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Current Economic Statistics and Review For the Week 
Ended March 22, 2008 (12th Weekly Report of 2008)

 

Theme of the week:

 

Explosive Growth in Remuneration of Executives: A Brief Note*

The high level of remunerations earned by Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) of companies has attracted much attention and debate. The corporate sector justifies the increase in compensation packages by saying that the companies are doing well because of them, while others worry that executives are not paid enough to attract the fine talents to corporations in a situation of global competition. According to business analysts, these high pay packages are due to the fierce competition for skilled executives from the new emerging sectors like information technology (IT), business process outsourcing (BPO), telecom, biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. Traditionally, of course, technology and telecom services companies were known to offer high remuneration, but now retail, pharmaceuticals and engineering sectors are fast catching up.

This issue again came to limelight last year, when the Prime Minister (PM) at the annual general meeting of Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) suggested that the top corporate CEOs should consider a cap on their remuneration.  

PMs Commandants at the CII National Conference

In his 10 commandments issued at the CII National Conference, the PM advice to “resist paying excessive remuneration to promoters and senior executives and discourage conspicuous consumption” became a major issue of debate. The PM said that profit maximisation by companies should be within bounds of decency. Companies must resist excessive remuneration to promoters. The PM felt that the industry should be proactive in so far as matters of affirmative action were concerned.

He further said that “there is a limit to corporate greed” and also said that “in a country with extreme poverty, industry needs to be moderate in the emolument levels adopted.”

 

Salaries of CEOs Complex

Salaries of executives are suddenly in the spotlight after the PM’s comment on rising CEO’s salaries. Recently, there have been heated debates over how much Indian CEOs earn and whether their exorbitant salaries are justified, which requires a value judgment. It is beyond the scope of this note which has a more modest objective of studying the extent of increases that have occurred in executive remunerations during the past few years.

Complex Issues faced in Studying Executive Remunerations

Fortunately, the Companies Act 1956 and the Companies (Particulars of Employees) Rules, 1975 insist on details being published on the remunerations of directors as well as highly paid executives in the company annual reports with details of remuneration received, designation, etc. As per the extant regulations, as from the year 2002-03, the companies were expected to provide the list of directors and executives/employees drawing an annual remuneration of Rs 2 lakh and above. Broadly, while remunerations of executives/employees includes salaries and perks, those of CEOs and directors of company boards includes, in addition to salaries and perks, commissions. 

A glance at the annual reports of top companies suggests that the number of directors and executives/employees has shot up rather dramatically in recent years. The study would involve an arduous task if some meaningful results have to be discussed from it. We have taken this as a major long-term goal. For the present, we have narrowed   the objective to a manageable level.

Accordingly, we have chosen about 217 directors/executives from about 67 company annual reports and tried to examine the trends in their remunerations. Even in undertaking this study, we have faced a number of problems. The foremost of them has been the frequent changes in jobs and shifts from companies by the executive class  and therefore, it has been extremely difficult to locate individuals serving in different companies during the last few years.

The second problem has been that some executives have served some companies for part of a year and hence their full annual remuneration is not found. Third, there are a number of family concerns in which top executives constitute a part of the family-owning categories, in whose case it has been difficult to make a distinction between pure remuneration and board determined commissions.

In the present study, we have made a more modest attempt to identify the number of directors and executives for obviating this problem, we have concentrated on directors and executives amongst the 217 who were drawing more than Rs 2 crore of remuneration per annum in 2006-07, employed in 67 companies for which comparable data is also available for the period 2002-03.

The number of executives working in these companies in the latest year 2006-07 is 224. When we screened these executives for and tried to trace their presence in the initial years 2002-03 as well as in the terminal year 2006-07, the task has turned out to be very arduous.

Nevertheless, we could get the names of 107 executives found to be common in both the years 2002-03 and 2006-07. Taking this group of 107 executives as the benchmark, we have listed them in the descending order of their remuneration as per the year 2006-07. This study, therefore, consists the remuneration packages of these 107 executives in the two different points namely, 2002-03 and 2006-07 based on concrete data published in the annual reports of their respective companies. For an optical view of the names of the executives, companies for which they were working in 2006-07, their designation and remuneration in two years have been displayed in Appendix A accompanying this note. 

Explosive Growth in Remunerations

In the year 2002-03, the aggregate annual remuneration paid to the foresaid top 107 executives of 67 major companies was around Rs 147 crore which rose to Rs 467 crore in 2006-07, registering a sharp growth of 218 per cent in five years (Annexure A). 

Table 1 indicates distribution of executives by range of increases in remuneration. It shows that over 60 per cent have received remuneration increases beyond 200 per cent.  Around 21 executives have received hefty pay packages in 2006-07 on account of explosive growth of more than 1000 per cent in their annual remuneration compared to their earnings in 2002-03. Annual remuneration of 16 executives has been augmented by 400 per cent and pay packages of 43 executives have increased by around 200 per cent in 2006-07 as against their annual salaries in 2002-03.

 

Table 1: Percentage increase in 2006-07 of Executives Salaries over 2002-03

Range of

per cent increase

Number of

Executives

0-200

43

201-400

27

401-600

11

600-1000

5

Above 1000

21

Total

107

Source: Compiled by EPWRF

 

The explosive nature of the increases in remunerations in recent years is brought out by the fact that as against 107 executives drawing more than Rs 2 crore per annum in 2006-07, there were only 17 executives similarly earning more than Rs 2 crore per annum in 2002-03 (Table 2).

Table 2: Rang-wise Number of Executives Remuneration

Salary Range

2002-03

Per cent

2006-07

Per cent

Less than 200 lakhs

90

84.1

*

0.0

201 – 300 lakhs

8

7.5

43

40.2

301 – 500 lakhs

4

3.7

34

31.8

501 – 1000 lakhs

5

4.7

23

21.5

Above 1001 lakhs

0

0.0

7

6.5

Total

107

100.0

107

100.0

 * - Cut-off point used for the study.

Source: Compiled by EPWRF.

 

As per the present study, in 2002-03 there was not a single executive being paid more than Rs 10 crore, whereas owing to dramatic increases in CEOs salaries in recent years, there are 7 executives earning above Rs 10 crore per annum in 2006-07.

Sectoral Growth in Remuneration

The sectoral analysis of 107 executives in the present study reveals that there are around 87 executives in the manufacturing sector, seven in services sector and thirteen in IT-related activities who are drawing more than Rs 2 crore per annum.

 

Table 3: Sector-wise Number of Executives and Remuneration

 

    Sectors

 

No. of

Executives

in 2006-07

Remuneration

2002-03

(Rs lakh)

2006-07

(Rs lakh)

Increase

(Rs lakh)

Percentage

Increase

Manufacturing

87

12232

38589

26357

215.5

Services

7

736

2062

1326

180.0

IT

13

1704

6021

4316

253.3

Total

107

14672

46672

31999

218.1

Source: Compiled by EPWRF.

 

Not only IT and services sector has registered robust growth in pay packages but the manufacturing sector executives have also witnessed a rise of 215 per cent in their annual remuneration (Table 3). 

Indian Directors’ Pay Hikes Outpace Profits

However, as the analysis shows, the increase in remunerations has definitely not led to a corresponding increase in corporate performance.

Currently, a director’s total remuneration cannot exceed 11 per cent of a company’s profits and for anything beyond this amount, a company has to seek approval from the government. For loss making companies, different ceilings are prescribed. However, agreeing with the recommendations of the J J Irani Committee that helped draft the new Companies Bill, the Ministry of Corporate Affairs is all set to give companies, full freedom to decide the remuneration of their directors by doing away with the current ceiling of 11 per cent of profits.

A few tentative Issues

The CEOs of most Indian companies are family members who have not been competing with others for the top job. Often, the very high salaries paid to top executives, particularly in family-owned enterprises, lead to a direct conversion of corporate wealth into private wealth and not for the general health of the company. Aside from gross inequality that this phenomenon spawns, a more pertinent question relates to how company boards justify such high remunerations. With promoters exercising complete control over boards, the decision making process is hardly democratic and they lack credibility.

As per the explosive increases in remunerations in recent years, we do not wish to pass any value judgment at this stage when our study is as yet at a preliminary stage.

Nevertheless, we wish to quote a few learned observations on the phenomenon:

i)          Many HR consultants say that the rise in top management salaries is the result of market forces. Dutta of price Waterhouse says the increase “has nothing to do with profits of a company, it is a demand supply situation.”

ii)         Rajiv Kumar, director and chief executive of Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), says that rising director compensation is the result of increasing convergence between Indian and global remunerations.

iii)      Share holders, Government and all other stakeholders need to look into the matter and take necessary steps, such as linking the managerial remuneration with the long term performance of the company and not just linking it to the firms net profits (media suggestion).

iv)        Suitable provisions have to be incorporated in the Indian Companies Act so that managerial personnel would become more accountable to their acts of commissions and omissions (media suggestion).

References:

Business India , December 2, 2007.

Various Company Annual Reports.

 

* - This note is prepared by Bipin K Deokar  with help from Anita Prabhu  for tables.

 

 

 

Highlights of  Current Economic Scene

AGRICULTURE  

As per the data published by the central government, procurement of rice as on March 12, 2008, has improved by 5.14 per cent to 208 lakh tonnes, around 10 lakh tonnes higher than the previous year. Procurement agencies have collected 76.9 lakh tonnes of rice from Punjab , 33 lakh tonnes from Chhattisgarh, 25.2 lakh tonnes from Uttar Pradesh, 15.6 lakh tonnes from Haryana and 14.6 lakh tonnes from Orissa. It is estimated that total rice procurement this year would be around 276 lakh tonnes as against 250.6-lakh tonnes last year.

 

The coverage under wheat has gone up in the states like Punjab and Haryana to 34.80 lakh hectares from 34.67 lakh hectares and 24.15 lakh hectares from 23.76 lakh hectares, respectively. According to Food Corporation of India (FCI), it is estimated that procurement this year would be close to 135 lakh tonnes, of which Punjab is likely to contribute about 85 lakh tonnes, while Haryana about 40 lakh tonnes. The contribution from these two states would account for 90 per cent of the total wheat in the national buffer stock.

To encourage wheat procurement in the states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar, the central government has hiked the commission for societies and sub-agents to 2.5 per cent on the lines of the Arthiya Commission in Punjab and Haryana for the rabi marketing season of 2008-09.

To ensure higher wheat procurement in the rabi marketing season 2008-09, the central government has bought 8,904 tonnes of wheat from farmers in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat , as the procurement season has already begun in these states from March 15, 2008. Of the total procurement, 8,344 tonnes of wheat has been procured from Madhya Pradesh and 560 tonnes from Gujarat . Though the government had not bought wheat in substantial quantities from these two states until last year, but from this year to fulfill the target of procurement and to import less from overseas market the government has started its procurement operations .earlier in the current season.

The Kerala Government has sought an urgent financial assistance from the central government to meet the heavy losses caused by northeast monsoon since March 12, 2008. According to preliminary estimates, the losses are amounted to Rs 50 crore till date. It is reported that nearly 20,000 acres of land is severely damage and standing paddy crop is affected badly and the loss is likely to go up further. The state government has sanctioned Rs 12 crore as an initial measure to tide over the serious situation.

Reduction in import duty of edible oil

in per cent)

Edible Oil

Previous

Current

Crude palm oil

(Crude palmolein oil)

45

20

Refined palm oil

(RBD palmolein)

52.5

27.5

Crude mustard

& rapeseed oil

75

27.5

Colza oil

75

27.5

Canola oil

75

27.5

Crude sunflower oil

40

20

Refined sunflower oil

50

20

Source: Media

To curb inflation, the central government has reduced import duties on several varieties of edible oil as well as milled and non-milled rice. The duty on milled and semi-milled rice has been reduced from 70 per cent to zero, which would be valid upto March 31, 2009. In order to cater the increasing demand of edible oil in the domestic market and given rising prices of edible oils in the international market, duty on imports of these oils has been slashed drastically as shown in the accompanied table. As per industrial estimates, domestic consumption of edible oil in India has been around 125 million tonnes per annum, of which 56.15 million tonnes have been imported.

 

 

 

Import of vegetable oil  (Nov 07- Feb08)

(in tonnes)

Month

Edible

 Oil

Non

Edible

 Oil

Total

Nov-07

347,320.00

80,592.00

427,912.00

Dec-07

276,782.00

28,494.00

305,276.00

Jan-07

457,601.00

55,652.00

513,253.00

Feb-07

430,992.00

84,237.00

515,229.00

Nov 07-Feb 08

1,512,695.00

248,975.00

1,761,670.00

Nov 06-Feb 07

1,083,141.00

177,848.00

1,260,989.00

 Source: Media

 According to statistics available from Solvent Extractor Association of India (SEAI) the import of edible oil during February 2008 has stood at 430,992 tonnes as compared with 150,927 tonnes during the corresponding period last year. Similarly, imports of non-edible oil have also shot up by 342 per cent at 84,237 tonnes as against last year’s 19,056 tonnes. Despite of reduction in duties and freeze in tariffs, the prices of oil have shot up sharply. It is expected that in the near future, the share of imports could reach 45 to 50 per cent, as domestic production is not increasing rapidly as per the demand. Domestic prices of edible oil have increased by 10-28 per cent since January 2008. Similarly prices of refined soyabean oil have jumped by 27.78 per cent, groundnut oil by 13.08 per cent, rapeseed oil by 10.34 per cent, RBD palmolein oil by 25.10-per cent and sunflower oil by 19.69 per cent. Since November 2007 the imports of vegetable oil (edible oil and non edible oil) have soared by 40 per cent, even due to the peak domestic crushing season is in progress.

 

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has increased statutory minimum price (SMP) for sugarcane at Rs 81.18 per quintal, as on March 21, 2008, for a basic recovery of 9 per cent subject to a premium of Rs 0.90 for every 0.1 percentage point increase in the recovery above that level for the 2008-09 sugar season from Rs 80.25 per quintal of last year. . This would be paid to the sugarcane growers during the season starting from October 2008.

 

Prices of molasses have risen rapidly since November 2007 in the sugarcane growing states like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra by 50 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively, due to higher demand for production of ethanol and liquor. It is projected that sugarcane production during this year would be lowered to 26 million tonnes, owing to which molasses production would also reduce to 11.5 million tonnes, leading to rise in price. Prices of molasses would show an upward trend. Even increase in packaging and bottling costs would have an impact on the prices of molasses as a result of which, it is expected that alcohol prices would rise by 15-20 per cent this year. Therefore, most of the alcohol companies are trying to combat the impact by purchasing readymade spirits from the domestic market for production.

 

The Tobacco Board has fixed Karnataka’s tobacco crop flue cured virigina (FCV) output at 100 million kg for 2008-09, showing an increase of 5.26 per cent over previous year crop size of 95 million kg. The key reasons for hiking the states crop size are strong global demand for FCV tobacco varieties and sharp fall in cultivation in traditional areas of Europe . Also, the demand from foreign buyers was viable last year (2007-08) with 35-37 companies depending on the auction platform compared with 30 companies last year (2006-07).

 

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has approved schemes worth Rs 732 crore to improve the quality and output of the crops like tea, coffee and spices. Of which, Rs 230 crore are allocated for tea, Rs 310 crore for coffee and Rs 192 crore for spices, as these funds would improve the farm productivity and build up greater capacity for producers. As in case of tea, exports have been sluggish for the last one-year due to stiff competition from countries like Srilanka and Kenya .

 

The Commerce Ministry has announced the price spectrum band for 2007 for rubber, coffee and tea to give financial relief to the growers as prices of these commodities fall below a specified level under the Price Stabilisation Fund Scheme (PSFS). It is expected that tea growers would get more benefits as both coffee and rubber growers had a boom period in 2007. The Price Spectrum Band, calculated for tea has revealed that the annual average domestic price for tea was Rs 64.66 per kg during 2007 and it has been categorised as ‘normal year’. On the other hand, for coffee Arabica, the annual average domestic price during 2007 was Rs 112.70 per kg and it has been categorised as ‘boom year’. Similarly, for Robusta, it was Rs 75.76 per kg during 2007, which was categorised as ‘boom year’. In case of rubber, the annual average domestic price was Rs 90.06 a kg during 2007, because of which the year has been categorised as ‘boom year’. Thus, on the basis of price spectrum band in 2007, 15,289 tea growers, who witnessed a ‘normal year’, would receive financial assistance of Rs 0.76 crore from the PSF Trust Fund during 2008-09. On the contrary, the other two commercial crops, viz., coffee and rubber growers would not get any relief as they come under ‘boom year’ categorisation.

The study undertaken by planning commission has revealed that nearly about 42 per cent of subsidised foodgrains have been distributed under Target Public Distribution System (TPDS), covering 18 states. The offtake per household has shown improvement of about 75 per cent covering categories like below poverty line (BPL) and Antyodaya Ann Yojana (AAY). Based on evaluation studies and feedback received from states, a nine-point action plan has been jointly formulated by the central and the state governments to strengthen the TPDS. It is estimated that during 2007-08, the amount of subsidy for food, fertiliser and petroleum particularly LPG would be at Rs 64,929 crore.

Global Prices upto

December 2007

($ / MT)

Year

Wheat

Rice

2000

114.1

202.4

2001

126.8

172.8

2002

148.1

191.9

2003

146.1

197.6

2004

156.9

237.7

2005

152.4

286.3

2006

192

304.9

2007

369

360.7

Source: Media

According to Greg Wagner (director of grain trade consultancy, Chicago), with global economies continuing to expand, the demand for foodgrains are increasing at a faster rate while the supply has been decreasing, as a result prices for foodgrains are rising world wide. In 2007, the world supply of wheat was affected, due to drought in Australia ; freeze in US and lower production in Ukraine . The price surge was also affected, due to reports by US law, as it has projected that utilisation of ethanol for automobiles would be doubled to 15 billion gallons by 2015. In turn, this has made an effect on both wheat and corn as these are used as feed-grain for production of ethanol. Experts opine that urgent expansion of foodgrains production across all the countries would help control rising prices.

 

 

Industry

A substantial fall was registered in the growth rate of index of industrial production during January 2008 as compared to January 2007. The growth in the index of industrial production during January 2008 at 5.3 is less than half that recorded in January 2007 (11.6 per cent). All the three major groups contributed for this slow down. As a result during the fiscal so far registered IIP index rose by 8.7 per cent as compared to 11.2 per cent last year. Mining sector and electricity sector grew by 1.8 per cent and 3.3 per cent during the month. The growth of manufacturing sector is at 5.9 per cent during January is much below to that of 12.3 per cent recorded last January. Out of the 17 industries, two industries declined and five industries registered double digit growth.. As per use-based classification, the sectoral growth rates in January 2008 over January 2007 are 3.5 per cent in basic goods industries, 2.1 per cent in capital goods and 7.0 per cent in intermediate goods. Consumer goods recorded an increase of 7.0 per cent.

 

Infrastructure

The index of six core infrastructure industries having a combined weight of 26.7 per cent in the index of industrial production with base 1993-94 registered a slower growth of 4.2 per cent as compared to 8.3 per cent in January 2008. The dismal performance of exhibited by all the six core industries in January 2008 resulting the core index registering a growth of 5.5 per cent during the fiscal so far as against 8.9 last year. crude petroleum production declined by 0.2 per cent during January 2008 against a growth rate of 4.7 per cent last year. All the other five core industries witnessed lower growth performance. Thus  refinery products, electricity, cement, steel and coal all contributed for the lower rate of growth.

 

Inflation

The annual rate of inflation calculated on a point-to-point basis, rose by 5.92 per cent for the week ended March 08,2008 as compared 6.51 per cent as on March 10,2007.

 

Index of Primary Articles group rose by 0.3 per cent to 229.8 from 229.0 for the previous week. Food articles group rose by 0.3 per cent. Index of non-food articles rose by 0.5 per cent mainly due to higher prices many oil seeds. raw cotton, raw jute.

The index for the major group Fuel, Power, Light and Lubricants gone up by 0.1 per cent due to higher prices of furnace oil.

 

Increase in the prices of iron and steel and food products like edible oils pushed up the the index of manufactured products which registered an increase of 1.3 per cent

 

The final WPI for all commodities had been revised upward from 216.7 to 217.8 for the week ended January 8,2008. As a result the rate of inflation calculated on a point-to-point basis stood at 4.36 per cent as compared to 3.83 per cent provisional.

 

Banking

Bank of America Corp, the second biggest US bank by assets, may take a record $6.5 billion loan-loss provision in the first quarter to cover possible future losses in its home equity and mortgage portfolios.

 

Financial Market

Capital Markets

Primary Market

Cochin International Airport Limited (CIAL), the consortium that runs the Kochi international airport, plans to raise Rs 2,500 crore through an initial public offer (IPO) between April and December 2009.  The IPO, which will divest 26 per cent of CIAL’s equity, will finance an aerotropolis, a maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) unit, and an aviation academy in the vicinity of the airport. “Of the 26 per cent, 20 per cent will be for the public and 6 per cent will be given as employee stock options,” said S Bharat, managing director, CIAL. It is planning a tie-up with two international airport developers to finance its projects, ahead of the public offer. The consortium will include a technical partner and a financial investor and will be in place by May this year, according to company executives. 

 

Secondary Market

Weak global markets and heavy selling by foreign institutional investors led the markets suffer losses for third straight week. Lack of buying at lower levels accentuated the fall. Volatility was high in the truncated week with only three trading sessions. The market remained closed on Thursday (20 March 2008) on account of Id-E-Milad and on Friday (21 March 2008) on account of Good Friday.  The BSE Sensex lost 765.69 points or 4.85 per cent to 14,994.83 in the week ended Wednesday, 19 March 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty slipped 171.85 points or 3.62 per cent to 4573.95 in the week. The BSE Mid-Cap index lost 619.35 points or 9.40 per cent to 5,964.10 for the week ended Wednesday, 19 March 2008. The BSE Small-Cap index slumped 857.30 points or 10.61 per cent to 7,222.20 in the week. The BSE Sensex is down 6,211.94 points or 29.29 per cent from its all time high of 21,206.77 hit on 10 January 2008.

 

On the global front, the fifth-largest US investment bank Bear Stearns said on Friday, 14 March 2008, its liquidity position had deteriorated significantly and a cash crunch forced it to turn to the Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase for emergency funds. JPMorgan said on 16 March 2008, that it would buy Bear Stearns in an all-stock deal, and that the Fed would fund up to $30 billion of Bear Stearns' less liquid assets. The US Federal Reserve officials, acknowledging threats to the economy from slow growth, elevated inflation and too little liquidity, cut interest rates yesterday by less than most investors expected.  Instead of reducing its 3 per cent target for the overnight lending rate by either 100 or 125 basis points, a Federal Open Market Committee majority opted for only a 75 basis-point cut.

 

The market-wide weighted price to earnings (P/E) multiple, which soared to an unsustainable level of over 28.1 when the Sensex hit its all-time high of 21,282 on January 8, has come down to 19.19, with the benchmark index hovering around 15k levels.  The weighted P/E of the BSE stocks has also declined from 27.4 to 17.24. This is largely on account of the 30 per cent plus correction in the market prices between January 8 and on March 17.

 

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) said broking houses will have to provide for margining for all institutional trades in the cash markets with effect from April 21. The move brings institutional business on par with the retail segment. At present, there is no margin system for institutional trades while brokers charge margins from retail customers for their trades. “In order to provide level playing field to all the investors in the cash market as in the case of derivatives market, all institutional trades in the cash market would be subject to payment of margins as applicable to transactions of other investors,” said a SEBI circular. In the futures & options segment, there is margining system for both retail and institutional trades. The margining decision coincides with SEBI’s decision to allow short selling, and securities lending and borrowing with effect from April 21. Brokers said the move was necessary as at present all the trades in the cash market by the institutional investors are delivery-based trades. Following the implementation of short selling from April 21, brokers, as part of their risk mitigation exercise, need to provide for margins as the institutional trades may also be short selling in nature; hence, the extra precaution.  The decision to impose margins for institutional trades will have a major impact on the trading volumes of small and mid-rung broking houses.  “We will have to provide for the margins ourselves to attract institutional trades,” said a head of a brokerage house. “Only big brokerage houses, which have big money, will survive in the new environment,” he said. 

Real estate stocks have been hit the hardest on the bourses with many of them, including Sobha Developers, Purvankara Projects and Ansal Housing, hitting one-year lows after investors fled sensing a slowdown in property rates.  With Wednesday’s fall, the BSE Realty Index fell 48 per cent from its all-time high of 13,647.15 on January 14, 2008, as compared to 28 per cent decline in the benchmark BSE’s Sensex from its peak of 20,873.33 on January 8.  The sector, which is top five in terms of market capitalisation rankings two months ago, slipped to number eight positions on Wednesday. 

 

Market regulator SEBI is investigating the alleged insider trading activities in the shares of Mukesh Ambani-run Reliance Petroleum, Rajya Sabha. "SEBI has informed that it has initiated an examination in the matter," Minister of state for Finance P K Bansal said in a written reply. Bansal was replying to a query by Amar Singh (SP) on whether the government had taken any action against the promoters/affiliates of Reliance Industries Ltd regarding the recent mammoth insider trading activities in the shares of Reliance Petroleum Ltd. Reliance Industries Ltd had raised Rs 4,023 crore by divesting 4.01 per cent of its stake in Reliance Petroleum Ltd, the company said on November 24. While actual date for the stake sale is not known, the shares of Reliance Petroleum had moved by a wide margin between late October and early November.

 

Derivatives

Given expectations of high volatility and falling prices, the derivatives market usually sees action and trading volumes have improved in the past fortnight, though cash trading volumes have fallen. FIIs continue to be the market-makers since they hold around 44 per cent of open positions. The cash Nifty closed at 4,573.95, while the March, April and May contracts were held at 4,572.70, 4,552.90 and 4,534.45, respectively. Among other indices, the best liquidity is in the Bank Nifty, where the cash index closed at 6,456, while the March future was settled at 6,439. The Nifty Junior closed at 7,431, while the future settled at 7,418. 

 

The Nifty Midcaps 50 closed at 2,241, while the futures closed at 2,170. The CNX IT closed at 3,501, while the future was held at 3,511. The lack of liquidity in April futures is crippling.

 

Government Securities Market

Primary Market

Nine State Governments and the Union Territory of Puducherry have announced the sale of 10-year SDLs for an aggregate amount of Rs.3,247 crores on March 26, 2008.

 

Secondary Market

Finance Minister P Chidambaram said on Monday, 17 March 2008, there is tremendous pressure on the government to fight inflation. The government's intention is to ensure and make all efforts to sustain growth of more than 8 per cent and close to 9 per cent in 2007/08, Chidambaram added. The annual inflation rate jumped to an 11-month high of 5.92 per cent for the week-ended March 8, setting off alarm bells and prompting expectations of swift fiscal policy measures to contain the price rise. In a move aimed at containing inflation, the government today slashed import duties on several varieties of edible oil as well as milled and non-milled rice. The duty cuts will be effective from midnight of March 20-21, 2008, a finance ministry release said. The cut in imports of milled and semi-milled rice will be valid till March 31, 2009.  Owing to surging demand, international prices of edible oil have exhibited a sharp and steady upward trend in recent months. 

 

Inflation is ruling higher and this has become a concern for the market. “Higher inflation has ruled out any hopes of the interest rate cut by the Reserve bank of India ,” said a dealer. Excess positions built up by banks have to be shed to avoid losses during the valuation. The 1-10 year YTM spreads decreased by 1 bps to 10 bps. The yield of the benchmark 10 year security -7.99 per cent 2017 was at 7.61 per cent  as against 7.62 per cent  during the previous week.

 

RBI conducted an Additional Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) auction on March 17, 2008. RBI injected Rs.4,200 crores into the system through the special 7-day Repo auction.

 

Bond Market

State Bank of Hyderabad (SBH) will raise Rs 900 crore to meet Basel-II compliance requirements for Accounting Standards 15 (AS15) as well as for the next year’s expansion plans. Rs 500 crore had been mobilised so far via the upper tier-II mode since March 18 this year, while the remainder would be sourced through perpetual bonds. The fund-raising has become necessary due to a one-time provisioning of around Rs 450 crore by the bank to meet AS15 requirements

 

The Reserve Bank of India is planning to allow domestic companies to hedge their oil purchases in a bid to lower the impact of volatility in oil prices.  Indian oil firms purchase crude from overseas and process it in India . This, in turn, is sold to the domestic companies at the spot price (the prevailing price at that point of time).  The companies cannot hedge their future payments to the domestic oil firms without getting the RBI’s approval. By the time approval is obtained, the oil prices go up. Even if the payments are done in rupees, the underlying base price is in dollars and keeps fluctuating.  The proposed norms will allow Indian companies to hedge their payments without seeking the RBI’s nod. To begin with, oil companies will be able to hedge 50 per cent of their receivables based on the previous years’ turnover and book forward contracts upto one year maturity. Similarly, the oil marketing companies are not allowed to hedge their refining margins, which are maintained in dollars, without the RBI’s prior permission. The refinery margin is the profit accruing from a barrel of crude oil in terms of the value of refined products such as petrol, diesel and heating oil. The RBI will enlist the services of banks with proper risk management procedures to help the oil companies book forward contracts without its prior approval.

 

Foreign Exchange Market

After the Reserve Bank of India , it is now the income tax authorities who have put banks and companies disclosing losses in their foreign exchange derivative structures under the scanner.  The income tax department reportedly discussed the issue with many banks and companies even before the advance tax payment for the fourth quarter of 2007-08. “Banks and companies have been called to explain the extent of losses and structures initiated in both Indian and overseas markets through their branches and subsidiaries,” a source said. The exercise was mainly undertaken to assess the tax impact of such losses. 

 

While the effect on tax collections might be negligible this year, the possibility of a bigger impact in 2008-09 was not being ruled out. Foreign exchange derivatives are used by banks and companies to hedge their foreign exchange risks arising from overseas operations. These operations include foreign currency loans and bonds to raise funds and export receivables denominated in dollars. Besides forex derivatives, banks and companies are also exposed to credit derivatives including credit-linked notes based on loans and bonds raised in the overseas market.  The RBI has discovered that most banks have entered into derivatives transactions as purely speculative instruments and not for hedging their existing credit and investment portfolios. Speculative transactions are merely aimed at gaining from unwanted movements in currencies and interest rates without the benefit of underlying positions. 

 

The portfolio of foreign exchange derivatives has turned red following turbulence in the global equity market and the adverse movement of stable currencies such as Swiss franc. The tax department will try to ascertain whether banks and companies entered into transactions to hedge their portfolio or for purely speculative purposes. Speculative gains or losses might not be allowed to be set off against business income for taxation purposes. Most Indian banks and companies have suffered severe losses in their exposure to foreign currency derivatives.

 

The dollar fell below 96 yen for the first time in 12 years earlier today after the Federal Reserve’s emergency weekend cut in its discount interest rate and the sale of Bear Stearns Cos. to JPMorgan Chase & Co.  The dollar dropped to a record low against the euro and the Swiss franc as the Fed made its first weekend change in borrowing costs since 1979 and Bear Stearns was acquired for less than a 10th of its March 14 value.

 

The rupee fell to a six-month low of 40.72 against the dollar as losses in stocks raised speculation that global funds will reduce their local share holdings.  While the news of Bear Stearns sale and US Fed’s emergency rate cut saw the rupee fall to 40.84, the weakest since September 2007, it appreciated later.  With Monday’s movement, the rupee has depreciated 3.76 per cent since a high of 39.29 on January 10. This comes against an appreciation of nearly 9 per cent seen during 2007.  The fall has been steepest against the yen with the rupee-yen value depreciating almost 19 per cent from 35.29 in the beginning of the 2008 to 41.90 now. Similarly, it has slipped 12 per cent against the euro.  The depreciation against other major currencies was more acute than the dollar since all other currencies have appreciated against the greenback.  Yen is at a 12-year high against the dollar at 96 and the euro too is at a record high against dollar at 1.5758. 

 

In the domestic market, the rupee is depreciating against the US currency. So, there is double depreciation on a cross-currency basis. According to a banking analyst, the primary reason for the rupee to depreciate is lack of fresh FII inflows unlike last year. 

 

Commodities Futures derivatives

Global commodity and financial markets continue to remain shaky despite the March 18 decision of the US Federal Reserve to slash lending rates by 75 basis points, bringing the Fed funds rate to 2.25 per cent. This was the lowest level since February 2005 and is 300 basis points lower from the 5.25 per cent level seen in September. The rate cut followed an emergency reduction of 0.25 per cent on the Fed discount rate, announced on March 16. The US Fed expects the move to inject liquidity into the markets and shore up the weakening US economy. But even as the Fed move imparted some buoyancy to the stock markets, it has become another price driver in the commodity markets, which are now being driven by investment demand apart from fundamentals. The year 2008 started off on a buoyant note for the commodities, including precious metals, with the market hitting new highs in each successive month. The sharp increases caught both analysts and punters the world over on the wrong foot. And they were again not prepared when the commodities market plummeted over the last week, nullifying most of the gains seen since January. The commodities prices retreated sharply from their recent highs triggered by a recovery in the dollar following the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a massive liquidation by funds in the commodities bourses. However, conflicting signals remain, with the Fed cutting rates by only 0.75 per cent contrary to market expectation of a 1 per cent cut.

 

The market is also confused due to the sudden shift in Fed's focus from economic growth to inflation control, which could further push the world’s largest economy towards recession. Thus, while the March 16 rate cut was announced with the aim of supporting the financial markets, the March 18 cuts were announced with the aim of controlling inflation. The dynamics of the commodity markets in general have also changed, as prices are now being driven by investment demand besides fundamentals. For example, crude oil prices surged to astronomical highs on increasing investment demand as US stocks performed poorly on signs of a recession. Weakening dollar also supported the price rise of ‘dollar denominated crude’. This was even as the market ignored the fact that the US inventories were improving, as oil demand in the largest economy was showing some sluggishness due to poor economic activity and seasonal weakness. Though, there is good demand for crude oil from developing nations, the recent sharp rise in prices does not seem to have been based on fundamentals.

 

Similarly, in the soy complex and wheat, the prices surged sky high, with the gains again linked to the investment demand on weakening dollar and plunging stocks. Though the strong fundamentals–due to lower production–justify higher prices, the fundamentals were largely ignored despite a good soybean crop in South America and slightly shrinking demand at higher levels. Thus, overheated prices are correcting now to find levels justified by fundamentals, with funds booking profits at the first sign of weakness.

 

The United States Agriculture Department (USDA) monthly report for March reveals stocks in most grains and oilseeds have reached historically low levels. In the case of rice, where the stocks are slightly better, it is a reflection of producing countries trying to curb exports to meet domestic needs and partly due to declining per capita consumption. Rice prices have unusually gone up in the recent past and it is now feared that any significant drop in prices will be triggered only after mid-2008 when the new crop sowing prospects are known.

 

World wheat production during 2006 dropped significantly to 593.2 million tonnes compared to the previous two years. Sharply lower Australian crop and sizeable imports by countries facing deficit, led to steady drawdown in stocks. The year 2007 continued to feature mounting shortages with increasing usage, although production slightly improved to 603.6 million tonnes. In order to rebuild stocks, world wheat production during 2008-09 should at least be in the region of 650 million tonnes or close to 8 per cent above previous year. This would mean significant increases in the EU, North America and Australia . Asian majors–China and India–are not expected to contribute significantly to the growth in wheat production due to some uncertainty surrounding weather and precipitation during critical period in the last three-four months.

 

Both corn and soybean prices will be influenced by acreage and production prospects in the US . No doubt soybean prices featured sharp upswing in the latter part of 2007 and continued to strengthen in early 2008 also and this is likely to influence a shift towards soybean cultivation in the current year. However, an equally buoyant demand for corn despite higher production is supporting corn also. Currently, the chances for significant increase in soybean acreage are more now and hence grain prices will continue to be stronger. While USDA’s acreage report is expected on March 31, a private analyst has projected soybean acreage for 2008-09 in the US to increase to 71.3 million acres from 63.6 million acres and that of corn to decline from 93.6 million acres to 87.5 million acres. In India , we are likely to witness further expansion in soybean acreage due to highly attractive prices that the commodity has fetched so far in the season.

 

Insurance

ICICI Bank and its insurance arm, ICICI Lombard, has come under the scanner of fair trade practices body MRTPC for imposing “unfair and unjust” conditions on insurance cover for its credit card customers.

 

The Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority (IRDA) has cleared four more insurance joint ventures (JVs) at one go, namely, Aegon Religare Life Insurance, Bharti Axa General Insurance, Canara HSBC OBC Life Insurance and DLP Pramerica Life Insurance. In each of the three new life insurers and one general insurer, the foreign partners hold the maximum permissible stake of 26 per cent.  There are now 15 life insurers and 13 general insurers in the country, including the state-owned companies. Going by the trend, while banks are rushing to get into the life insurance sector, not many are entering the general insurance sector. Analysts believe that the general insurance business may be a complex one for the banks while life insurance products have direct synergies with the banks’ savings and investment products.

 

Corporate Sector

An inter-ministerial group (IMG) has cleared the $8 billion (Rs 32,000 crore) CTL project of the Tata group and its partner Sasol of South Africa, the world’s largest producer of oil from coal. For the CTL plant in India , Sasol will use the Fischer Tropsch technology, which converts the syngas, extracted from coal into oil, which in turn can be refined to produce diesel, naphtha, jet fuel, LPG and lubricants. The project would save over $25 billion for the exchequer through crude import substitution.

 

The $11 billion diversified Russian conglomerate, Sistema, has drawn up mega plans for India , which includes major investments in its core businesses of telecommunications, as well as in the real estate and financial services.

 

Tata-Motors have signed a deal to receive a $3 billion, one-year bridge loan from Citigroup and JP Morgan to help finance a potential purchase of luxury brands of Jaguar and Land Rover.

 

Telecom

Tech Mahindra (TM), the Rs 2,929 crore Indian IT company, has signed a five-year deal valued in excess of $350 million with British Telecom. As per the deal, TM will provide application maintenance and support services for BT’s business critical BSS and OSS applications and platforms.

 

The Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has permitted BSNL and MTNL to provide full mobility services on the CDMA platform. This provides the two-state owned telecom companies a level playing field vis-à-vis their private sector counterparts. Presently, BSNL and MTNL are providing full mobility services using GSM technology, while CDMA based WLL services are for limited mobility purposes. Last year, they have sought the government’s permission to upgrade their CDMA platforms.

Macroeconomic Indicators

Table 1 : Index Numbers of Industrial Production (1993-94 =100)

Table 2 : Production in Infrastructure Industries (Physical Output Series)

Table 3: Procurment, Offtake and Stock of foodgrains

Table 4: Index Numbers of  Wholesale Prices (1993-94 = 100)

Table 5 : Cost of Living Indices

Table 6 : Budgetary Position of Government of India

Table 7 : Government Borrowing Programmes and Performance

Table 8 : Scheduled Commercial Banks - Business in India  

Table 9 : Money Stock : components and Sources

Table 10 : Reserve Money : Components and Sources

Table 11 : Average Daily Turnover in Call Money Market

Table 12 : Assistance Sanctioned and Disbursed by All-India Financial Institutions

Table 13 : Capital Market

Table 14 : Foreign Trade

Table 15 : India's Overall Balance of Payments

Table 16 : Foreign Investment Inflows  
Table 17 : Foreign Collaboration Approvals (Route-Wise)
Table 18 : Year-Wise (Route-Wise) Actual Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI/NRI)

Table 19 : NRI Deposits - Outstandings

Table 20 : Foreign Exchange Reserves

Table 21 : Indices REER and NEER of the Indian Rupee

Table 22 : Turnover in Foreign Exchange Market  
Table 23 : India's Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity [As reported under the IMFs special data dissemination standards (SDDS)
Table 24 : Settlement Volume and Netting Factor for Government Securities Transactions Settled at CCIL - Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Basis.
Table 25 : Inter-Catasegory Distribution of All Types of Trade in Government Securities Settled at CCIL (With Market Share in Respective Trade Types) 
Table 26 : Settlement Volume and Netting Factor for Total Forex Transactions Settled at CCIL - Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Basis.
Table 27 : Inter-Category Distribution of Total Foreign Exchange Transactions Settled at CCIL (With Market Share in Respective Trade Types) 

 

 

Memorandum Items

CSO's Quarterly Estimates of GDP  

GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity

India's Overall Balance of Payments  

*These statistics and the accompanying review are a product arising from the work undertaken under the joint ICICI research centre.org-EPWRF Data Base Project.

LIST OF WEEKLY THEMES


 

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