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Current Economic Statistics and Review For the Week 
Ended May 10, 2008 (19th Weekly Report of 2008)

 

Theme of the week:

 

Structured Finance: An Unchartered Territory

 

 

1. The Background

Definition of Structured Finance

Structured finance is a form of securatisation of underlying direct assets, but it is more complex than mere securitisation. It involves tailoring a product to the risk-return profile and maturity requirements of the borrower. It is usually an improvement over traditional loan financing products, in that under such financing structures, the lender does not look at the entity as a risk but tries to align the financing to specific cash accruals of the borrowers. It encompasses all advanced private and public financial arrangements that efficiently refinance and hedge any profitable economic activity beyond the scope of conventional forms of on-balance sheet securities (debt, bonds and equity) in the effort to lower cost of capital and mitigate agency costs of market impediments on liquidity. 

Structured finance instruments can be defined with the help of their distinct characteristics which are three: (i) pooling of assets (either cash-based or synthetically created); (ii) delinking of the credit risk of the collateral asset pool from the credit risk of the originator, usually through the transfer of the underlying assets to a finite-lived, standalone special purpose vehicle (SPV); and (iii) tranching of liabilities that are backed by the asset pool. While the first two characteristics are also present with classical pass-through securitisations, the tranching of liabilities sets structured finance products apart.   

 

The Sub-Prime Crisis in the US : Exposes the Innovation

The second half of 2007 has witnessed the first major casualty of the developments in the structured finance in the US , which has been massive and complex, that is, threatening to affect the stability of the real economy there and also impinge on the rest of the world. Until then, structured finance was the harbinger of the modern finance as it spurred innovation, which allowed issuers to package and repackage securities by transferring illiquid securities into liquid assets. It allowed banks to remove assets from their balance sheets, thus liberating capital for other uses. The structured finance has grown progressively into such complex structures over the years since the 1970s that its has now become so difficult to assess the actual risks and returns profile.

The sub-prime crisis in the US has unraveled the underlying complexity of these instruments and its potential to assume a grave threat to the economic stability. It has also demonstrated the weaknesses in the regulatory framework and their extensive surveillance systems. No doubt, the US Fed has resorted to a number of unconventional measures to contain the risks emanating from the unfettered expansion of the structured finance.

  There has emerged significant uncertainty about the valuations and disclosures of structured instruments; counterparty risk remains a concern; and the balance sheets of financial institutions have been weakened. As a result, important questions are being asked about whether structured finance products provided the intended benefits, the extent to which these products increased the risk of a crisis and exacerbated its consequences, and the need for both the official and private sectors to address systemic weaknesses (IMF April 2008).

This crisis has raised serious concerns about the counterparty risks involved in situations of crisis, the role of credit rating agencies and the premium placed on AAA ratings, the instruments and techniques used for measurement of risks such as value-at-risk (VAR) and the extent of allocation of risks through such derivative instruments.

 

2. Status in India

It is against the above development, that we review in this note the growth of the structured finance in India . The development of structured finance has been of a relatively recent origin as the first widely reported securitisation deal in India dates back to 1990 when Citibank securitised auto loans and placed a paper with GIC mutual fund. Since then, a variety of deals have been undertaken. Asset classes chosen have concentrated mostly on auto and hire purchase receivables of NBFCs. According to some estimates, 35 per cent of all securitisation deals between 1992 and 1998 related to hire purchase receivables of trucks and the rest towards other auto/ transport segment receivables.   Apart from these, some innovative deals have also been struck. Earlier, in 1994-95, SBI Cap structured an innovative deal where a pool of future cash flows of high value customers of Rajasthan State Industrial and Development Corporation was securitised. An oil monetisation deal has been structured where the future flows of oil receivables accruing to a company was securitised. Real estate developers have securitised receivables arising out of installment sales. The securitisation deal of Larsen & Toubro has opened a new vista for financing power projects. The deal was a securitisation of lease receivables even before the plant was completed. Thus, this securitisation deal financed even the asset creation.

Growth of different segments

Table 1: Trend in Structured Finance Issuance Volumes (In Rs billion)

 

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

ABS

36.4

80.9

222.9

178.5

234.2

RMBS

14.8

29.6

33.4

50.1

16.1

CDO/LSO*

24.3

28.3

25.8

21.0

119.2

PG**

1.9

0.0

16.0

0.0

0.0

Others

0.4

0.1

10.0

6.8

0.0

Total

77.8

138.9

308.1

256.4

369.5

Notes: * LSO stands for securitisation of individual corporate loans or loansell-off ; ** stands for Partial Guarantee.

Source: Update on Indian Structured Finance Market, Icra, 2007

As per ICRA's estimates, the structured issuance volumes have grown from Rs. 7,700 crore in 2003 to Rs. 36,900 crore in 2006-07. The growth in 2006-07 has been primarily on account of securitization of single corporate loans, which accounted for nearly a third of the total volume. However, asset-backed securities (ABS) is the largest product class at more than 60 per cent, with securitization of retail loans remaining popular. The growth of ABS market can be attributed to a number of factors such as the growing retail loan portfolios held by banks and other financial institutions, investors' familiarity with the underlying assets class the relatively short tenor of such issues. Growth of the residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) market has been slower despite the growth in the underlying housing finance market mainly due to the relatively long tenor, lack of secondary market liquidity and the risk arising from prepayment/repricing of the underlying loans. The most remarkable development in 2007 has been the growth of corporate loan securatisation. The securatisation of individual corporate loans (termed as loan sell-off or LSO) has grown many times in 2006-07 (Table 1 and Chart 1) to around Rs 11,700 crore as against Rs 2,100 crore in the previous year. Consequently, LSO’s share in the total securatisation activity rose to around 32 per cent, much higher than the 8 per cent it had in the previous two years. The key players in this segment are private sector banks and certain NBFCs, while the borrowers are mostly home finance companies and NBFCs as also various mid-sized corporate entities. The tenure of these loans is less than one year. One common structure, however, is a longer tenure loan, with an annual call/put option, wherein under securatisation transaction, it is mandatory for the SPV (which is the legal owner of the loan post-securatisation) to exercise the loan recall option at the end of one year, thereby effectively ensuring a one-year tenure for the investor. Lenders often originate loans with the specific intention of securitizing them, sometimes within a day of disbursement. Thus, the originator’s funds are locked for a minimal period and the gain on securitisation is akin to a non-fund –based income for the originator. Borrowers often prefer the loan route to the bond route of raising funds, since the latter requires greater disclosure and documentation, thus often being more time-consuming. However, ICRA opines that the certain single loan sell-off transactions do not get reported in the public domain; the market size could be higher than ICRA’s estimate to that extent.

RBI guidelines Restraint Growth

Following the guidelines on securitisation issued by the RBI in February 2006, various originators slowed down their securitisation activity, preferring direct assignment of loan pools to investors, which is not covered by the securitisation guidelines, rather than transfer the receivables to a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) and issue Pass-Through Certificates (PTCs) to multiple investors. The tight liquidity conditions and the resulting rise in interest rates also moderated the growth. Nevertheless, continued growth in retail loan portfolios drove some of the key players to securities a significant portion of their assets.    

The volume in ABS securities has been rising continuously from 2002-03 but dipped in 2005-06 and then it has again risen in 2006-07 to Rs 234 billion. The above mentioned guidelines which prohibits originators from booking profit up-front at the time of securitisation, stipulate a higher capital charge on credit enhancements provided, and disallow release of credit enhancement during the course of the transaction. With these guidelines coming into force, the attraction of securitisation as a tool for capital relief and profit booking has declined (Icra 2007).

Legal Framework

In 2002, India enacted a law “Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interests Act, 2002”, more commonly called SARFAESI Act. The act deals with an instrument called “security receipt”, but since only securitisation or asset reconstruction companies under the SARFAESI Act can issue security receipts, the act is limited to asset reconstruction companies only. The origin of the SARFAESI Act was essentially the presence of huge non-performing assets but it helped to propogate the creation of an innovative instrument.

However the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Amendment Bill, 2007 passed by Lok Sabha in month of May 2007 amended Securities Contract (Regulation) Act to include “securitised instruments” in the definition of “securities” as defined in Securities Contract (Regulation) Act. The amendment is made to allow listing of securitised debt on stock exchanges and therefore, make the market more liquid. SEBI has been empowered to write regulations for public offers and listing, and it has come up with draft regulations which is placed on its website. Instead of falling in line with similar public offer rules for asset-backed securities in other countries, for example, SEBI has drawn heavily on its own template in the context of mutual funds and similar market intermediaries. Thus, for a securitised instrument to be offered to public, there has to be a special purpose distinct entity (read SPV). While the normal concept of SPVs is a discrete body for each transaction, SEBI's idea seems to be some kind of a continuing umbrella entity that would serve several transactions in a sequence. Hence, there is a need for registration of such entity, and such registration must be maintained on a continuous basis. A single SPV can come up with several transactions of securitisation, called "schemes", again in line with mutual fund parlance. Hence, the SPV becomes a kind of protected cell or multisegmented entity, though the law in India currently does not have any cell protection rules. Once the SPV is registered, it can, over time, bring public offers by having an offer document, which would also need to be registered with SEBI.

Nature of RBI guidelines

As referred to above, RBI guidelines have introduced a degree of restraint in the secuartisation process. These guidelines have been issued in the light of the differing practices followed by banks in India and certain concerns on accounting, valuation and capital treatment, the RBI issued formal guidelines in February 2006 after extensive consultation with market participants. The guidelines are largely in line with those issued by other supervisors internationally and envisage the following:

§          Detailed set of guidelines to ensure 'arms' length relationship between the originator and the SPV

§          Credit enhancements provided by the originator for first as well as second losses to be deducted from the capital. For the first loss facility, the deduction is capped at the amount of capital that the bank would have been required to hold for the full value of assets. Thus a disincentive is created for an originator trying to provide second loss facility also. (However, the proposed Basel II  uidelines envisage risk weight for securitized exposures, depending upon rating, will range from 20 per cent to 400 per cent or even deduction from capital);

§          Any profit/premium arising on account of sale not allowed to be booked upfront and is to be amortised over the life of the securities issued or to be issued by the SPV

§          Provision of liquidity facility to be treated as an off- balance sheet item and attract 100 per cent credit conversion factor as well as 100 per cent risk weight.

§          Disclosure by the originator, as notes to accounts, presenting a comparative position for two years: total number and book value of loan assets securitised; sale consideration received for the securitised assets and gain/loss on sale on account of securitisation; form and quantum (outstanding value) of services provided by way of credit enhancement, liquidity support, post-securitisation asset servicing, etc.

In the context of recent global events, the above guidelines will go a long way in laying the foundation for a healthy structured credit market in India , so opines Dr Shyamla Gopinath. She further says that while much of the activity is concentrated in foreign and a few private sector banks, increasingly public sector banks are also participating in this market as market makers and not just as users. Their participation is dependent on development of skills, adapting technology and developing sound risk management practices. Corporates are also active in these markets. While derivatives are very useful for hedging and risk transfer, and hence improve market efficiency, it is necessary to keep in view the risks of excessive leverage, lack of transparency particularly in complex products, difficulties in valuation, tail risk exposures, counterparty exposure and hidden systemic risk. Clearly, there is need for greater transparency to capture the market, credit as well as liquidity risks in off-balance sheet positions and providing capital therefor. From the corporate point of view, understanding the product and inherent risks over the life of the product is extremely important. Further development of the market will also hinge on adoption of international accounting standards and disclosure practices by all market participants, including corporates.

However, the recent data shows that the growth of traditional ABS and RMBS has slowed while that of single corporate loan sell out has increased. It is necessary that the growth have to be supported in a well-regulated and transparent manner. It would be a welcome development if RBI itself began disseminating data regarding securitisation, it would increase the transparency.     

Conclusion

There is a need for the growth of derivatives but not too complex and its should be transparent and well regulated. Here it is worth noting the conclusion of the IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) 2008, it is that, although structured finance can be beneficial by allowing risks to be diversified, some complex and multi-layered products added little economic value to the financial system. Further, they have very likely exacerbated the depth and duration of the crisis by adding uncertainty relating to their valuation as the underlying fundamentals deteriorated. The recovery of the structured market will likely entail more standardized products, at least for some time to come, and better disclosure both at origination and subsequently. To this end, policy measures should aim to strengthen design and market weaknesses and to close the regulatory gaps in structured finance, without impeding innovation.

__________

* This note has been prepared by Piyusha Hukeri

 

Reference:

BIS (2005): Structurted finance: complexity, risk and the use of ratings, Quarterly Review, June

Gopinath S (2007): Indian Derivatives Market - A Regulatory and Contextual Perspective, RBI Bulletin, November

Icra (2007): Update on Structured Finance, July

IMF (2008): Global Financial Stability Report, Containing Systemic Risks and Restoring Financial Soundness, April

Kothari V (2007): Indian Securitisation- Regulatory and Market Scenario Vinod Kothari’s website, August

            Reddy Y V (1999): Securitisation in India : Next Steps, RBI Bulletin

 

 

 

Highlights of  Current Economic Scene

AGRICULTURE  

As per the records available with the ministry of agriculture, the procurement of wheat for the ongoing rabi marketing session 2008-09 has crossed 18 million tonnes against the target of 15 million tonnes. It has been 62 per cent higher than the total procurement of wheat (11.13 million tonne) during 2007-08. Out of the total procurement, Punjab and Haryana has contributed more than 74 per cent with procurement in Punjab standing at 9.39 million tonnes and that in Haryana exceeding 5.04 million tonnes. Other states that have contributed include Uttar Pradesh 1.34 million tonne, Madhya Pradesh 1.26 million tonne, Rajasthan 0.70 million tonne and Gujarat 0.17 million tonne. The procurement by the state owned agencies like Food Corporation of India (FCI) and other state agencies has been 92 per cent of the total arrivals of 19.6 million tonnes in various mandis across the country, which has been nearly double of the procurement made by state agencies  (9.06 million tonnes) a year ago. The increasing levels of procurement are likely to reduce the upward pressure on wheat prices in domestic market.

 

According to preliminary forecasts by FAO, rice production in Asia, Africa and Latin America is projected to grow by about 2.3 per cent reaching a new record level of 666 million tonnes in 2008 surpassing the benchmark of 600 million tonnes. However, world rice prices are expected to remain high in the short term, as the quantum of rice harvested would not show much variation by the end of the 2008 and cyclone struck in the Myanmar had destroyed the paddy crops of dry season. Assuming normal rains in the coming months, rice production in Africa is forecasted to grow by 3.6 per cent to 23.2 million tonnes in 2008, with large expansions anticipated in Ivory Coast , Egypt , Ghana , Guinea , Mali and Nigeria . Paddy production in Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to rebound by 7.4 per cent to 26.2 million tonnes in 2008. Production is expected to fall in the countries like Australia , the United States and Europe .

 

The central government has suspended futures trading in channa (gram), refined soya oil, potato and rubber for four months in an attempt to contain the price rise in essential commodities and to curb the spiralling inflation rate in the country. The Forward Markets Commission (FMC) has issued the order on May 7, 2008 with an immediate effect because the government has been receiving a number of complaints against speculative trading in agri futures trading.

 

Prices of red and black gram are likely to move up due to possible delay in shipments of 50,000 tonnes, owing to occurrence of cyclone in the major exporting nation Myanmar . India imports 50 per cent of pulses from Myanmar annually. In Delhi spot market, prices of major pulses have risen by about 11 per cent since January 2008, while in Latur (a major trading center of Maharashtra ) tur dal was traded at Rs  2,700 per quintal and urad was quoted at Rs 2,200 per quintal.

 

According to Solvent Extractor Association (SEA), exports of oilmeal in April 2008 have risen by 46 per cent to 637,500 from the same month a year ago, due to robust demand from overseas countries like Vietnam and South Korea , Thailand and Japan .

 

As per National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation (NAFED), exports of onion are likely to increase by about 12 per cent in the first month of financial year 2008-09 helped by lower minimum export price (MEP). India had exported 9.96 lakh tonnes of onions in 2007-08 as compared with 11.61 lakh tonnes in previous year. In value terms, exports have declined marginally to Rs 1,116 crore from Rs 1,135 crore during the same period.

 

Maharashtra sugar mills are operating at poor recovery of 4-5 per cent following the threat of government taking a stern action if they have left the crop untouched in their allocated area. The state has witnessed bumper sugarcane production of 840 lakh tonnes spread over a total acreage of 12 lakh hectares during sugar season (October-September 2007-08), as against the total cane output of 790 lakh tonnes of last year. Out of the 183 registered sugar mills in Maharashtra , only 166 have begun production this year. In kolahapur region, 30 sugar mills have shut down while remaining 121 mills are expected to continue crushing activities by the last week of May 2008. The state has crushed 700 lakh tonnes of cane so far with an average recovery of 12 per cent. But the extension in crushing period is likely to extract hardly 2 lakh tonnes of sugar by crushing an anticipated 65 lakh tonnes of cane. Hence, the average recovery in Maharashtra is likely to decline to 11.5 per cent or even lesser by the end of the current crushing season.

 

According to coffee board statistics, Indian coffee exports (permit issued), during the period January-April 2008, have seen an upsurge of around 4 per cent to 92,000 tonnes, as against last year's exports of 88,470 tonnes. Indian coffee prices in the international market have come down by 30 per cent during the same period. As per the International Coffee Organisation (ICO), global exports in the first six months of coffee year 2007-08 have dropped by nearly 5 per cent to 46.41 million bags as compared to 48.82 million bags in the same period last year. Arabica exports during April-March 2007-08 have amounted to 62.78 million bags as compared to 62.84 million bags a year ago, whereas Robusta exports have amounted to 32.41 million bags as against 32.96 million bags last year. 

 

Export of coir products for the financial year 2007-08 have witnessed a rise of 11.15 per cent to 1,87,566 tonnes in volume against 1,68,755 tonnes exported last year. However, in value terms, exports have declined by 2 per cent to Rs 592.88 crore as compared with Rs 605 crore in the corresponding period of the previous years due to appreciation of rupee against dollar.

South India Cotton Association (SICA) has sought an extension of the technology mission on cotton (TMC) for another 5 years, with the aim to improve the technology on better quality cotton seeds and seed oriented R&D. The central government-sponsored programme is aimed at developing India ’s raw cotton base both quantitatively and qualitatively.

Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF) has urged central government to impose a 20 per cent duty on export of oilmeal so that the dairy farmers would get cattle feed at affordable rates.

The central government has decided to provide subsidy to all co-operative milk-marketing institutions for switching over to natural vanilla as a flavoured ingredient in their various milk-based products. It has also planned to introduce different subsidies to bifurcate the prices of natural and synthetic vanilla. Natural vanilla essence is quoted to be at 1,500 per kg while, the synthetic vanilla is ruling at around Rs 500 per kg. Kerala State Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation (Milma) along with Amul has currently switched over to use natural vanilla for making ice creams and other products.

PepsiCo India would be procuring 5,500 tonnes of barley cultivated in Rajasthan by the end of rabi season 2007-08; as this state is involved in contract farming process the for UB group. The company has planed to increase the coverage by 20 per cent next year and is expected to triple the production of two-row variety, mostly utilised for making of better quality malt.

Industry

A fall in the rate of growth in IIP had seen during March 2008. The growth in the index of industrial production during March 2008 at 3.0 is only about one-fifth of that in  March 2007 (14.8 per cent). All the three major groups contributed for this performance. As a result during the fiscal year 2007-08 IIP index rose by 8.1 per cent as compared to 11.6 per cent last year. Mining sector and electricity sector grew by 3.8 per cent and 3.7 per cent during the month. The growth of manufacturing sector is at 2.96 per cent during March 2008 has been way below to that of 16.0 per cent recorded last March. Out of the 17 industries, five industries declined and four industries registered double digit growth.. As per use-based classification, the sect oral growth rates in March 2008 over March 2007 are 3.1 per cent in basic goods industries, 8.6 per cent in capital goods and 3.5 per cent in intermediate goods. Consumer goods recorded a decline of 0.1 per cent.

Infrastructure

Riding on the back of good performance of coal, electricity and cement the index of six core infrastructure industries having a combined weight of 26.7 per cent in the index of industrial production with base 1993-94 registered an impressive growth of 8.7 per cent during February 2008 as compared to 7.6 per cent in February 2007. This impressive performance exhibited by  the  core industries in February 2008 resulting the core index registering a growth of 5.6 per cent during the fiscal so far as against 8.7 last year. All the six-core industries witnessed better performance during February 2008 compared to January 2008.. Thus refinery products, electricity, cement, steel and coal all contributed for the higher rate of growth.

Inflation

The annual rate of inflation calculated on a point-to-point basis, rose by 7.61 per cent for the week ended April 26,2008 as compared 7.57 per cent as on April 28,2007.

Index of Primary Articles group rose by 0.3 per cent to 238.6 from 237.9 for the previous week. Food articles group rose by 0.5 per cent. Index of non-food articles rose by 0.2 per cent

The index for the major group Fuel, Power, Light and Lubricants remained stationary.

Price index of Manufactured products also remained unchanged during the week.

The final WPI for all commodities had been revised upward from 222.35 to 220.0 for the week ended March 01,28. As a result the rate of inflation calculated on a point-to-point basis stood at 6.21 per cent as compared to 5.11 percent provisional.

Banking

Leading private sector lender Axis Bank, which has recorded a 70.6 per cent rise in net profit to Rs 361 crore in the fourth quarter 2007-08 has made contingent provisions of Rs 72 crore as on March 31, 2008 on account of mark-to-market losses arising from derivatives trades incurred by two customers. These customers have repudiated certain transactions and have sued the bank.

The country’s largest bank, SBI is making a provision of Rs 40 crore towards potential losses owing to the meltdown in global credit markets. Earlier, two major private sector banks – ICICI Bank and Axis Bank – announced they had taken hits on account of similar developments. Axis Bank has provided for Rs 72 crore, while its customers had suffered Rs 674 crore in mark-to-market derivatives losses.

Kotak Mahindra Bank has recorded a net profit of Rs 69 crore in the fourth quarter of 2007-08 has made a provision of Rs 86 crore towards mark-to-market (MTM) losses on derivative-trading. Also, the bank’s customers have negative MTM exposures of Rs 612 crore in forex derivative transactions.

Financial Sector

Capital Markets

Primary Market

Indiabulls Real Estate has been planning to make an initial public offering (IPO) of a real estate investment trust in Singapore . As per the companies notice to the Indian stock exchanges the company has filed its prospectus with Monetary Authority of Singapore for its Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust (IPIT). This is the third Indian company, after DLF and Unitech to consider overseas listing of its Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT)

Aishwarya Telecom Ltd, a manufacturer of test and measurement instruments, listed on the BSE at Rs 50.10, as against its issue price of Re. 35 per share, which is a premium of 43.14 per cent on May 07,2008. The scrip closed at Rs 90.85 on the BSE, which is 159.57 per cent over its issue price. A total of 8.28 crore shares of Aishwarya Telecom was traded on the BSE. ATL had entered capital market with an IPO 40 lakh equity shares. The issue has been subscribed 20 times.

Anu’s Laboratories is to enter the capital markets with an IPO of 38.2 lakh equity shares on May 12, and will close on May 15,2008. The company has fixed the price band between Rs 200 and Rs 210 per share. The issue will comprise a reservation of up to 2 lakh equity shares for employees and a net issue to the public of 36.2 lakh equity shares. The issue will constitute 31.6 per cent of the fully diluted post issue paid-up capital of the company.

Secondary Market

The stock markets experienced five consecutive losing sessions during the week as rising crude prices and inflation disturbed the sentiments. The market also more or less tracked the global markets. The BSE Sensex was down 863 points or 4.90 per cent at 16,737 points. The NSE Nifty closed at 4,983 points, down by 246 points or 4.69 per cent. Smaller stocks registered gains lower than those recoreded by large cap stocks. The Defty was down 6.68 per cent. The CNX Nifty Junior was down 7.5 per cent, while the BSE 500 was down 4.9 per cent and the Nifty Midcap 50 was down 5.95 per cent.

Among the sectoral indices of BSE, all the stocks under performed during the week with highest losses recorded by Reality at 9.5 per cent followed by Capital goods and Bankex by 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively.

In a move aimed at reducing risks from defaults in the derivative segment that will help stock market investors and brokers use their margin funds efficiently the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) approved cross-margining across cash and derivatives segments on May 05, 2008. This means if an investor is buying a stock in which he already has a short position in the futures segment, he will not have to pay margin twice over. The capital market regulator has stated in its circular that for positions in the cash market that have corresponding offsetting positions in the stock futures, value at risk (VaR) margin shall not be levied on the 0cash market position. However, it will be only to the extent of the offsetting stock futures market position. The SEBI circular also indicated that near-month stock futures positions would not be considered for cross-margin benefit three days before expiry (the last Thursday of every month). Meanwhile, extreme loss margin (ELM) and marked-to-market margin (MTM) shall continue to be levied on the entire cash-market position and there will be no change in the margins on the F&O positions.

In a move to streamline the process of getting information, SEBI has made some changes in the format on May 06,2008, in which periodic information has been filed by merchant bankers, bankers to issues, debenture trustees, registrars to issues and share transfer. Now, the aforementioned entities need to file the information in electronic form and not in hard copy, as was the earlier practice. SEBI has been trying to make intermediaries and market participants more accountable by seeking information from them on a regular basis and by bringing in reforms in various processes.

Bombay Stock Exchange’s (BSE) search for a partner to launch a bond index has been come to an end as Asia’s oldest stock exchange is close to joining hands with ICICI Securities Primary Dealership — a subsidiary of ICICI Securities — to use its bond index. The move comes in the wake of capital markets regulator SEBI, asking both the premier stock exchanges to launch a bond index in its endeavour to change the predominantly OTC bond market to a screen-based one. According to persons familiar with the development, the exchange has already indicated its willingness to use the bond dealer’s index named i-BEX that has been used by many of the fund houses.

According to a report released by Value Research, mutual funds (MFs) made a turnaround in April after three months of negative performance. In, all categories of funds, on an average, gave positive returns with the diversified equity gaining 8.36 per cent. The returns have varied between a high of 17.3 per cent and a low of 1.69 per cent. The majorities have returned between 7 per cent and 11 per cent. This was broadly in line with the BSE Sensex that gained 10.5 per cent and the S&P CNX Nifty, which gained 9.2 per cent. The only losers in the last month were gold ETFs, which track the price of gold. These funds lost 6 per cent during the month in line with the performance of the yellow metal in international markets.     

Derivatives 

During the week, the volumes were stable and there was lower volatility. The Nifty fell by 4.7 per cent last week, there was no big swing session and the intra-day range stayed on the low side. The sell off triggered a rise in the VIX from 22 till 27.   Apart from volatility and implied volatility, other indicators such as the futures’ premium/ discount situations with respect to various underlying, and the put-call ratios are all inside the normal range.  In the index futures market, the Nifty (and Mini-Nifty) are the only contracts with liquidity in the mid and far series. The open interest (OI) has grown substantially as well. But, the differential between the Nifty spot-future is negligible, and the differentials between the respective futures' contracts are even smaller. The CNX Nifty Junior and the Nifty Midcap 50 futures are both trading at significant premiums to the spot levels. The Bank Nifty is the only contract that is trading at an appreciable discount. The CNX IT outperformed the general market and the May future is trading at a negligible discount to the spot. The IT sector held its ground due to the drop in the rupee. In the options market, the overall put-call ratio (PCR) is at 0.94, which is mildly overbought. The PCR in Nifty options in terms of OI is a better trading indicator. It is within normal levels as well. The overall PCR (OI) is at 1.36, while the PCR (OI) for May contracts is at 1.14.  In the stock futures segment, majority of F&O stocks declined in the last week  

Government Securities Market

Primary Market

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) conducted the auction of the 7.59 per cent 2016 and 7.95 per cent 2032 for the notified amount of Rs.6,000 crore and Rs.4,000 crore respectively on May 9,2008. The cut-off yield of the securities was 7.96 per cent and 8.35 per cent, respectively.

RBI re-issued 7.59 per cent 2016 and 7.95 per cent 2032 for Rs.6,000 crore and 4,000 crore on May 09,2008, at the cut-off yields of 7.96 per cent and 8.35 per cent, respectively.  

On May 07, 2008, RBI auctioned 91-day and 364-day T-bills for the notified amounts of Rs.3,000 crore and Rs.3,500 crore(out of which Rs 2,500 crore under (MSS) respectively. The cut-off yields for 91-day and 364-day T-bills were 7.31 per cent and 7.55 per cent, respectively.  

Secondary Market

The call rates moved around 4.77-5.56 per cent during the week. In the LAF reverse repo window, the RBI mopped up an average of Rs 41,135 crore. The cumulative CBLO volumes for the week rose to Rs 2,31,356 crore from Rs 2,29,173 crore. The banking system was awash with liquidity ahead of the second phase of the CRR rate hike and bond auctions.

Bond Market

On May 06, 2008, RBI has set the rate of interest on the Floating Rate Bonds, 2016 (FRB, 2016) applicable for the year May 7, 2008 to May 6, 2009 at 7.49 per cent per annum.

During the week under review, one development finance institution, three non-banking financial companies, one central undertaking and one corportae have tapped the market by issuing bonds. 

 Profile of Major Commercial Bond Issues During May 02-09,2008.

   

Foreign Exchange Market

The rupee closed at Rs.41.38 per dollar on May 09, 2008 as compared with Rs. 40.65 as on May 02,2008. The Rupee moved between Rs. 40.55 and Rs.41.79, with a standard deviation of 51 paise during the week. The rupee fell 2.34 per cent to 41.59 per dollar under pressure from record crude prices that kept demand from oil companies constant. General short covering and technical factors put additional pressure on the rupee, especially in the absence of support from the stock market. The rupee hit a year’s low level of 41.80 per dollar mid-week. The sharp increase in spot rate pushed the annualised forward premia lower. The six-month forward premia closed at 1.21 per cent (annualized) on May 09, 2008 vis-à-vis 1.94 per cent on May 02,2008.

CEOs and treasury heads of companies sitting on large marked-to-market (MTM) losses on their foreign exchange derivatives deals will heave a sigh of relief. Because the Swiss franc has depreciated 8.76 per cent since it touched an all-time high of 0.9636 against the US dollar on March 17, 2008. The Swiss franc was the choice of currency for companies entering into cros s-currency swaps. It was perceived to be more stable than the yen (which is more volatile) as the Swiss franc had not breached the 1.10-level against the dollar.

Commodities Futures derivatives

The government has suspended futures trading in channa (gram) refined soyoil, potato and rubber for four months in an attempt to contain the price rise in essential commodities and curb the spiralling inflation rate in the country, as the government data showed that India's inflation hit a 42-month high of 7.57 per cent in the week ending April 19, 2008. The Forward Markets Commission (FMC) has issued the order on May 07,2008,with immediate effect because the government has been receiving a number of complaints against speculative trading in agri futures trading. A section of agri industry leaders and commodity traders have also been pleading for a ban on future strading in essential commodities, as they said futures trading has been leading to speculation and price rise. According to FMC Chairman B C Khatua, the ban may not curb inflation in the coming weeks, as there is no direct link between inflation and futures trading, but would surely affect the turnover of commodity exchanges.

According to National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd (NCDEX)'s Managing Director and CEO, R Ramaseshan, the NCDEX, may witness a 20 per cent decline in volume due to the ban imposed on chana, rubber, potato and soyoil. It is a cause of concern as chana and soyoil contributes 20 per cent of our turnover. The volume of futures trading in rubber and potato is not very significant. The exchange daily volume was estimated at Rs 2,000 crore and chana and soyoil contributes around Rs 400-500 crore worth turnover.

The government's decision to ban four more commodities from futures market has spawned a demand for suspension of forward trading in gold, silver and sugar as the industry blames speculation for volatility in prices. The All India Sarafa Association, an umbrella body for bullion traders, has written to the Prime Minister and Finance Minister seeking a ban in futures trading of gold and silver.         

The ban on commodity futures has fired up spot markets as traders use the lack of transparent price discovery and gaps in information to make a large profit. All vegetable oils flared up on Thursday, May 08,2008 as the ban on futures trading in soya oil came into effect. Oilseeds trading has also become highly active as a proxy for soyabean oil. The Indore-based NBoT, the hub of soya complex futures, launched two soyabean contracts on Thursday to capture this shift in trading interest. With no avenue left to hedge their risk in the domestic market, edible oil importers may shy away from contracting large soya and crude palm oil volumes overseas. That will further raise prices in the country by depleting the supply pipeline. All vegetable oils, including mustard, palmolein and soya, rose sharply on Thursday in the spot market after refineries and traders in the cash market upped the ante.

According to a senior government official, the ban on futures trading of wheat, rice, tur and urad may remain suspended even though the Abhijit Sen Committee has found no conclusive evidence to suggest that forward trade leads to price rise. However, the Consumer Affairs Ministry is considering any proposal to ban more commodities. The Ministry is currently studying the Abhijit Sen Committee's report, based on which it would prepare a note for further action.

Multi Commodity Exchange of India, the country’s leading commodity bourse, has launched futures contracts in gold, with a minimum size of eight grams, effective from Thursday May 08,2008. The ‘Gold Guinea’ would have two contracts, July and August 2008. Trading unit of the contract would be eight grams and maximum order size would be 10 kg with tick size (minimum price movement) of Re 1 per eight grams. According to the exchange circular whenever the daily price limit is hit, the limit shall be relaxed up to 6 per cent and such relaxation from the present daily price limit is done, the exchange shall levy margin of equivalent percentage. The quality specifications would be 995 purity and should be serially-numbered gold guinea supplied by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) approved suppliers or other suppliers as may be approved by MCX, to be submitted along with suppliers quality certificate. MCX has notified the delivery centres at Ahmedabad, while the additional centres would be at New Delhi , Mumbai, Hyderabad , Bangalore , Chennai and Kolkata.       

State-owned MMTC Ltd expressed its confidence to start a commodity bourse in Haryana some time in 2009.According to MMTC Chairman and Managing Director Sanjiv Batra, the idea to set up an exchange in June last year was delayed due to FMC's new guidelines, which they received recently. After getting a formal nod from the regulator by May-end and the exchange will begin in the next year. The company would set up the exchange in joint venture with brokerage firm Indiabulls in which it would have a 26 per cent stake.

The commodities transaction tax (CTT) is likely to come into force within the next two months as the details which includes the collection, payment and the procedures for filing returns, will take some more time to be firmed up. The CTT, which will be administered by the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), will be levied at the rate of 0.017 per cent on sellers of commodity futures as well as options. Purchasers of options, who exercise them, will pay 0.125 per cent on the basis of per transaction value.

Insurance

In a first-of-its kind alliance, the country’s official reinsurer, GIC is collaborating with Germany’s Hannover Re, one of the top five reinsurance companies worldwide, to develop life reinsurance companies worldwide, to develop life reinsurance in the country.

IRDA has rejected the demands of third party administrators (TPAs), who provide claim servicing, to market cashless medical policies to customers.

 

Corporate Sector

Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group has floated a new company, to set up an Rs 10,000 crore cement project in Madhya Pradesh, marking the group’s foray into the sector. The first phase of the 20 million-tonne project will be completed by 2012-13. The first phase of 5 million tonne entails an investment of Rs 2,500 crore.

 

External Sector

Exports during the fiscal year 2007-08 was US $ 155512.49 million as against US $ 126413.99 million registering a growth of 23.02 per cent . As against this Imports was valued at US $ 235910.73 million as against US$ 185735.17 million recording a growth of 27.01 per cent.

In rupee terms, while export increased by 9.39 per cent , import flared up by 12.92 per cent.

As a result trade deficit was estimated at US $ 80398.24 million higher than the deficit at US $ 59321.18 million during April-March 2007-08.

Oil imports were estimated during the year at US$ 77033.57 million during  2007-08 and non-oil imports at US $ 158877.15 million

 

Telecom

The government is set to usher in mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs), allowing players without telecom licenses to provide services by buying bulk airtime from licenses and reselling it to consumers. TRAI has issued a consultation paper soliciting the views of various stakeholders on the subject.

Malaysia ’s Maxis Communication Bhd, owes 74 per cent share in Chennai-based mobile telephone operator Aircel. The company is planning to invest $4-5 billion (up to Rs 20,000 crore) over the next three years in rolling out its services across India .

About week after Airtel slashed its national long distance call rates and roaming charges the second largest GSM operator in the country, Vodafone-Essar announced cuts in its STD tariff to Rs 1.30 per minute, as against Airtel’s Rs 1.50 per minute. Vodafone slashed the roaming charges to Re 1 for all incoming and local charges to Re 1 for all incoming and local outgoing calls matching Airtel’s roaming charges.

Vodafone has inked a deal with Apple to become the first telecom operator to officially launch iPhone in the Indian market along with nine other countries.

   

Macroeconomic Indicators

Table 1 : Index Numbers of Industrial Production (1993-94 =100)

Table 2 : Production in Infrastructure Industries (Physical Output Series)

Table 3: Procurment, Offtake and Stock of foodgrains

Table 4: Index Numbers of  Wholesale Prices (1993-94 = 100)

Table 5 : Cost of Living Indices

Table 6 : Budgetary Position of Government of India

Table 7 : Government Borrowing Programmes and Performance

Table 8 : Scheduled Commercial Banks - Business in India  

Table 9 : Money Stock : components and Sources

Table 10 : Reserve Money : Components and Sources

Table 11 : Average Daily Turnover in Call Money Market

Table 12 : Assistance Sanctioned and Disbursed by All-India Financial Institutions

Table 13 : Capital Market

Table 14 : Foreign Trade

Table 15 : India's Overall Balance of Payments

Table 16 : Foreign Investment Inflows  
Table 17 : Foreign Collaboration Approvals (Route-Wise)
Table 18 : Year-Wise (Route-Wise) Actual Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI/NRI)

Table 19 : NRI Deposits - Outstandings

Table 20 : Foreign Exchange Reserves

Table 21 : Indices REER and NEER of the Indian Rupee

Table 22 : Turnover in Foreign Exchange Market  
Table 23 : India's Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity [As reported under the IMFs special data dissemination standards (SDDS)
Table 24 : Settlement Volume and Netting Factor for Government Securities Transactions Settled at CCIL - Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Basis.
Table 25 : Inter-Catasegory Distribution of All Types of Trade in Government Securities Settled at CCIL (With Market Share in Respective Trade Types) 
Table 26 : Settlement Volume and Netting Factor for Total Forex Transactions Settled at CCIL - Monthly, Quarterly and Annual Basis.
Table 27 : Inter-Category Distribution of Total Foreign Exchange Transactions Settled at CCIL (With Market Share in Respective Trade Types) 

 

Memorandum Items

CSO's Quarterly Estimates of GDP  

GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity

India's Overall Balance of Payments  

*These statistics and the accompanying review are a product arising from the work undertaken under the joint ICICI research centre.org-EPWRF Data Base Project.

LIST OF WEEKLY THEMES


 

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