amount of open interest (OI) expansion. There is not enough
differential between the January-February contracts to translate into calendar
spreads. Among other
indices, there was no OI in anything except near-term contracts. The Bank Nifty
January future was settled at 9,917.6, while the BankNifty closed at 9,828 in
spot. The January Junior futures settled at 12,455 while the spot index closed
at 12,365. The CNXIT settled at 4821 while the spot closed at 4,824. Also, the
daily volatility of most futures contracts (not just indices) is also showing a
pattern of volatility that exceeds the cash market considerably. .
In the options market, the put call ratio in terms of OI is now around
1.27. This is a healthy level indicating a fair amount of bullishness. OI has
expanded across both puts and calls but overall it is still at a low level,
reflecting the low overall trading volumes. This asymmetry reflects bullish
sentiment and it affects the return to risk ratio in favour of puts. The most
popular option is the 6,000p. Government
Securities Market Primary
Market On
December 26, 2007, RBI auctioned 91-day and 182-day T-bills for the notified
amounts of Rs.500 crore each. The cut-off yields for 91-day and 182-day T-bills
were 7.35 per cent and 7.60 per cent respectively.
Secondary
Market Call
money rates are currently close to the RBI repo rate of 7.75 per cent. The tight
liquidity situation ahead of the year-end was evident from the large recourse to
the RBI’s Repurchase window at the weekend Liquidity Adjustment Facility
Auction. At the auctions, there were 24 bids for Rs 33,865 crore on repo.
Daily trade volume in NDS OM remained low at about Rs 4,500 crore. But
yield spreads remained narrow. The yield spread between 91-day Treasury bill and
10-year YTM was 50 basis points. The inter-yield spread between one-year and 29
years was only about 45 basis points. According
to bankers, the narrow spread was partly on account of the rush by foreign banks
and insurance companies into long-term securities in anticipation of the RBI’s
easing of liquidity. Many foreign banks that swapped their dollars parked in
long-term Government securities. The chase for long-term securities pushed down
the yields of some securities above 10 years. The securities preferred included
the 11.60 per cent 2020 per cent at an YTM of 8.04 per cent, about five basis
points more than the benchmark 13-year security. Besides, insurers also chased
long-term securities. Among the preferred securities were the 8.33 per cent 2036
at an YTM of 8.22 per cent. In fact, many of the life insurers have quietly
exited from the equity markets and preferred to wait for the FIIs to begin
selling again. The fall in nominal yields has begun reflecting in the one-year
real yields. One-year real yield dropped below 4 per cent to 3.95 per cent for
the first time in almost 8 weeks. Besides, the fall in real yield was largely
due to demand for Government papers due to slack credit offtake. Investment
deposit ratio remained above 52 per cent so far this financial year and credit
deposit ratio below 50 per cent. Bond
Market Vijaya
Bank tapped the market by issuing lower tier II bonds to mobilise Rs 200 crore
by offering 9.35 per cent for 10 years. The bond has been rated AA+ by care and
fitch. PNB
Housing Finance Ltd tapped the market by the issuance of bonds by offering 9.30
per cent 10 years for an amount of Rs 100 crore.
The bond has been rated AA+ by crisil and care. Bank
of Baroda is tapping the market by issuance of upper tier II bonds by offering
9.30 per cent for 15 years, with a step-up of 50 bps if call is not exercised at
the end of 10-years for an amount of Rs 500 crore. The bond has been rated AAA
by crisil. Foreign
Exchange Market The rupee remained firm against the dollar to Rs 39.43 over the weekend due to inflows from non-resident Indian investors and inward remittances overwhelmed oil demand. Forward premia up to one month, though hardened to 2.4 per cent, in view of large arbitrage flows. The arbitrage flows were mainly driven by foreign banks attempting to take advantage of the tight liquidity because of advance tax payments. The rupee closed at Rs.39.44 per us dollar on December 28, 2007 as compared with Rs. 39.57 per us dollar as on December 20, 2007. The Rupee moved between Rs.39.39 and Rs.39.49, with a standard deviation of 4 paise during the week. The six-month forward premia closed at 1.72 per cent (annualized) on December 28, 2007. Commodities
Futures derivatives The
year 2007 was disappointing for commodity futures and the new year may be worse
if the government doesn’t pull up its socks in time. Falling volumes, absence
of any initiatives to develop the market and a lack of clarity on many policy
related issues have dampened the enthusiasm of players, intermediaries and even
exchanges. One of the important
decisions being awaited include giving more powers to the market regulator. The
parliamentary committee has recommended more powers to FMC, over those
originally suggested by the government. The bill to amend the Forward Contract
Regulation Act is pending and needs to be reintroduced in the parliament with
changes incorporating the parliamentary committee’s recommendations. According
to FMC Chairman B C Khatu, since the market has already grown, giving more
powers to the regulator would not hurt anyone’s interest. This should be done
with a sense of urgency. According
to Jim Rogers, founder of Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI), the
Indian government needs to be taught the meaning of the commodity market to
become a top investment destination though it may have a bigger size than the
stock market in According
to analysts, gold prices will rise to a record in 2008, increasing for an
unprecedented eighth consecutive year, as investors seek protection from
accelerating inflation. Gold will
probably average $800 an ounce, compared with $696 this year, according to the
median estimate of 37 traders, analysts and investors surveyed by Bloomberg
News. Gold has gained 30 per cent to
$827.20 an ounce in According
to a report by Kotak Commodity, most agricultural commodities will move up
during 2008. The report states that factors such as production problems in Consumers
may continue to pay a hefty premium in 2008 for wheat, maize, edible oil,
pepper, turmeric and cardamom. According to report released by United States
Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE),
the inventory of wheat for 2007-08 are projected lower by 32 million bushels
this month, reflecting higher expected domestic use and exports. Corporate
Sector Leading
foreign funds like Fidelity, ABN Amro, HSBC, Nomura Asset Management Fund and
Emerging Market Fund have together bought around 7.5 per cent in German
auto major Daimler will hold 60 per cent stake in its commercial vehicle joint
venture in Consumer
electronic goods maker Videocon Industries is planning to generate 5,000 MW
power at en estimated cost of Rs 25,000 crore and is scouting for land in
Gujarat, L&T
has bagged three contracts worth Rs 749 crore in Telecom Mobile
tariffs for national long distance calls, which are already the lowest in the
world, are set to drop further by 5-10 per cent. This is because from April 1,
2008, telecom companies will no longer have to pay a portion of their total
revenues towards access deficit charge (ADC), the levy that is used to fund the
BSNL’s operations in rural parts of the country. International
investors, led by Information
Technology UK-based
Barclays Bank plans to set up a captive unit in
*These statistics and the accompanying review are a product arising from the work undertaken under the joint ICICI research centre.org-EPWRF Data Base Project. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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